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Ah May does foreign trade and doesn't dare to keep the US dollars she receives at home.
She converted them into stablecoins for the convenience of transferring anytime.
She doesn't know that her money was used to buy US Treasury bonds.
Yesterday, I wrote an article explaining that your USDT is essentially a disguised purchase of US debt.
When interest rates rise, the issuing company earns more.
But Ah May doesn't get a penny extra.
Her share of the profit becomes someone else's financial report.
On the same day, Old Zhou was worried in another city.
He borrowed money to buy coins, and the interest rate is floating.
When the interest rate rises a bit, he has to pay more each month.
The coin price hasn't moved, but his costs moved first.
Old Zhou didn't bet on the wrong direction.
He bet correctly, but just didn't have enough money to sustain it.
Ah May and Old Zhou have never met.
One is saving money, the other is borrowing money.
Interest rates moved both sides at once.
But note, the directions moved are opposite.
On the saving side, quietly earning more.
On the borrowing side, quietly paying more.
Whose money is the extra earned?
Where does the extra paid go?
The issuing company in the middle didn't produce anything.
It doesn't farm, doesn't run factories, doesn't move goods.
It just stands in the middle of the money.
Collects with the left hand, pays with the right, keeps a cut for itself.
The issuer profits from the spread.
So what role does the Federal Reserve play here? It is the one who changes the interest rate.
So is a rate hike good or bad for the crypto world?
This question itself is problematic.
It depends on who you are.
If you are Ah May, you hope it rises. IOTA rose about 12%, with 24-hour trading volume expanding to approximately 3.5 times the recent daily median volume, yet the perpetual contract still shows a discount of about 0.22%.
As of 21:41 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is around $0.06044, with a 24-hour high of $0.06195 and a low of $0.05374, intraday volatility about 15.3%; spot trading volume is approximately $1.99 million, with the best bid-ask spread around 0.15%.
OKEx data shows the nominal value of open interest in perpetual contracts is about $1.08 million, with the current funding rate around 0.01%. The price is about 2.4% below the intraday high, but no premium has formed on the contract side, indicating the rise is accompanied by volume expansion, yet the long-buying sentiment is not overly crowded.
My judgment is that this strong momentum is more like a turnover continuation driven by spot trading. The most common misjudgment is to treat the discount directly as a safety cushion; the volume expansion may also be just a short-term pulse and does not prove that buying pressure will persist.
Next, watch $0.06195 and $0.058. If the previous high is broken and trading remains active with a moderate funding rate, the structure may continue; if it falls below $0.058 and the discount widens, the current judgment fails.
$IOTA Big Brother Maji continues to add to his $BTC long position
Latest data today
Added about 90 BTC, total holdings reached 380 BTC
Position value rose to 32.3221 million USD
Current unrealized profit about 120,000 USD
$ETH total holdings unchanged at about 36,000
Position value unchanged at 97.5942 million USD
Current unrealized profit about 389,500 USD
HYPE position unchanged at about 173,000
Position value about 15.66 million USD
Unrealized profit 141,500 USD
$PUMP fully liquidated, big profit of 800,000 USD! Storm clouds are gathering, brothers, $ZEC is now a typical bull trap. Be very careful when bottom fishing now, don't rush to become the bag holder.
ZEC is currently priced around 1,300, with a slight 24-hour increase, but this rebound lacks volume support and no increase in positions. Price rises without position increases indicate a rebound, not a trend. The 4-hour RSI is only 39, still in the bearish zone.
The news is all bad: Grayscale Zcash ETF saw a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, the first since its listing; Bitget hacker transferred 2,746 ZEC into privacy pools, raising compliance risks. Institutions are withdrawing, retail investors are taking over.
Technically, key support is at $1,233; a daily break below means $1,155 or even lower. Resistance above is strong at $1,370; failure to break through is a shorting opportunity.
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 🚨 ETH bulls, don’t celebrate too early. This rebound could be the trap.
ETH keeps getting rejected around $2,780, and every push higher gets sold back down. That’s not strong bullish momentum—it’s hesitation.
A 2% bounce doesn’t magically mean a reversal or $3,000 next. In a weak macro environment, small rebounds can easily become exit liquidity.
For now, I’m staying cautious and keeping my short bias. If ETH finally breaks and holds above resistance, I’ll reassess.
#DailyOrbit 现在更像洗筹后的试探期，不是追涨期，也不是舒服的震荡期。 你有没有发现，最该砸盘的那根针没砸下去？ 我盯着15分钟线看了一整晚，BTC从低位慢慢爬回85000附近，然后横在那里。这个横不是无聊，是在消化。美国那边加密托管新规要出，合规基金和投顾持有客户资产的限制可能松绑，银行组团要加密信托牌照，纽约和怀俄明还谈成了联合监管。这些不是小新闻，它们改的是机构进场的摩擦系数。再加上伊朗袭击油轮这种地缘冲击，按以前的剧本，BTC应该先崩一段，但这次它扛住了。 更微妙的是Bitdeer抛售代币这种偏空的消息，也没能把价格压下去。SAND白天几分钟内快速拉升，说明场内还有闲钱愿意做局部进攻。资金偏好没有全面撤退，只是变得更挑。 偏多的路径很清楚：监管摩擦下降，合规通道变宽，机构配置的阻力变小，BTC在坏消息里练出了抗跌性，一旦情绪回暖，ETH和山寨可能跟着修复。但风险也在这里。Hester Peirce在10月2日离任，她一直是加密友好的声音，这个空缺意味着后面政策节奏可能没那么顺。而且价格在85000横着，不代表洗盘结束，如果地缘再升级，或者ETF流入不能持续，这波修复随时会变成诱多。 我自己的On one side, a small position in $ARX with 20x leverage gained over 50% profit. Although it’s only 30U, it feels great inside, and adding a chicken leg tonight is no problem 🍗.
On the other side, $SAND really confused me. With 600U margin, I ended up losing nearly 700U, a return rate of -120%! Is this the "charm" of full position mode? If it weren’t for the profits from ARX and some leftover funds in the account, this short position on SAND would probably have wiped me out already. Now it’s purely "using profits to cover losses," and I even have to put in extra money to hold the position. 📉
Honestly, this full position 20x leverage feeling really messes with your mindset. When you’re winning, you feel like a genius; when losing, you just want to slap yourself. At this point with SAND, should I cut losses to save myself or stubbornly hold on until a pullback? Any experienced bros with advice? Waiting online!$ZEC
Around $ETH 2680, the weekly gains and losses basically evened out, and there is currently no clear directional advantage.
I think the most unnecessary thing here is to shout "start" at every rebound and then expect a big drop at every pullback.
If the subsequent rise can surpass the previous rebound high and the pullback no longer returns to the original low, I will gradually turn optimistic.
Before that, treating it as a market without confirmed direction makes expectations easier to manage.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously turning to outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm
$AAVE still retains about 17% gains over the week, showing short-term strength, but this does not mean every pullback is worth buying.
I will focus on the recovery speed after the pullback. If it falls and quickly recovers, and each rebound is lower than the last, a different judgment should be made.
