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Next week is the CPI release. Barclays and Morgan Stanley have already predicted that the overall CPI year-on-year for September will jump to 3.7%, with the energy sub-index soaring 5.05% month-on-month, and gasoline up 34.8% year-on-year. The group chat is already anxious. Some ask, "If CPI exceeds expectations, will the market drop again?" Others ask, "Should we reduce positions early?" Some have already started losing sleep. But I want to ask a question: You’re watching the CPI, but what is the CPI watching? CPI is not the cause; CPI is the result. The real cause lies on the oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. On October 8, the U.S. Treasury took action again. A new round of sanctions blacklisted 17 Iranian oil tankers. U.S. officials also said something many missed— "Outside the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, about 20 million barrels of Iranian crude oil remain stranded on ships." 20 million barrels. This is not inventory. This is a dam lake hanging over global oil prices. Every barrel of Iranian crude that cannot enter the market is building momentum for the next round of oil price increases. You might think: "What’s 20 million barrels? The world consumes 100 million barrels a day." True. But the issue is not the quantity, it’s the trend. U.S. officials said: due to the blockade and sanctions, Iran has stopped loading and unloading crude oil on ships. No loading, no unloading. 20 million barrels of oil are just drifting at sea, immobile. The market is waiting for a number, but as long as these tankers don’t move, oil prices won’t come down from their highs. Iran is not sitting idle either. If the sea route is blocked, they use land routes. Currently, Iran transports about 250,000 barrels daily by land, while also relying on a "shadow fleet" and third-country trade networks to evade sanctions. The U.S. is cracking down on these intermediary networks, pressuring foreign financial institutions. But every channel cut means tighter marginal supply in the global oil market. Morgan Stanley has already warned: Middle East supply recovery will extend into late 2027, with the market in a supply shortage state through Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. This is not a short-term problem. This is a protracted battle. And all of this will ultimately be reflected in the CPI. Barclays’ forecast for core data is clear: gasoline up 34.8% year-on-year, heating oil up 38.8% year-on-year. Morgan Stanley points out that Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, which will further transmit to airfares and transportation costs, with jet fuel year-on-year increases nearing 90%. There’s an even more painful figure: since the U.S. and Israel started their conflict with Iran, U.S. diesel prices have risen about 70%, with the national average reaching $6.28 per gallon on October 8. Diesel rises, truck freight rises. Freight rises, everything in supermarkets rises. You watch the CPI, the CPI watches oil prices, and oil prices watch those 20 million barrels stuck on tankers. The Federal Reserve is actually struggling to hold on. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to 283 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. In March, it was still 415 million barrels. In half a year, over 130 million barrels have been released. The Department of Energy plans to release another 40 million barrels, but this is the last batch of the 172 million barrel release plan. The cards are almost played out. The U.S. has even started urging Europe to release diesel reserves, but analysts poured cold water on this: refinery capacity bottlenecks mean releasing reserves won’t help. Supply shocks cannot be fixed by releasing reserves. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $82,000, just recovering from a sharp drop from $81,000. That sharp drop liquidated 180,000 positions, wiping out $1.1 billion. The U.S. government deposited 17,733 BTC worth $1.48 billion into Coinbase within days. Combined with mining pool rebalancing and short-term holder panic selling, the bulls’ defense collapsed instantly. But more notably: Glassnode data shows that the average spot and ETF trading volume on exchanges over the past 7 days is only $6.8 billion, below 90% of the levels since January 2024. The market capitalization realized in the past 30 days is $12.8 billion, but ETF, stablecoin, and corporate reserves combined bought only $4.9 billion. This is a stock game. New buying power is insufficient. What does this mean? The market is extremely sensitive to macro negative news. Any slight disturbance can trigger a chain reaction. Iranian crude can’t get out → oil prices stay high (Brent is currently above $100) → energy inflation stubborn → Fed can’t pivot dovish → strong dollar → crypto market liquidity under pressure → BTC and risk assets suppressed. This chain is not speculation; it’s happening. Although the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 17.7%, the probability of a rate hike up to 50 basis points in December is as high as 83.7%. St. Louis Fed President Bullard even said rate hikes may continue for the next 6 to 9 months. The Fed doesn’t want to tighten; it just can’t loosen. The market is waiting for next Wednesday’s CPI. But CPI is just a punctuation mark in the Persian Gulf tanker game. 20 million barrels of crude drifting at sea, one day they don’t move, global inflation won’t drop one day. Inflation doesn’t drop, the Fed won’t loosen one day. The Fed doesn’t loosen, crypto market liquidity won’t return one day. You can anxiously watch the candlesticks on your screen, or you can look up toward the Persian Gulf. The real story isn’t in the CPI report. It’s on those tankers drifting at sea. Next week’s CPI will most likely look bad. But that’s not important. What matters is: why it looks bad, and when it will look better. The answer isn’t in Washington’s data tables; it’s in the shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz. $BTC $XAU $BZ #美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解