$1180 ZEC—do you dare to chase it?
Let's look at the surface first: after breaking through the thousand-yuan mark, the market went wild.
What has happened in the past two weeks? Grayscale's privacy coin spot ETF was listed, ZEC surged violently from below 1000, reaching a high of 1250, with perpetual short positions liquidated nearly $50 million, and market capitalization surged to about $20 billion, breaking into the top ten.
The daily RSI once surged to 80+, extremely overbought, with a strong trend above all moving averages, but the position is expensive.
First: ETFs are not stories; real money is being bought.
Grayscale ZCSH Spot ETF launched on August 25, with AUM rapidly rising from $300 million to $460 million. In two weeks, net buying volume reached $160 million.
What does this mean? ZEC's daily total online trading volume is only a few billion USD, but ETFs are continuous net buying, not just a quick rush and a quick run.
The second thing: This coin almost "went to zero" five months ago. Do you still remember?
In May and June, the Orchard pool exposed an anti-counterfeit currency vulnerability, causing the price to drop from 680 to 250, with the entire internet shouting "Privacy Coin is over."
And then? Ironwood (NU6.3) launched, replaced with a new shielded pool, and the verifiability of supply was restored. The rebound started in July, the ETF launched in August, and the market surged violently in September.
From 250 to 1250, it increased fivefold in five months. Those who cut losses at 250 are now watching the price of 1200, their hands trembling.
The third event: the September 16 FOMC is the biggest "black swan."
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September is about 59%-66% (Jackson Hole leans hawkish), and the federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%.
If the rate hike is implemented and BTC falls below 76,000-78,000, ZEC, a high-beta, high-leverage asset, will see a much harsher drawdown than BTC.
The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you
On one side:
ETFs continue to attract 460 million yuan, opening institutional channels
Shielded supply by 28.8%, circulating inventory hardened
Privacy narratives have moved from the margins back to the mainstream
Monthly and weekly chart structure breakouts; long-term target is 1600-2200
On one side:
It rose 75 times in one year, with prices severely overbought
September rate hike expectations suppress risk assets
Inability to 100% Verify On-Chain "Has There Been a Partial Placement"
1250 failed twice, double top risk
Resistance above: 1248-1257 (this high) → 1315 → 1600-2200
Support levels: 1160-1170 → 1105-1130 → 1000 (weakening if breached)
Trading Strategy (No Talk)
Short-term players:
Once it pulls back to 1160-1180 and stabilizes, then lighten and go long, stop loss at 1140, target 1250, and after a breakout, look at 1315. If two attempts to 1250 fail + volume drops below 1160, exit decisively.
Swing traders:
If you already have positions below 800, reduce your position to lock in profits. Consider adding positions when around 1100-1130 or 1000.
Long-term believers:
The medium- to long-term narrative holds, but 1180 is not a cheap buying point. When it pulls back below 1100, invest in batches, targeting 1600-2200. But remember—FOMC will reduce leverage before the hike rate hike + the market crashes, ZEC may return to 1000 first.
ZEC is now a "price discovery after a decade-long breakout"—
99% of people see 1180 and think it's "too high to buy," but institutions buy tens of millions of dollars every week in ETFs.
On the day the 1250 breakthrough occurs, you'll notice:
It turns out it's not that ZEC is too expensive, but that you always dare to watch from the bottom.
Did you go from 400 to 1180?
At the 1180 position, would you dare to get on board?
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