If it performed well before, it can remain on the watchlist; if it starts to weaken significantly later, changes must be acknowledged in time, and one should not keep convincing oneself with past strength.#贝森特：The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with global trends Three aircraft carriers press toward the Middle East: The U.S. military is not "showing off muscles," but turning the Persian Gulf into a "powder keg ready to ignite at any moment"
This round of U.S. military deployment has turned "deterrence" into a battle formation map:
The USS Ford guards the eastern Mediterranean/Northern Red Sea, the USS Carl Vinson monitors the Arabian Sea, and the USS Nimitz/Roosevelt rotate along the outer edge of the Persian Gulf—three carrier strike groups simultaneously overlapping in the surrounding waters of the Middle East, combined with amphibious readiness groups, destroyer air defense circles, and forward-deployed strategic bombers, the Gulf has never been this densely militarized since the Cold War.
Why three carriers?
One watches the Strait of Hormuz: protecting oil tankers, deterring Revolutionary Guard fast boats/mines;
One watches the Red Sea/Yemen: suppressing Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles, protecting Israeli-Saudi shipping;
One serves as strategic reserve: monitoring Iranian enriched uranium activity, Levant escalation, U.S. bases being targeted by drones, ready to step in at any time.
What’s more intense is the "simultaneity"—normally carriers operate in relay, now they appear together in three shifts, effectively telling Tehran: you can harass in the gray zone, but don’t let "closing the strait" turn from Twitter threats into action. Iran is not backing down either: underground missile cities, saturated anti-ship attacks, proxy networks fully activated.
But the real ones paying the price are not the two governments, but Asian refineries, European diesel traders, and Gulf port insurance premiums—Brent crude first dropped 2%, and the Cape of Good Hope route is congested again.
The three carriers are not there to start a war, but to make the opponent "blink before firing the first shot."
Yet the old historical script is: when deterrence piles up too much, a spark can ignite a firefight.Unlocks in the next 14 days are not sorted by amount, but by whether there is something to hedge selling pressure. A large amount does not equal negative news; it’s only dangerous if it unlocks after a price increase.
Only a few can be hedged. CRO (10-17) is strategic reserve, about $80 million, accounting for 2.4% of circulation, not VC coins; on 10-04, 228 million tokens were just burned, along with some income used for buyback and burn. The buyback contract is not yet completed. SEI (10-15) is about $8.6 million, less than 30% of daily trading volume, with staked ETF effective 10-23, but it has risen 56% in 30 days, let’s see if it can hold 0.0667. CC (10-05) is less than 0.4% of circulation, with Canton tokenization plus a burn proposal. HYPE (10-06) about $340 million sold OTC to institutions, locked but not disclosed, only considered conditional positive.
Wait to see after unlock, no early entry. ENA (10-05) event log says it accounts for 1.7% of circulation, external sources say possibly about 14%, project team not confirmed; underperformed BTC by 14 percentage points in 7 days, OKX holdings down 23%, watch 0.2279. ARB (10-15) routine about $18.6 million, fees already negative, only looks like a rebound if it holds 0.1884 and fees turn positive. JTO, POWER, PIEVERSE, LAYER are small scale, but the last two have a larger batch in November. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
$BTC
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will release the minutes of their September meetings next week, and how this will impact the crypto space.
Current context (2026-10-04):
The Fed raised rates by 25bp in September to 3.75%–4.00%, but subsequent weak nonfarm payrolls and downward revisions to PCE have lowered the probability of another hike in October.
The ECB was also hawkish/hiked in September; minutes will be released on 10/8, with the market watching for the pace of future hikes.
The crypto market is currently trading on the question: "Will global liquidity continue to be withdrawn?"
1. Three scenarios from the minutes and their impact on BTC/ETH
1️⃣ Hawkish minutes: Officials remain concerned about inflation, hinting at another hike by year-end
→ US Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen
→ Risk assets come under pressure
→ BTC tests support, ETH underperforms BTC, altcoins see valuation cuts
Logic: Higher risk-free rates increase the opportunity cost of non-cash-flow-generating crypto assets.
Typical performance:
BTC oscillates with a bearish bias
High Beta altcoins (like SOL, LINK, PEPE) fall more
Stablecoin inflows slow down
Futures funding rates cool off
2️⃣ Dovish/pragmatic minutes: Acknowledge weakening employment, say "wait for data"
→ Market lowers expectations for further hikes
→ Long-term US Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens
→ BTC rebounds, ETH and altcoins show greater elasticity
Logic: Improved liquidity expectations restore risk appetite.
Typical performance:
BTC initially rebounds, testing 4H/daily resistance
ETH/BTC have repair opportunities
Rotation accelerates among AI, L2, SOL ecosystem, and meme coins
ETF outflows slow or even reverse
3️⃣ "Split" minutes: Some want hikes, others fear recession
→ Market lacks clear direction, trades volatility
→ BTC ranges with more spikes
→ Crypto follows US stocks/treasuries without its own trend
This is the most common scenario. Minutes won’t rewrite trends but amplify existing macro pricing.
2. ECB minutes as a "secondary variable"
If ECB is hawkish:
Euro weakens, dollar strengthens → bearish for crypto
Global central banks withdrawing liquidity simultaneously → risk asset valuations adjust downward
If ECB hints "France/Eurozone growth is weak, no more hikes ahead":
Dollar’s upside is limited
Global liquidity expectations marginally improve
Indirectly positive for BTC
3. Practical implications for crypto traders
Don’t treat minutes as insider info: prices move in advance; minutes only confirm or refute.
Focus on three things:
Is there consensus on "one more hike before year-end"?
Which is more feared: employment or inflation?
Will the 10Y US Treasury continue pushing toward 5%?
10Y Treasury ↑ + DXY ↑ = avoid leverage in crypto
10Y Treasury ↓ + DXY ↓ = altcoins/ETH regain elasticity
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Interpretation of WLD
I haven't mentioned WLD all day because I don't hold any positions, so I haven't written many posts about it. I've talked more about ZEC because I have positions and have been closely following it.
The issue with WLD is not whether the upward structure still exists—it does. Nor is it whether the upward momentum remains—it does.
The current challenge is just beginning. It just broke below the previous high without effective support. The 1H downward momentum has not been fully released. For now, do not bottom-fish or participate. Wait until it pulls back to 0.53 before observing again; it's not too late. Continue to wait for about 36 hours of adjustment.$XCH fully utilizes the increased disk bandwidth of PCIe4.0
Streaming performance to maximize CPU efficiency
Can also be installed as a standalone build
CLI documentation
Example commands
The following command will create an uncompressed plot (plot compression is disabled in Chia version 2.0.0). If the farmer is on a different machine, it will use the specified key and contract address. It will allocate 32 GB of DRAM cache and use the specified temporary drive (usually an SSD) and target drive. It will use default values for the remaining parameters:
chia plotter bladebit plot -t -d -f -p / c --cache 32G -n 1 --compress 0 Those playing with the dog token are still waiting to break even, while those selling the shovels have already made some moves 😂
PUMP this time is not just a single-day surge; it rose 14.67% in 24 hours, hitting a new high since "1011".
