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灯塔说
灯塔说
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复盘,交易思考: 上周五,非农数据强劲提高了加息预期,行情突破82K后回踩,但周末没有延续回踩,ETF流入给行情提供一定支撑,9月3日 BTC ETF 净流入约7.308 亿美元,9月4日继续净流入1.746 亿美元。 本周五有CPI数据,这是可能进一步影响9月加息预期的重要数据。 我的观点还是不变,目前宏观面重大潜在利空还是加息,但目前的美财政是不愿意加息的,美联储表面独立,实际上也不会加息,但更不会降息,如果通胀高,沃什会一直维持嘴上放鹰但不会加息的行动。 所以,议息前的利空是对行情的调整和回踩,小回踩就小多,如果大回踩就关注前面说的去96-97K前的72-73K二次上车点。 以上是大的思考方向! 黄金方面,前面4680调整还没结束,4300反弹4500符合反弹预期,后面会继续调整,调整后继续涨,起涨点继续关注4200附近。 日内方面:大饼等低多,78K左右,黄金关注4360-4380支撑,4460-4480附近压力,看区间调整 【仅个人交易观点分享,不构成任何投资建议】 $XAU $BTC
灯塔说
灯塔说
#沃勒:8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 Review: Yesterday, due to the decline in rate hike expectations, the US dollar fell, the 30-year long bond yield dropped, and both BTC and the gold market rose, breaking through the previous adjustment range. This round of macro bullish narrative continues, so the mid-term bullish view of 96-97K remains unchanged. Previously, shorted gold at the high point, took profit near 4300 and reversed to go long early, and also went long on Bitcoin early at 76300. Last Friday, Walsh's speech reminded that short-term bearish adjustments are opportunities, which again proved valuable. Although the daily resistance at the high level of 82300-82800 is strong, yesterday broke through 80K, and the 4-hour chart returned to a strong structure. Today, focus on whether the pullback near 79300-80K can hold, still mainly continuing to buy on dips. Tonight brings the first important non-farm payroll data for September. The small non-farm data the day before yesterday was positive. Today's non-farm data is not ideal for early positioning at the current high price, but both trend and technicals are bullish, so buying on dips is certain. If the non-farm data is poor and rate hike expectations further decline, 82K might be broken through in one go. If the non-farm data performs well, pressure will remain below 82K with continued high-level sideways adjustment, waiting for the September 17th rate decision to remain unchanged, which will also lead to an upward move. In summary, the current main theme is still macro bullish. The safer approach for risk assets is to buy on dips and go long. Short-term market can be flexibly managed.

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