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Assuming the U.S. is really like the trending posts these past few days: Trump, Bescent, and Walsh work together to control oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, interest rates, and the probability of rate hike or cut expectations, respectively. Especially since Trump can fully adjust the pace of the war in Iran's Strait of Hormuz (such as delaying retaliation or delaying action) to regulate oil prices in the short term, then inflation data can also be adjusted in the short term. Therefore, the recent rise in oil prices could be a good excuse for Walsh to take a hawkish stance or even raise interest rates in September. If they really want to raise rates in September, they can keep oil prices high. Assuming the probability of a rate hike in September after the September 11 CPI release is maxed out and then tries to lower prices again, then oil prices can be lowered after the data is released. This way, the FOMC meeting on September 16 does not raise rates, which can also be said to be because high oil prices are not sustained, so no further hikes (although September 11 is August CPI, it can be forcibly explained that high oil prices will not persist), perfectly stepping down the Fed's legs. This way, it can be either offensive or defensive, and at worst, the hawks will maintain it. In short, whether to raise rates or not can be coordinated by oil prices, which helps maintain the Fed's independent image and credibility. If this guess is correct, then after the CPI data is released, we might be able to short crude oil. Let's keep an eye on $CL as we go next week