Once the Friday CPI data was released, the core month-on-month rose 0.3%, exceeding expectations. The probability of a rate hike jumped directly from 70% to 90%. Goldman Sachs overnight revised its report from "expected to hold steady" to "expected to raise rates by 25 basis points in September."
TD Bank changed its stance, and so did JPMorgan.
Overnight, there were no doves left on Wall Street.
September 15-16, FOMC. The market has already priced in a 90% chance of a rate hike.
The real thunder is in Powell's words.
First, let's clearly see the current situation.
Bitcoin slid this week from above 81,000 down to 76,995 USD. The trigger for this round of decline was not just the CPI—Iran attacked two US warships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US retaliated by bombing five Iranian oil tankers. Brent crude broke through 100 USD, reaching as high as 109.
Oil price up → inflation expectations up → rate hike expectations up → Bitcoin down.
This chain is tightly linked, one link after another.
But on the other side, something interesting is happening.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has had net inflows for three consecutive weeks, totaling 3.8 billion USD. On September 3 alone, inflows were 731 million USD, the largest since January. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for 67% of that.
Leveraged longs are being liquidated, while institutions are quietly accumulating. Two completely different groups are doing entirely different things in the same market.
Key price levels: 76,000 and 82,000—this is your battlefield map.
Lower boundary—76,000 USD. Glassnode data shows 75K is a strong demand zone, with 60-65K as the next defense line. The 200-day moving average is near 74,000.
These numbers are not drawn arbitrarily. The 75,000-76,000 range has been repeatedly tested over the past two months, with buyers stepping in each time. If it holds this time, it means institutions are supporting the bottom. If it breaks, the next liquidity-dense zone is 72,000-74,000.
Upper boundary—82,000 USD. The 83K-85K range is a heavy resistance zone for holders. This level has recently served multiple times as a market watershed. Breaking through it opens the door to new highs.
Trading script, broken down by timeline:
Before FOMC (now until September 15): reduce leverage, don't bet on direction.
The 90% rate hike probability is already priced in. Going long or short now is guessing Powell's wording at the press conference. This is not trading; it's gambling.
If you have positions, reduce leverage to a level that lets you sleep. If you are flat, don't rush. The real opportunity is not before the meeting.
On FOMC day: focus not on "whether to hike," but on what Powell says.
A 25 basis point hike is basically a given. Only two possibilities can shock the market:
One, Powell hints at a second hike this year. UBS has already predicted hikes in both September and December. If he says "inflation still has upside risks, further tightening cannot be ruled out," Bitcoin will likely test 74K or even lower.
Two, Powell signals "observe data after this hike." The market will immediately interpret this as the worst being over. Refer to the post-CPI movement on September 11—BTC quickly recovered from 76,000 to 78,600, a 1.5% single-day rebound.
After FOMC: the window when the worst is over, possibly the best entry opportunity in September.
History doesn't repeat but rhymes. If the hike happens with neutral wording, the suppressed buying pressure over three weeks will be released. The 3.8 billion USD ETF inflow is still waiting outside to find an entry point.
You don't need to bottom-fish before FOMC; you need to confirm direction after FOMC before acting.
One risk that must be mentioned:
If the Middle East situation continues to escalate and oil prices stay above 100 USD, the Fed's reason to hike rates will be stronger. Consumer one-year inflation expectations have jumped from 4% to 4.6%, with over half of consumers expecting rates to continue rising.
This is not a one-time noise. This is structural pressure.
So don't go all-in, don't leverage up, and don't bet on direction before FOMC.
The 90% rate hike probability is already priced in. The real opportunity is not before FOMC but after—when the market digests the "rate hike" bad news and finds it not so scary after all.
Whether 76K holds then is the real answer.
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