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$BTC 两根腿把底焊住了 K 线把话说得很直白:10/08 插针到 80,345,10/09 低点抬到 81,571,两次下探都没破位,低点一路抬升,双底轮廓画得清清楚楚。图上支撑 80,345、阻力 86,976,反弹路标到 T1 84,805、T2 86,106;头顶的拦路虎是 83,500——10/09 的高点加下降压力线终点,突破它才谈得上第二波。万一 80,345 破位,备选回踩位 78,738,别在下跌的刀口上接。 外围也搭了把手:美股 10/09 道指涨 423 点,三大指数周线齐涨,科技股普涨;港股 10/09 恒指 +1.79%,亚太涨幅第一;A股今天上证在 3,754-3,824 之间晃,现报 3,813 平收。宏观上,9 月非农爆冷只录 2.9 万人,CME 给 10 月「按兵不动」开出 82.3% 的概率,沃勒也留了口子——美元软一点,风险资产就喘一口气。
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Main focus $BTC | Strategy: Buy the dip It's a bit expensive, but holding it this time won't be painful $BTC current price 82,634, direction is long, don't chase the high, buy in batches on pullbacks at 82,300-82,600. Stop loss at 81,550, target first looks at 84,805 (T1 on the chart), if it holds, then aim for 86,106 (T2), leverage capped at 3x. Reason in one sentence: The spike at 80,345 washed out the leverage, the fee rate has turned positive three times in a row, and positions started to flow back today — cheap chips were already distributed yesterday, now the price at 82,600 is a bit expensive, but holding it won't be painful. Last week it dropped from 86,976 all the way down to 80,345, a drop of over 7 points, the drop was very honest: not a panic stampede, but an orderly exit. On 10/09, net position outflow was 380 million dollars, the fiercest day in the market, after withdrawing chips, today 42 million flowed back — the sign of a shakeout is to wash out the last undecided holders, then no one sells anymore.

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