#沃勒:8月通胀决定9月是否加息#比特币再破80000美元
Review:
Yesterday, due to the decline in rate hike expectations, the US dollar fell, the 30-year long bond yield dropped, and both BTC and the gold market rose, breaking through the previous adjustment range. This round of macro bullish narrative continues, so the mid-term bullish view of 96-97K remains unchanged. Previously, shorted gold at the high point, took profit near 4300 and reversed to go long early, and also went long on Bitcoin early at 76300. Last Friday, Walsh's speech reminded that short-term bearish adjustments are opportunities, which again proved valuable.
Although the daily resistance at the high level of 82300-82800 is strong, yesterday broke through 80K, and the 4-hour chart returned to a strong structure. Today, focus on whether the pullback near 79300-80K can hold, still mainly continuing to buy on dips.
Tonight brings the first important non-farm payroll data for September. The small non-farm data the day before yesterday was positive. Today's non-farm data is not ideal for early positioning at the current high price, but both trend and technicals are bullish, so buying on dips is certain. If the non-farm data is poor and rate hike expectations further decline, 82K might be broken through in one go.
If the non-farm data performs well, pressure will remain below 82K with continued high-level sideways adjustment, waiting for the September 17th rate decision to remain unchanged, which will also lead to an upward move.
In summary, the current main theme is still macro bullish. The safer approach for risk assets is to buy on dips and go long. Short-term market can be flexibly managed.
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