It has increased about 39% in the past 7 days and about 48% in the past 30 days.
The business is also expanding: daily transaction volume on the Pump.fun App on Solana has grown from about $5 million three months ago to over $40 million recently, roughly 8 times the previous scale.
Of course, transaction volume does not equal revenue.
More importantly, there is buyback.
Currently, the official team uses 50% of revenue for buyback and burn; from September 27 to October 3, the announced buyback amount totaled about $8.08 million.
Third-party tracking shows that as of October 4, buybacks in the past 30 days totaled about $24.7 million.
Issuing tokens, trading, collecting fees, then buying back their own tokens—the "selling shovels" story now has real money backing it.
My judgment: the trend remains strong, but having risen nearly 50% in the past month, it is more likely to consolidate first before choosing a direction.
Next, watch if around 0.006 can hold as support; upward, see if it can break through and hold above 0.00659, then test 0.007; if it falls below 0.006 and fails to recover promptly, the strength of the uptrend needs to be reassessed.
Buybacks provide buying pressure but do not guarantee a rise. Market observation only, not investment advice.At 10 o'clock, I checked the top gainers list again, and $AXS surged sharply—spot price is about 1.37, up roughly thirteen and a half points from the 24-hour open at 1.21, with a daily high touching 1.45 and a daily low of 1.19, and trading volume close to 2.7 million U.
On the perpetual side, the nominal position is about 5 million dollars, with a slightly negative funding rate, meaning shorts are paying. BTC is hovering around 85,200, and $ETH is about 2700. In the short term, watch if anyone steps in above the daily high of 1.45; if it falls back to around 1.20, don't chase aggressively.
$BTC $ETH $AXS #AXS #Axie #TopGainers #WeekendMarket
#TheFedAndECBToReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes #BTCSpotETFFlowsBackIn,ETHFundsContinueOutflow #Bessent:USBondYieldsRiseInLineWithGlobalTrends
#RiskWarning
The above does not constitute investment advice; manage your positions, the market carries risks. $XCH Bladebit Disk
Disk-based (HDD or SSD) CPU plotter, included with Chia 2.0
Plotting capabilities
Type: Uncompressed only in Chia 2.0, compressed starting from 2.1
Size: k32 only
Requirements
Operating System: Windows, Mac, or Linux OS (64-bit required); supports both Intel and ARM (Apple chips).
Memory: At least 2 GB available RAM, fewer buckets require up to 12 GB
Temporary Disk: 480 GB in default mode, 390 GB in default mode with alternate mode enabled; can be HDD or SSD:
SSD: Fast (NVMe supported), but consumer-grade SSDs wear out over time; enterprise-grade SSDs recommended
HDD: Slower but no wear; can plot directly to final disk
GPU: Not used
More Information
Designed for embedded or entry-level systems
Can only create uncompressed plots (C0, 101.4 GiB) in Chia 2.0 version
Uses temporary HDD or SSD storage, making it accessible to most farmers
Sequential writes better utilize SSD burst performance and reduce SSD wear by lowering write amplification
DRAM write cache can significantly reduce SSD writes and can use any additional increments (no minimum required) What I say is just a bias, but whose words are not? Volume One: Scrap Iron and Blind Following (2015-2019) I am a pure technical analyst, ignoring news and fundamentals. After seven years of market trading, I often recall my original self. During the epic A-share bull market in 2015, I knew nothing about stocks. But amid the enthusiasm of all investors, I joined in. With 30,000 yuan in capital to enter the market, I casually bought a stock with a 20% unrealized gain. Just a few months later, I encountered a stock market crash. At that time, everyone around me was analyzing what the company was doing and how much profit it made. I knew nothing and found it quite profound. Later, when I started working at the company, I gained some fundamental concepts. You have to see if revenue and profit have grown; this year should be better than last year, and last year better than the year before. Even stocks bought by this logic still lost money. I still didn't get it. At the end of 2017, the Web 3.0 boom pushed Bitcoin prices to $20,000. A few friends made money buying mining machines early on, so I wanted to invest too. I bought six machines at 25,000 yuan each. A year later, I mined one Bitcoin. But the price dropped from $20,000 to $3,000, and the value of this Bitcoin was only about the same as the monthly electricity bill for the mining machine. At that point, the mining machine was basically scrap metal, so I sold both the Bitcoin and the machine at the lowest point. With a 150,000 investment, only 1,100 yuan remained. In 2019, as Bitcoin's price started rising, those friends started trading contracts, and I topped up a few thousand yuan. Because it comes with 10x leverage, it can be muddled and then doubled again10月可能是今年美股最容易出大波动的月份,就业、CPI、美联储和大科技财报全挤在一起了。 把关键日期整理出来： 10月2日，9月非农。10年期美债已在5%附近，非农明显超预期，市场就会重新交易"高利率更久"；明显降温，科技股反而先涨。 10月7日，9月FOMC会议纪要。重点看内部对通胀的分歧有多大，上次会议有两票反对，纪要会暴露裂痕的深度。 10月13日起，Q3财报季开席。JPM、Goldman、Citi打头，银行是最好的经济温度计：信用卡逾期、企业贷款、投行业务会告诉你经济有没有真降温。 10月14日、15日，CPI和PPI连续两天。上半月最重要的48小时——通胀若抬头，收益率继续往上顶，科技股估值再承压；通胀回落，市场才有空间松一口气。 10月下旬，大科技财报周。$TSLA 先来，然后$GOOGL 、$META 、Microsoft、Apple、Amazon。这轮我关注的不是beat几个点，而是：Google的Cloud和AI资本开支能不能继续兑现，Meta的AI投入换回多少广告和用户增长，Azure和AWS还在不在加速，Tesla直接看交付、利润率和RobI’m not looking at PONS’s K-line today; the more I look, the more frustrated I get 😭
I went to check out Pons Launchpad and found something pretty ridiculous: PONS itself has dropped about 30% in the last 7 days, but the meme-posting bots below haven’t stopped at all.
There are now over 167,000 tokens climbing the graduation curve on the platform, with more than 2,300 actually having graduated. An earlier on-chain statistic from Bitquery is also shocking: from August 3 to September 3, in just one month, Pons created 207,000 tokens, with nearly 20,000 tokens launched per day in the last week.
The most heartbreaking part is, despite all the hype, making money is a completely different story.
Bitquery counted over 310,000 participating wallets at the time, and 66.8% ended up with less money than they put in. The project creators collectively took about $9.7 million in fees, while the median creator only earned $15.73.
This data really woke me up.
Pons now feels like a casino packed at 3 a.m.: the price of PONS at the door has already crashed, but inside, new Memes keep popping out every minute.
So next time I see someone in the group say "$PONS new coin, should I rush in?", I might first ask:
Which number are you talking about? The ones just launched today might already be too many to count 😭Many people keep flipping through my positions this week, but this is actually a negative example. The net exposure switched back and forth several times within a week. You might think this is flexibility, but most of the time it's just being led by the market. The ones who truly make money are never the quickest hands; it's those few times when you confidently bet and hold after correctly identifying the direction. The sense of direction in $BTC is always more valuable than precise entry points. Frequent in-and-out trades only grind your profits down to fees. How many times have you changed your mind this week? Taking advantage of the weekend to chat a bit about AI security issues, why do major leading companies and the US government impose strict scrutiny on AI security, and even companies conduct self-inspections?
