Post

Oil prices break $100, CPI set to soar, interest rates not dropping: The crypto market is being strangled by the "stagflation ghost" In September, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000. The expectation was 84,000. The data for the previous two months was revised down significantly, with an average monthly increase of just 17,000 jobs over the past three months. The economy is stalling. On the same day, Brent crude oil firmly held above $104. The U.S. Treasury just sanctioned 17 Iranian oil tankers, the commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to its lowest point since the end of July, and a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico shut down 1.28 million barrels per day of production. The fuel for inflation is still being poured onto the fire. The economy is cooling down, but prices are rising. This is not a recession; it is stagflation. The very thing risk assets fear the most. The most critical issue is that oil prices cannot come down in the short term. The U.S. talks about a "quick victory," but in reality, it has turned into a long-term war of attrition. Iran can still transport about 250,000 barrels daily overland, and there are 20 million barrels of stranded crude outside the blockade zone. Sanctions are sanctions, supply is supply—two different matters. The ceiling for oil prices is suppressed by strategic reserves, but the floor is firmly supported by geopolitics. The high-level oscillation around $100 is a chronic poison for inflation—it won’t cause a sudden crash but will keep causing persistent discomfort. Inflation data is about to be released. On October 14, the September CPI will be announced. Barclays predicts the overall CPI year-over-year will jump from 3.4% to 3.7%, with the energy sub-index soaring 5.05% month-over-month, and gasoline prices up 34.8% year-over-year. Gasoline prices are the fuel for inflation. And this war of attrition ensures the fuel supply will not be cut off. The Federal Reserve is stuck in the middle, caught in a dilemma. The September FOMC minutes just came out, with the "majority" of officials expecting another rate hike this year. But two vice chairs hinted at no move in October, and the market has already pushed the rate hike expectation from October to December. Current rates are 3.75%-4.00%, and several officials believe this is "not restrictive." To translate: they think rates are still not high enough and there is room for more hikes. Once CPI confirms a jump to 3.7%, a December rate hike will change from "possible" to "necessary." Bitcoin is stuck between 81,000 and 86,000, unable to break higher. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen above 5.67%, and the 10-year is at 5.31%. Long-term rates not falling means interest-free assets like Bitcoin will always be suppressed. Every time you think "it should rise," long-term rates push up again. Every time you think "the bad news is priced in," the CPI data delivers another blow. 82,000 is not a bottom; it’s a temporary platform waiting for CPI to pass judgment. The biggest enemy in the market now is not the SEC, not regulation, not another exchange incident. It is the ongoing tightening of macro liquidity, and the source of that tightening is the oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Washington thinks it is wearing down Iran, but in reality, it is also eroding the valuation space for global risk assets. BTC is not avoiding risk; it is waiting for a signal from the Federal Reserve to ease—and that signal is being delayed day by day by the oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. The stagflation ghost has already strangled the throat. The only thing you can do is not to suffocate yourself before it lets go. $BTC $XAU $BZ #美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解