What's going on outside?
First, a quick look at the periphery: On 9/10, all three major US stock indexes fell together, with the Dow down -0.60%, the S&P down -0.58%, and the Nasdaq down -0.65%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was hit even harder, dropping 2.66%. On 9/11, the A-shares also saw a volume surge with declines, the Shanghai Composite down -1.18%, with 4,870 stocks falling and only 643 rising—truly "not a single fighter left." The European Central Bank raised rates simultaneously to 2.50% on 9/11, and the Bank of Japan has over a 75% chance of raising rates next week. Central banks worldwide are collectively tightening the taps.
The big issue looming overhead: US PPI in August exceeded expectations, pushing the probability of a September rate hike above 70%. The CPI data on 9/11 is the last key inflation report before the FOMC meeting on 9/15-16 Beijing time. The US-Iran conflict is driving oil prices and shipping costs higher, making it difficult for inflation to cool down. This scenario looks anything but a comedy for risk assets.
$BTC spot ETFs didn't show any mercy either: On 9/9, there was a net outflow of $120 million in a single day, negative for two consecutive days, with ARKB alone withdrawing $78 million. The futures market is even more straightforward: over six days, open interest saw a cumulative net outflow of about $496 million. On 7/8, the open interest was still $8.48 billion, now shrunk to $7.98 billion. Money votes with its feet, and the votes went next door.
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