The logic is actually very simple: without ruling out security risks, it is impossible to establish human trust in artificial intelligence; without trust in AI, it is impossible to establish an AI reputation system; without an AI reputation system, it is impossible to ultimately form an AI economy.
Previously proposed concepts like Web4 in the US, or A2A and the AI economy, when artificial intelligence becomes a collective, a reputation system is essential, and security is the foundation of that reputation! #英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 There was a recent piece of news about $ZEC, and my first reaction was not optimism but a bit of concern.
Chainalysis, while tracking the approximately $387 million stolen from Bitget, found that the attacker quickly dispersed the assets across chains, with about 7.6% of the funds moving into Zcash.
Roughly calculated, that's close to $30 million.
To be clear, this is definitely not a case of "hackers all use ZEC, so ZEC is great."
Stolen funds entering a privacy network is itself a risk event.
But it just so happens to highlight the most contradictory aspect of Zcash:
To what extent should privacy be achieved to be considered successful?
If no one is willing to use a privacy network, no matter how well the technology is developed, it’s meaningless. But once it can truly hide fund flows and large amounts start to use it, regulators and exchanges will definitely watch more closely.
$ZEC has recently reached this very point.
On one hand, more ZEC is accumulating in the Shielded Pool, and NU7 is ready to further improve network efficiency; on the other hand, traditional entry points like ETFs and exchanges are pushing ZEC into more mainstream markets.
Trying to pursue both paths is not that simple.
So this time, I’m actually less concerned about how much ZEC the hacker finally exchanged.
I’m more interested in whether exchanges and regulators will take new actions afterward.
Because the real big test for ZEC may no longer be "whether anyone needs privacy."
It’s whether, after people really start using it, it can still remain in the mainstream market.
This is the toughest and most worth-watching challenge I see ahead for ZEC.
This is just my personal summary, not investment advice, DYOR. SOL has real ETF buying pressure—recording 18.8 million in a single week, eight consecutive days of net inflows, and total assets surpassing XRP. SOL has a real ecosystem—DApp revenue exceeds the combined total of Ethereum + Hyperliquid + BSC, tokenized stock addresses doubled in one month, and stablecoin supply hit a historic high of 17.3 billion. SOL has real institutional adoption—90 banks in North Dakota are running Roughrider Coin in production.
But SOL also has real issues: MACD momentum has dropped to zero, bears still dominate trading volume, and the 125 sell wall has yet to be tested.
This rally from 113 to 120 is essentially a quadruple squeeze of “Fed dovish shift + record ETF inflows + interbank payment implementation + short squeeze.” All four are real.
120 is not a “breakout.” 120 is a “springboard.” If volume surges and it holds above 125, 130 is the next gate. If 125 is rejected, 118 and 116.07 become the next reference points for bulls.
Don’t talk about “chasing highs” on a night when 87% of shorts are liquidated. First, see if 125 can be taken out. If it is, 130 awaits. If not, 118 will provide support.
(The above content does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; only those alive have the right to talk about the future.) $SOL $BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：🔥SAND Quick View｜Waiting for Resistance Level to Short📉
Current price 0.079, daily RSI at 95.83, extremely overbought!
Bottom rallied 2.5 times, profit-taking crowd gathering, previous high 0.08299 as resistance.
✅Strategy: No short at current price, wait to short in the 0.081~0.083 range
Entry 0.082｜Stop loss 0.086
TP1: 0.074 Close half position
TP2: 0.071｜TP3: 0.065
💬Guess if it can reach the 0.083 resistance level?#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
The probability of a Fed rate hike in October has dropped to 22.1%. How will $ETH perform in the short term?
CME data shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October has risen to 77.9%, with only a 22.1% chance of a 25 basis point hike. Market concerns about a rate hike in the short term have clearly cooled.
But December looks less optimistic: the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike reaches 67.3%, meaning the market still bets on at least one more rate hike this year.
Looking at ETH, currently priced around $2698, it has climbed back above the MA20 (at $2692). After rebounding from $2633 earlier, the short-term structure has somewhat recovered.
My judgment is: before the October meeting, ETH is more likely to fluctuate with a slight upward bias, but the $2700–$2720 range remains a short-term resistance zone.
If it breaks through and holds above $2720, there is a chance to continue pushing toward $2740–$2777; otherwise, if it falls back below $2690, watch out for another retest near $2660.
What really needs attention now is not whether there will be a rate hike in October, but whether the expectation of a December hike will continue to heat up. $NEAR has risen 156% in three months, and with such a big hack news on the 1st, it only retraced 15% after 4 days, which seems a bit unreal:
The real driver is the growth of NEAR Intents, with a cumulative cross-chain settlement of $32.79 billion, a daily volume of $2.14 billion, and a single-day DEX volume surpassing Avalanche; native TVL is between $194 million and $230 million.
There is also an expectation that before the 11th, a vote will reduce the inflation from 2.5% to 1.6% (about 66 million tokens will never be minted).
Currently, the aftermath of the $3.8 million hack on the project team has not yet dissipated, so everyone should be cautious and observe for now. Support is at 4.5; if it breaks, look at 4.2. If it stands above 5.6, it means the hacker shadow is completely gone and a recovery rally is underway.Brothers, in the active group, some are firmly long on $ZEC, but I still insist on being bearish. Right now, those going long are all retail investors, while whales are selling off.
Look at the market: ZEC current price is 1,305.60, I opened a short at 1,400.99 with a floating profit of 20.44%. Also shorted $SOL at 120.94, current price 118.26, floating profit 6.64%, both positions are in profit.
Why are retail investors still going long? Because the majority are bullish, the long-to-short ratio is 93% longs to 7% shorts, retail investors are all catching the falling knife. But what are the whales doing? On-chain data shows Grayscale ZEC spot ETF had a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, cumulative net inflow shrank from 268 million to 212 million. Institutions are withdrawing, big players are selling, only retail investors are foolishly catching the falling knife.
The previous rise to 1,660 was all built on leverage, contract trading volume is more than ten times the spot volume, without new funds entering, prices pushed up by leverage will have to come down sooner or later. The overall market is weak, BTC is stuck around 83,000, ETH tried three times to break 2,750 but failed, funds are withdrawing.
Technically, ZEC MACD shows a high-level death cross, RSI is falling from the overbought zone, volume is shrinking, a typical crash pattern. $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Recently focusing on news about three coins:
🔹 ONDO: On September 24, launched an on-chain portfolio product based on BlackRock's investment portfolio strategy; on September 29, announced cooperation with KakaoPay Securities to promote global distribution of Korean stocks. Asset tokenization business continues to advance.
🔹 ENA: There is a proposal to use protocol revenue for token buybacks, but relevant conditions must be met; the investor token unlock scheduled for October 5 deserves close attention. Unlocking does not mean immediate selling; the key is how the market absorbs it afterward.
