UNI at $6.25—are you chasing it?
Let's look at the surface first: the positive news is exploding, but prices are not rising.
In the past 30 days, Uniswap spot trading volume reached $70.6 billion, surpassing the combined total of the other three DEXs. On September 4, 184,000 UNI tokens were burned in a single day. Arthur Hayes bought 240,000 tokens via OTC.
But what about the price? It plunged from 7.48 to 6.09, now at 6.25, fluctuating in a range.
Because the positive news has already been priced in, this week's FOMC +9/29 subsidy maturity has two hard hurdles.
First thing: Destruction is real, but the lifeline is in Robinhood.
UNI finally shifted from "voting only, no rent" to "usage→ fees, → burning."
However, Robinhood Chain contributed about one-third of Uniswap's trading volume and contributed more than half of the burns.
On September 29, Robinhood Wallet's gas subsidy expired.
During the subsidy period, high-frequency, small-scale orders, memes, and new subscriptions are amplified. After the subsidy ends, can this volume be retained? It directly determines whether the destruction narrative can continue.
The second event: FOMC is coming this week, and the altcoin beta is being cut first.
BTC fell from 81,000 to 76,600-77,300, CPI year-on-year was 3.4%, and PPI was relatively hot. At the September 15-16 FOMC, the market once pushed the probability of a rate hike to 60-70%.
Whether or not the final increase is made, the dot plot and the wash-style caliber will still play risk asset volatility.
ETFs can support BTC, but when rate hike expectations rise, counterfeit Betas are still the first to be cut. For highly elastic stocks like UNI, which have just surged once, it's easier to cut valuations early in the macro window
Third thing: Technically, 6.25 is the mid-point, which is the most awkward situation.
Major levels: In mid-August, it rose from 3.2-3.5 to 7.48, nearly doubling in a month, with the main rally still in place. The daily EMA of 20 is between 5.7 and 5.8, and the EMA at 4.8 to 4.9. As long as it doesn't break below 5.80, the medium-term upward structure is in place.
Intermediate level: 7.50 is the distribution high, pullback to 5.86, rebound to 6.56, but failed to recover 6.80. 4H box at 6.16-6.55, 6.25 stuck just above the middle axis.
Resistance above: 6.45-6.55→ 6.68-6.86→ 7.20-7.50
Support below: 6.16-6.20 → 5.95-6.00 → 5.80-5.86 (bull-bear dividing line) → 5.50-5.54 → 4.60-4.80
The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you
On one side:
30-day turnover reached 70.6 billion, surpassing the combined total of the other three DEXs
The burn mechanism went live, burning $1.15 million in a single day, with an annualized yield of 90 million
Arthur Hayes bought 240,000 OTC shares
The monthly chart is mainly rising, while the daily moving average remains bullish
On one side:
Robinhood's subsidy expires on 9/29, destroying the narrative lifeline
9/16 FOMC, rate hike expectations peak
6.80 was reclaimed, 7.50 saw heavy highs
FDV is 5.5-6.2 billion, which is still relatively expensive compared to protocol revenue
6.25 midpoint, very poor profit-loss ratio
Operational strategy
Block trading:
Bearish probing: resistance at 6.48-6.56, 4-hour close bearish or long upper shadow. Stop loss at 6.72, targets 6.20/6.00/5.86.
Bulls are probing: hold at 6.18-6.22, or stabilize with reduced volume at 5.95-6.00. Stop loss at 5.78, targets 6.45/6.68/6.85.
Breakout Follow:
Bulls confirm: 4H close above 6.56, pullback without breaking 6.40, targets 6.85 → 7.20. Fake breakout and exit immediately.
Bears confirm: 4H closes below 5.80, rebound fails at 5.90-6.00, target 5.54→5.20. Medium-term bulls should reduce positions.
Now until Monday Asian session: Poor liquidity over the weekend, reduce leverage, avoid overnight heavy positions.
9/15-16 FOMC: Closed most short-term positions within 6 hours before the meeting, leaving only small positions.
9/29 Robinhood subsidy expires: observe 1 week in advance to see if on-chain volume and burn decline. If volume halves, no longer hold below 6.00.
Around 6:00, the mid-term bullish rate is 20-30%.
5.80 stop loss, single loss controlled between 200-300U.
Rebound to the 6.85-7.20 halving.
Don't fully fill your position at 6:25 at once.
Spot/Medium-term: Split between 5.80-6.00, stop loss at 5.50, hold for 1-3 months.
UNI now looks like a rich kid who just got a salary—
Money is burning, but I haven't proven I can keep making money. 6.25 isn't a buying point, it's a patience test point.
Only chase long above 6.55, only give up below 5.80, only trade swing trading in between, and survive the FOMC this week first.
At the 6.25 level, do you dare to chase it?
$BTC$SOL$UNI
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