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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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7.6美元的ETC,你想抄底吗? 先看表面:老牌PoW轮动,冲高8.7-9.1,然后回吐到7.6。散户骂“ETC垃圾”,K线告诉你:30日结构还没坏,7.45没破,这是箱体上沿失败后的回踩,不是崩盘。 第一件事:轮动来时你是小甜甜,轮动走时你是牛夫人。 9月9日那波拉升,本质不是ETC基本面爆发。 是资金在BTC横盘时,找老牌PoW/L1做高Beta轮动。 成交量放大,冲高,然后退潮。 冲高时放量,回落时缩量——这不是恐慌出货,这是轮动退潮。 散户看到涨了追进去,现在7.6被套。 主力呢?早在8.7以上把货倒给你了。 第二件事:社区Call #59开完了,但远水不解近渴。 9月11日社区会议,核心几件事: Classix接手部分基础设施和社媒 网站改版,Lady Justice再品牌 Olympia升级测试进展 建设性利好,但短期不拉盘。 Olympia的EIP-1559动态手续费、协议金库,主网激活时间还没锁死。 固定减产“fifthing”窗口在2026年晚些时候。 利好是给未来画饼,抛压是现在到账。 日本SBI相关平台计划10月下旬下架ETC,10月初停交易/充值。体量不大,但会形成阶段性抛压预期。 第三件事:真正拿刀的人,是宏观和BTC。 BTC在7.7万附近横盘偏弱,ETH 2500,总市值2.7万亿,BTC主导率仍高 8月美国CPI约3.4%,就业不弱 市场一度定价9月16日FOMC加息25bp概率85%-90% 现货比特币ETF近一周净流出约4.6亿美元,ETH ETF反而有流入 加息预期升温 = 风险资产折现率上升 = 山寨比BTC更吃亏。 BTC若因FOMC砸向75k下方,ETC永续向下弹性会比现货更狠。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 30天反弹+15%~+23%,超跌修复 固定上限2.107亿枚,PoW老兵的稀缺叙事 Olympia升级+2026减产的中线故事 7.45不破,中线反弹结构还在 一边是: SBI下架,10月流动性抽水 FOMC加息在即,山寨承压 BTC ETF一周流出4.6亿 生态薄,一年仍跌约65% 强支撑:7.45-7.50(近日结构低点,失守容易加速) 次级支撑:7.26-7.35(30日均线附近) 破位目标:7.11 / 6.70-6.00 近阻力:7.73-7.80(短均线+日内供应) 关键阻力:8.00-8.10(反弹是否有效的第一道确认) 趋势阻力:8.60-9.10(本轮冲高区,不收复就是高点派发) 7.45是底线,7.80是脸面。跌破底线不要脸,站不上脸面没未来。 操作策略 情景A:震荡 区间7.45-7.80。7.48-7.52附近轻仓试多,止损7.38下方。反弹到7.73-7.80减仓,不在箱体中段加杠杆。目标先看7.73,突破站稳再看8.05。 情景B:宏观利空(FOMC加息+点阵图偏鹰) 等7.26或7.10出现长下影+缩量再考虑。破7.10则中线结构转弱,先空仓观望到6.7-6.2。 情景C:BTC站稳、山寨再轮动 必须收复并站稳7.80,最好日线收在8.00上方,才谈加仓。目标8.60,再上方9.10是出货区而不是追涨区。 日线收盘跌破7.45且4H反抽不过7.55,多头策略作废。 日线收盘站上8.10,空头/观望策略作废。 ETC现在是“宏观定价的老牌高Beta”,不是独立牛市。7.60这个位置,性价比既不是极佳抄底,也不是必须砍的崩盘位。 最好的交易是把情绪拿掉,把7.45 / 7.80 / 9.10当成纪律,把9月16日FOMC当成事件风险,而不是在周日7.60上下用高杠杆猜方向。 7.45破了,你跑不跑?$BTC $ETH $ETC
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
$100 worth of SOL, are you getting on board? First, look at the surface: good news is piling up, but the price isn't rising. In the past 7 days, it dropped 6%, falling from 110 to fluctuate around 100. Over 30 days, it rose 32%, rebounding from 75 all the way up. The candlestick chart tells you: 100 is both a psychological barrier and the dividing line between bulls and bears, RSI is neutral to slightly low, volume is moderate, direction undecided, waiting for the wind. First thing: Tomorrow is the Washington Summit, with the SEC Chair attending in person. On September 14, the “Solana Summit: Washington x Wall Street” will be held, with SEC Chair Paul Atkins delivering the closing keynote, and key figures like Hester Peirce attending. The theme is institutional finance, regulatory clarity, and ETF framework. The SEC Chair publicly endorsing Solana is equivalent to issuing an entry ticket for institutional funds. Previously, the SEC’s stance on SOL was “suspected security,” but now the Chair personally gives a speech, a 180-degree turnaround. Once the ETF framework is clear, giants like BlackRock and Fidelity entering is just a matter of time. Second thing: On-chain data is exploding, but the price lags behind. Solana has reclaimed the top spot in DEX 24-hour trading volume, with daily transactions of $2.6-3.2 billion, ahead of Robinhood Chain. Circle minted 3 billion USDC on Solana in a single day, RWA holders surpassed 400,000, and tokenized stock trading was booming over the weekend. Real money is running on Solana, not just wash trading. Solana has firmly secured its position as the stablecoin settlement layer. RWA + tokenized assets, the long-term narrative has shifted from “Memecoin chain” to “Internet capital markets.” Third thing: A technical signal that must be taken seriously has appeared. The 2-hour chart showed a 50/200 moving average death cross, but on September 11, it surged from 98 to 104-105, slapping the bears in the face. Now it’s retesting 100, a classic bear trap pattern of “quick recovery after death cross.” The daily chart rebounded from 75 to 110, up 46%, then corrected 6% to 100, a healthy upward continuation. Support at 97-98 held twice, RSI just above 40, neither overbought nor oversold. Bull vs. bear, you decide. On one side: The SEC Chair personally endorses tomorrow, regulatory narrative reverses. Bitwise ETF bought $107 million in 20 days, institutions accumulating. DEX trading volume back to first place, on-chain data exploding. RWA + stablecoin settlement layer, long-term narrative upgrade. Rebounded 32% from 75, mid-term trend intact. On the other side: Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16, 60-70% chance of rate hike. August nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, PPI is hot, hawkish pressure high. Network revenue down year-over-year, Memecoin fading. 100 level has been tested for three days, direction unclear. Resistance above: 104-107 → 110 → 120 Support below: 97-98 → 90-94 Trading strategy Short-term players: Bullish: Light long positions at 100-101, stop loss below 98.5, target 104-107, if breaking 110 then look to 120. Bearish: Short lightly on rebound to 103-105 if volume expands but price stalls, stop loss above 107, target 97-98. Swing traders: Hold 100 + volume increase, accumulate in batches, first target 110, second 120, stop loss 90-94. If closing below 97 confirmed, switch to defense, reassess near 90. Long-term believers: Dollar-cost average between 90-100. Solana is a core asset of “Internet capital markets + payment settlement layer,” with institutional ETFs + regulatory clarity + on-chain activity, long-term target 200+. SOL now is like ETH at the end of 2023— 99% of people thought “it’s risen too much and should correct,” but after ETF approval, it went from 2000 to 4000. On the day of the volume breakout at 103, you’ll realize: It’s not that SOL is weak, it’s that you hesitated at the 100 level every time, then chased highs at 120. At the 100 level, do you dare to get on board? $BTC $ETH $SOL

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