🔹 ZEC: The NU7 upgrade testnet is expected to activate around October 6, with upgrade goals including shortening block time; meanwhile, in the week ending October 2, related spot ETFs saw a net outflow of about $93.56 million. Technical progress and capital outflow coexist.
$ZEC
After the news is implemented, it is also necessary to see if the larger market cycle cooperates. ONDO: Previously broke out with volume expansion; recently, volume bars have gradually shrunk during the pullback, so focus on the support after this breakout. ENA: Has already risen significantly from the bottom and is now pulling back; the focus is on whether it can stabilize and form consolidation again. ZEC: Had the largest prior gains, with more obvious high-level retracement; do not assume it is at a low just because it has fallen for a while.Order flow auctions should quantify user improvements
When wallets hand off trades to solvers for competition, multiple parties can simultaneously seek better paths instead of users trial-and-erroring across multiple pools themselves. Ideally, solvers subsidize user quotes with arbitrage space, and the winner delivers the optimal execution. The key is not just the term "auction" but whether the user ultimately receives a price truly better than public routing.
The more concentrated the order flow, the more likely auction platforms can control who sees the trades, who is eligible to bid, and how winners are determined. If evaluation rules lack transparency, the sorting rights originally in the public mempool simply shift to a new private entry point. $ETH trading experience can improve as a result, but the ecosystem must also prevent a few platforms from monopolizing traffic and counterparty information.
To measure order flow auctions, baseline quotes, execution improvements, failure rates, and solver concentration should be disclosed, and wallets should be allowed to switch entry points. How much price improvement users gain, and how much residual value platforms and solvers take, should all be reviewable. Real progress is not hiding MEV but ensuring that a verifiable portion of the value originally extracted returns to the transaction initiator.Bitcoin has returned above 85,000, mainly driven by weak US employment data and ETF capital inflows. However, the entire network saw an outflow of 582 million USD in the past 24 hours, with bulls dominating; this rebound carries a hint of blood. CRO rose 4.6% by burning 228 million tokens, HYPE repurchased and pushed up 3.55%, ENA simultaneously received institutional target prices while cutting fees and switching, resulting in a 9% drop due to the expected unlocking of 3.03 billion tokens. NEAR fell 4.6% dragged down by a 3.8 million vulnerability incident. The Porsche Web3 project that ran for nearly four years has also shut down.
Just placed my thermos on the windowsill, now talking about BEAMX. Current price is 0.002716, exactly stuck at a key resistance level. There is dense liquidation above, bullish momentum is clearly weakening, MACD bearish divergence has appeared, and oscillators are overbought. The cost-performance of chasing longs at this position is extremely low, with a high risk of pullback.
Direction: short. Entry zone is from 0.002716 to 0.002750, enter in batches. Take profit first target at 0.002580, second target at 0.002480. Stop loss at 0.002820; if broken, admit the mistake and exit. Avoid long positions near the current price, wait for a proper pullback.
This market is about riding volatility, don’t be greedy.
$BEAMX
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
@OKX星球 Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, bulls take a hit first
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000.
Unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
Newcomers think: bad data means crypto should rise.
Bad data means the economy is cooling, money withdraws first.
What you really need to watch is: $BTC fell 5%, $ZEC may fall 20%.
This multiple is not said casually.
Small coins have thin liquidity; the same sell order hitting the market amplifies the drop by four times.
Spot ETFs are simultaneously experiencing net outflows.
With fewer buyers, sell orders more easily push the price down.
Leveraged long positions are forcibly liquidated by the system, not voluntarily given up.
When the price hits the line, the system sells for you directly.
After selling, the price drops further, and the next batch of people get sold off.
The way $ZEC falls is never by its own will.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 $BTC $ZEC $XCH Bladebit Disk
Disk-based (HDD or SSD) CPU plotter, included with Chia 2.0
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Type: Uncompressed only in Chia 2.0, compressed starting from 2.1
Size: k32 only
Requirements
Operating System: Windows, Mac, or Linux OS (64-bit required); supports both Intel and ARM (Apple chips).
Memory: At least 2 GB available RAM, lower bucket count requires up to 12 GB
Temporary Disk: 480 GB in default mode, 390 GB in default mode -- alternate mode enabled; can be HDD or SSD:
SSD: Fast speed (NVMe supported), but consumer-grade SSDs wear out over time, enterprise-grade SSDs recommended
HDD: Slower speed but no wear; can plot directly to final disk
GPU: Not used
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Designed for embedded or entry-level systems
Can only create uncompressed plots (C0, 101.4 GiB) in Chia 2.0 version
Uses temporary HDD or SSD storage, making it accessible to most farmers
Sequential writes better utilize SSD burst performance and reduce SSD wear by lowering write amplification
DRAM write cache can significantly reduce SSD writes and can utilize any additional increments (no minimum required) OKB Bullish Signals:
• Above SMA-200: OKB has recently recovered above the 200-day moving average, a key technical signal that may indicate a long-term trend reversal.
• Increased Volume: Daily trading volume exceeds the 30-day average by 17.7%, showing renewed market interest.
• High ADX Trend Strength: ADX is 45.2, with +DI (31.3) significantly higher than -DI (18.8), indicating a strengthening uptrend.
• Positive On-Balance Volume (OBV): Funds are in accumulation, a bullish signal.
OKB is currently in a high-level consolidation phase following the ICE strategic investment event. This is the most important recent event for OKB, as Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announced a strategic investment in OKX, valuing it at approximately $25 billion, with ICE gaining a board seat.
Significance of the event: This marks a key step for traditional financial giants accelerating their embrace of crypto assets, strengthening OKX's institutional and compliance image, and is interpreted by the market as a positive signal for OKX's U.S. business expansion and potential IPO.
OKX executed a record-breaking supply reduction—burning 279 million OKB tokens, valued at about $26 billion. The token supply is permanently fixed at 21 million, with no further unlocking or burning possible. The supply has been drastically reduced from previous levels, permanently locking in scarcity. OKB has also become the native Gas token of the X Layer, with demand no longer solely dependent on exchange fee discounts but directly linked to on-chain activity.The universe's number one bull, the crypto world's reverse beacon of hope. "Brother Maji," who has been liquidated over 500 times, is back with the same old script, continuously adding to long positions and stubbornly holding the market. Everyone has witnessed his historic moves of selling NFTs to cover margin calls when funds run low.
$BTC｜40X full-position long
Holding 300 BTC, entry price 84719.50, unrealized profit of 41,000 U
Making a little money on Bitcoin, but with 40x leverage, this small profit won't last long under pressure; even a slight market pullback can wipe it out.
$ETH｜25X full-position long
Holding 37,000 ETH, entry price 2688.97, unrealized loss of 250,000 U
Ethereum is suffering heavy losses; 25x leverage amplifies the loss, and if it drops further, liquidation is near.
$HYPE｜10X full-position long
Holding 181,000 HYPE, entry price 89.74, unrealized loss of 280,000 U
This is the worst losing position; the more he adds, the deeper the trap, pressure maxed out.
$PUMP｜10X full-position long
Holding 1.2 billion PUMP, entry price 0.01, unrealized profit of 42,000 U
Only PUMP is able to recover some losses, but this gain is nowhere near enough to cover the big hole.
Relying on the meager gains from Bitcoin and PUMP to support the position, ETH and HYPE are dragging heavily. Without stop-losses, stubbornly holding to the end, the total unrealized loss in the account has surged to 450,000 U. A bunch of long positions are hanging in the air. If the market continues to crash, it might replay the scene of selling collectibles to cover margin calls again. The risk of chained liquidations is always present.ETH has a pretty scary data point these past two days: 830,000 ETH queued for unstaking.
But don't rush to call a dump yet.
A large part of this is related to proactive exits following the MetaMask security incident; unstaking ≠ selling.
What's even more interesting is the other side:
Nearly 1.5 million ETH queued to stake, which is more than those exiting. 😂
So for now, I’m not bearish on ETH based on this data.
The real danger is that after MetaMask’s batch is digested, the exit queue keeps getting longer $ETH#VanEck: Bitcoin may continue to expand its market share Don't set your alarm: starting December 6, US stocks will become "23 hours without lights off"
This time Wall Street isn't working overtime; it's putting the "closing bell" into a museum.
Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, 24X, and Cboe EDGX plan to extend US stock trading to 23 hours a day, 5 days a week starting December 6, 2026, only leaving 8–9 PM Eastern Time for system maintenance.
On the surface, it's to make it easier for Asian retail investors to trade Nvidia during the day, but the real reason is that crypto and prediction markets have pushed "7×24" trading through, and if traditional exchanges don't extend hours, young people will all go on-chain to buy fake stocks.
But don't romanticize it: night sessions currently account for less than 1% of total volume, with 37% from overseas clients and only 7% from institutions; bid-ask spreads can be 5 to 10 times wider than daytime, with 15 stocks accounting for half the volume, and low-priced and meme stocks being the craziest.
Why don't institutions move?
Low liquidity + wide spreads + sudden earnings reports = "If you place a market order, the dark pool treats you as lunch." So night session rules include limit orders, 20% price bands, and halts on major news, all to protect retail investors.
In plain language:
US stocks are trading overnight, but 2 AM isn't when opportunities abound, it's when there are more inexperienced traders.
Asians finally don't have to stay up late watching the market, but the market also loses the "sleep on it before deciding" buffer—
The ones who really make money aren't those who don't sleep, but those who know not to place random orders at night. BTC Evening Market Analysis for October 4
On the 1-hour chart, the most noteworthy aspect recently is not the price rebound itself, but that after the surge and subsequent pullback, market positions and active trading volume have not expanded in line with the price. Currently, it appears to be undergoing a low-volatility rebalancing phase. Structurally, the price previously surged quickly from around 84,000 to above 87,000, then experienced a clear pullback, dropping back to near 84,000. After the pullback, the price did not continue downward but formed a new small range between 84,000 and 85,500. The price is now approaching the upper boundary of this range again, showing short-term oscillation with a slight bullish bias, but it has not truly broken through the previous resistance.
During the earlier surge, open interest (OI) increased significantly, but as the price fell back, OI quickly declined in sync. During the recent sideways movement, OI has remained basically flat and has not increased noticeably with the gradual price rebound. This indicates that the current rise is not driven by a large influx of new positions but is more of a stock game after clearing previous positions. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) remains near the zero line, currently slightly positive but with very limited overall change. In other words, the recent price rebound from around 84,000 to above 85,000 has not been accompanied by a clear sustained active buying push.
The price is repairing upward, but CVD has not expanded correspondingly. This is a key feature of the current market. The core point is that the price is recovering from a previous rapid decline, but OI has entered a sideways phase and CVD lacks continuity. Market trading activity has clearly decreased. This looks more like a "low-position consolidation" after intense volatility rather than the start of a new trend. The focus going forward is on the upper boundary near 85,500.
If the price breaks through and holds above this level, with OI expanding upward again and CVD significantly increasing, then this breakout will have stronger continuation potential, possibly retesting around 87,000. If the price is blocked again at the upper boundary and OI remains flat or even declines, the range-bound oscillation may continue, or the price could retest near 84,000.
[This is not a suitable time to chase the rally. The key is to wait for confirmation of OI and CVD after a range breakout. Follow the breakout resonance. If sideways movement continues, maintain a range-trading approach.]October is going to explode, keep an eye on these dates
October might be the most volatile month this year, with employment, CPI, the Federal Reserve, and big tech earnings all packed together. Any single data point could trigger a move of several hundred points. I've organized the key dates, remember to follow, thanks 🙏
October 7: FOMC meeting minutes. Last time there were two dissenting votes, let's see how big the internal divisions are. Starting October 13, Q3 earnings season begins, banks report first, and credit card delinquency data best reflects the economy's health.
October 14 and 15: CPI and PPI on consecutive days—this is the most critical 48 hours of the month! I've always said non-farm payrolls are just an appetizer; CPI is the main course. Inflation rising keeps tech stocks under pressure; only when inflation eases can the market breathe.
Late October is big tech earnings week: Tesla, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon report in turn. Don't just look at whether they beat estimates; focus on whether AI investments are being realized.
October 27-28: FOMC. With midterm elections approaching, a rate hike is unlikely, but every word in the statement will be scrutinized. October 29: GDP preliminary and PCE on the same day—testing the economy and inflation simultaneously, very intense.
So many events packed into one month. Avoid heavy positions before major data, set stop losses, and trade within ranges. Opportunities come from waiting, not chasing.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Gold surged to 4226 then retreated on low volume, next week's market forecast
Non-farm payrolls were positive, gold surged above 4200 but then sharply retreated on low volume, causing many to wonder why the data seemed ineffective.
Positive data does not mean an immediate one-sided rise; the short-term market has already priced in some expectations in advance. There is a possibility of further decline early next week, with a risk of breaking the 4110 low. Whether the benefits from improved employment data can continue depends mainly on upcoming CPI inflation data.
Before key data thresholds, it is advisable not to act rashly. For medium to long-term trends, wait for next week's monthly close to analyze further. $XAU Macro focus lost, crypto circle self-rescues
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, rate cut trades repriced; 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.6%, hitting a new high since 2002. Macro signals conflict with each other, risk assets lose a unified anchor, digital currencies can only go their own way.
Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage narrative faces a stress test; US and Iran return to the negotiation table, but deep divisions remain, a formal agreement is unlikely soon.
BTC currently at 83,074. After touching 86,000 the day before yesterday, it entered sideways trading, 80,000 shifted from resistance to support. Short-term box is clear: 85,000 is the lower boundary, 87,000 is the upper boundary. A valid breakout above 87,000 opens imagination for 88,000–90,000; no need to rush to bottom-fish if it falls below 85,000, 83,000 is the next defense line. Rate cut expectations fluctuate, ETF funds move in and out, so the market is still mainly oscillating.
ETH at 2,660, relatively resilient, 2,700 is the short-term key. A 35% staking rate provides a buffer, selling reluctance supports the price; but ETFs lack sustained buying, locked positions also amplify volatility.
Currently BTC seeks stability, ETH holds firm, ZEC squeezes shorts. Overall network leverage is high, weekend liquidity is thin, fault tolerance is very small. Light spot positions, stop-losses on hand, high-leverage contracts and holding positions should not appear in such a market.
When macro focus is lost, the crypto circle can only self-rescue.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will release September meeting minutes
#TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard $SAND Dogecoin, such high leverage with huge volatility, and it's not even one-sided. Enter one, lose one. With 50x leverage, the principal doubles on average every five minutes. It's all emotional volatility $AXS
The long-standing blockchain game project quietly picked up today; the increase isn't explosive but still ranks well.
The price is rising, yet the funding rate is negative, meaning shorts have to pay longs.
Open interest increased by 41.8% in a single day, with long positions accounting for over 60%, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
Current price at 1.36, pulling back to 1.30 with reduced volume—watch closely, avoid chasing the highs.
$AXS The $PUMP spike shown here is a textbook example of accumulation on the 1-hour chart.
$PUMP first consolidates at two red supply levels of 120.5M and 211.9M, with a long lower shadow piercing down to the 10.19M mark—a classic liquidity sweep that wipes out many long stop losses.
The turning point is at the 46.57M green support zone: the price hit there and didn’t go lower, then reversed sharply in a near V-shape, breaking through 74.97M first, then swallowing the entire 211.9M supply block. It now stands back at 0.0062, consolidating near the highs.
The chart and real market data are even more impressive: up 147% in the past month, 52-week high at 0.008967, with a market cap around 2.46 billion. Behind it is the pump.fun protocol, which had weekly revenue exceeding 10 million USD in August and accounts for 98% of Solana’s token issuance—this is not just empty meme hype.
There’s a divergence in the long-short ratio: Aggregated data at 0.9619 slightly favors shorts, OKX accounts at 0.64 clearly favor shorts, but Binance accounts at 1.2523 and large holders at 1.6353 are all long. Retail traders on OKX are short, while big holders on Binance are buying.
Final note: that 10.19M spike was no accident. The price swallowing two supply blocks and rising 147% in a month indicates the tokens have been accumulated, leaving only those who got dumped on.
Don’t chase the highs; wait for a pullback to 74.97M or 211.9M and confirm support before entering. If it breaks below the 46.57M support, the rebound is over.SOL at $121, are you chasing it?
ETF inflows last week were only $800,000, compared to $188 million the week before. From $188 million down to $800,000, inflows have almost dried up. Yet SOL is still holding firm at 121, grinding along the upper edge of the 117-125 range. Is this a buildup for a breakout, or are the main players quietly retreating?
Let's look at the surface first: the daily bullish trend remains, but buying pressure has stopped.
Price is above all major moving averages: 50-day MA at 105, 200-day MA at 86. Up 41% in August, 15% in September, and October has consolidated in the 117-125 range. RSI is in a strong zone but no longer expanding. The 24-hour volatility is only $2, shrinking as it clings to the 121.9-122.7 resistance wall.
The daily chart tells you: bulls haven't broken down. The 4-hour chart tells you: buyers haven't come back. This is the most dangerous state.
First point: ETF inflows have stopped, the most painful signal.
The week before last, spot SOL ETF inflows were $188 million; last week, only $800,000.
From $188 million to $800,000 is not a slowdown, it's a cliff dive.
Cumulative net inflows are still above $1.6 billion, with Bitwise's BSOL still the largest share, but the slope of continuous inflows has broken. What does this mean?
In plain terms: previously, over a hundred million new money came in weekly to prop it up; now the carriers have left, leaving only those inside the sedan chair looking at each other.
Why can't it hold above 124? Because new money isn't coming. Relying only on existing funds can't push it.
You might say, stablecoin supply hit a new high of $17.3 billion, the RWA narrative is still alive, the SEC granted a five-year exemption for tokenized stocks, and Solana is a major recipient. Yes, all true.
But these are mid-to-long-term stories, not spot buying this week.
The fundamental problem is: the network is in use, but the token isn't profitable. Validators take the bulk of fees; token holders get a low share. Staking rate is near 70%, annualized 5%, locked tokens support price but don't mean the token is capturing network value.
This doesn't mean SOL is failing; the pricing logic has changed: from "weekly inflows over a hundred million" back to "can inflows return?"
Second point: macro conditions don't allow for an independent rally.
SOL and BTC share the same pricing logic. October rate hike odds dropped from 66% to 22-40%, sounds bullish? But the 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5.3%, soft data hasn't pushed the long end down.
BTC is at 85,200, stuck in the upper half of the 83,000-87,200 box. SOL has been almost flat in the past week, +1.4% in 24 hours, moving in sync with BTC, no independent rally.
Three major upcoming events: October 14 CPI, October 28 FOMC, October 29 PCE.
If BTC effectively breaks below 83,800, SOL's 117 level will be hard to hold alone. This is not alarmism; it's the fate of high-beta assets. When the market coughs, altcoins get a fever.
Alpenglow hasn't confirmed its mainnet launch date yet. Fault tolerance threshold raised from 33% to 40%, validator voting moved off-chain—this is a mid-term story, partially priced in. Before all the good news is out, first see if it can pass 124.
Third point: technically, low volume clinging to resistance, the biggest fear is a sudden volume dump.
After failing at 123.8 on October 2, SOL has been consolidating within the range. 121 is pressing against the near-term wall at 121.9-122.7, with only $2 volatility today.
Low volume at resistance is hesitation, not buildup.
Key levels:
Near-term resistance: 121.9-122.7 → 124-125 (late September highs). Only above 125 do we look at 130, channel upper edge 135, narrative target 148 requires passing 125 first.
Near-term support: 119.5 → 117-118 → 116.5. Only below 116.5 do we look at 113-114.
Daily close above 125 and holding upgrades the recovery. Close below 117 breaks the range downward, next support at 116.5/113.
Daily swings of $3-5 are common. Moves from 121 to 117 or 121 to 125 can happen within one or two days.
Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide:
On one side:
Daily bullish structure intact, price above all major MAs
Cumulative ETF net inflows over $1.6 billion, institutional channel open
Stablecoin supply at $17.3 billion high, RWA + tokenized stock narrative real
70% staking rate, locked tokens support price
On the other side:
Weekly ETF inflows crashed from $188 million to $800,000, marginal buying stopped
Token holders' fee share low, staking ≠ profit
Can't hold above 124, low volume at resistance
If BTC breaks 83,800, SOL's 117 won't hold
CPI/FOMC/PCE three major events upcoming
Trading strategy
1. Don't chase longs at 121.
Resistance is at 122.7/125. Wait for 4-hour close above 122.7 with volume, then look at 124-125, stop loss below 120. Only above 125 consider 130. Chasing longs in the middle is giving liquidity to the main players.
2. Buy on dips.
Prefer to wait for a long lower wick at 117-118 as a bottom signal, then scale in with stop loss below 115.5. First target back to 122, hold above that then look at 125.
3. Short only on resistance.
If it rebounds to 124-125 with volume and upper wick, and 4-hour can't reclaim, light short with stop loss above 126.5, target 119.5/117. Don't guess the top at 121; daily MAs are still below.
4. Invalid conditions.
Daily close below 117, exit longs. If ETF inflows continue near zero, breakout above 125 loses weight. If BTC breaks 83,800 effectively, reduce leverage. Not suitable for high leverage overnight before CPI.
You might think 121 is the eve of a breakout, but you haven't seen ETF inflows drop from $188 million to $800,000.
When it breaks below 117, you'll realize:
It's not that SOL is failing, it's that you mistook "no buyers" for "building momentum."
$BTC $ETH $SOL STRK surged onto the trending list, overbought at 74.7, still rising +25.6%
$STRK 0.0554, 24h +25.6%, also trending on CoinGecko — overbought alert sounding, but I'm still bullish.
The chart is speaking — daily MACD golden cross above zero line, MA7 positioned above MA30 in a bullish alignment, Bollinger Bands width at 68.5%, closing above the upper band. The capital flow is even more honest — OI 398,954,570.90, up +35.71% since early morning, volume ratio 3.957. 7d +30.92%, 30d +111.93%, this is not a one-day wonder.
The overall market is cooperating, in an offensive phase, breadth 42/17, BTC 85258.47 standing above ma7 84313.90, fear and greed index 65. The risk is that the mainstream coins' long-short account ratio average is 2.22, exceeding the 2.2 congestion line — pullbacks will be intense, but as long as the trend isn't broken, no top guessing.
Resistance above: 0.05685 (24h high)
Support below: 0.04474 (4h SAR)
Break 0.05685 with volume to chase new highs; if volume shrinks and 0.04474 isn't broken, it's a consolidation. Enter at 0.0554, cut losses if it falls below 0.04474, hold if it doesn't break above 0.05685. Follow me, no confusion in the next wave.
$STRK $BTC#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
• How many people think this is a one-time rate hike (precautionary) or the start of a tightening cycle?
• The characterization of "inflation picking up again": is it due to temporary factors like energy prices, or sticky inflation in wages and services?
• Has anyone explicitly mentioned that there will be no move on October 28?
The answers to these three questions directly determine how the market prices October 28. Currently, CME FedWatch shows about a 77% chance of no change in October (as of October 4) — the market assumes this is the last hike. If the minutes show a hawkish tilt, this 77% will be quickly repriced.
What to watch on the ECB side: how the council internally explains the unusual phenomenon of "Eurozone inflation being higher than the US," and whether any members have started to worry about price pressures within the Eurozone itself rather than just weak growth.
Two scenarios:
• Hawkish (minutes show most see the rate hike as the start of a new cycle) → USD and US Treasury yields rise, gold and risk assets come under pressure
• Dovish (minutes suggest a "one-time" nature) → reinforces the "end of rate hikes" narrative, risk assets and gold rebound
My baseline judgment: the minutes are likely neutral to slightly hawkish — unanimous approval means members don’t want to appear weak in the minutes. But the real ammunition will only be revealed with the October 14 CPI (consensus 3.7%). This week is about expectation games; next week is the data showdown. $XCH Plotter
BladeBit CUDA
GPU plotter, included in Chia 2.0
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Type: compressed or uncompressed
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Operating System: Windows 11 or Debian/Ubuntu Linux (MacOS and other Linux versions may be supported in the future)
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The latest BladeBit plotter, designed specifically to work with CUDA-class GPUs
Creates compressed plots, up to C9 (75.2GB)
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Can also be installed as a standalone build
Detailed performance analysis of BladeBit CUDA available at scienceofmining.com SOL just showed a sharp contrast: last week, ETFs aggressively absorbed $188 million, but this week only $2.4 million remained, a direct 99% shrinkage in capital heat.
Institutional buying suddenly quieted down, but on-exchange leverage hasn't left yet.
In the week of October 2, Solana spot ETFs still recorded net inflows, but only about $2.4 million. Just the previous week, this figure was $188 million, with a single-day peak inflow reaching $86.7 million.
What's more interesting is that SOL's price did not weaken in sync.
Currently, SOL is still fluctuating around $121, with a 7-day performance down about 2.4%. Meanwhile, the open interest in the futures market is about $4.1 billion, and funds have not fully withdrawn despite the ETF cooling off.
This creates today's most notable contradiction for SOL:
Spot funds suddenly cooled down, but futures funds are still on the exchange.
Moreover, the current funding rate remains positive, with longs still paying funding fees.
Support is first seen around $118–$120, with resistance near $125.
If ETF funds expand again, spot support will become the focus; if ETFs continue to shrink while futures positions accumulate, the market will need to watch whether leverage moves first.
So the real hype for SOL this time is not about price movement.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $SOL ETH's broad trend preview
ETH bottomed on June 5th with the labor data, and the overall market rally started on July 1st.
So the downtrend during the entire bear market ended on June 30th.
On July 1st, after the Federal Reserve Chair's speech, the market pulled up sharply at 10 PM. The labor data on July 2nd was still good, further fueling the rally.
The CPI on July 14th continued to break through,
and after the FOMC ended on July 28th, the market dropped until the new labor data on August 7th caused a rise, forming a complete box range.
Then from August 7th to August 19th, there was box consolidation and a triangular convergence pattern, especially for ETH's trend, with lows steadily climbing higher over 13 days without breaking previous lows, leading to an extreme convergence.
On August 19th, the crypto roundtable led by the White House and Trump established a clear bill to be voted on the first day the Senate was in session, causing a surge.
Then from August 24th started another 24-day box consolidation, with a range close to 200 points between 2355 and 2550.
In between, there was a sharp drop on September 4th labor data and a false surge after the September CPI data.
When the bill vote and FOMC concluded, and all negative factors were priced in, the box bottom started near 2360,
then from September 17th to September 23rd, a rapid 3 to 5-day rally pushed the price to 2800.
Up to today, another box formed with a smaller range of about 120 points between 2626 and 2740, laying the groundwork for a subsequent explosive rally.Brothers, I really can't take it anymore.
Opened the app and saw that $ETH is still hovering around 2700, the price feels frozen, it can't go up, nor can it go down.
I'm still holding this short position:
Entry price: 2784.35
Current price: 2696.99
Profit: +313.77%
The problem is, for this additional position, I literally worked a week delivering takeout to save up 2000 yuan to recharge.
This 2000 yuan didn't come from thin air, Ethereum, please drop quickly, don't let me waste this whole week!
Now BTC is sideways, ETH is sideways, today ETH only rose 0.46%, with 2.55 million U liquidated in 24 hours, shorts liquidated 1.86 million U, longs liquidated 690,000 U.
Longs and shorts are torturing each other here, neither willing to admit defeat first.
I'm really struggling to keep going, staring at 2700 every day, my eyes are almost blurry.
Brothers, are you still trading ETH contracts recently?
Or have you been tormented by this sideways market to the point you don't want to play anymore? Let's chat in the comments.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要