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$BTC BTC is currently maintaining a wide oscillation range between $80,000 and $87,000, while ETH has fallen below $2,500, showing a clearly weak trend. The market fear and greed index has dropped from 71 to 56, with market sentiment shifting from greed to neutral, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
On the macro level, pressure continues to manifest: the 10-year US Treasury yield is at 5.24%, the 30-year yield remains above 5.6%, oil prices stay high, and the US dollar remains strong. Multiple factors collectively suppress the performance of global risk assets.
BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $679 million last week, and ETH ETFs have experienced net outflows for nine consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price is below the ETF average cost of $84,318, meaning ETF investors who entered the market are overall at a floating loss.
From a technical perspective, BTC’s key supports are at 81,000 and 77,000, with resistance levels at 84,000 and 86,500. Market trading expectations indicate a 67% probability that BTC will dip below $80,000 in October.
On the regulatory front, administrative work related to the CFTC and SEC continues to advance. BTC, ETH, XRP, and other assets are generally classified as digital commodities rather than securities, and the regulatory framework is gradually becoming clearer.
The altcoin sector is overall weakening, with Meme coin market share hitting a historic low. There is a phenomenon of funds flowing into some low-quality tokens on the market, so participation requires extra caution regarding risks $ETH $ZEC #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
$BTC Bitcoin started rising from 57000, reaching a high of 87300, completing the entire Wave 1 rally. Currently, it is operating within the Wave 2 X-wave consolidation and fluctuation structure. Inside the X-wave is a complex oscillation pattern alternating between abc and abc. After the smaller W-wave completes, the market will most likely experience another downward fluctuation before starting a new upward rally. Overall, the market is in a random oscillation pattern. In terms of strategy, do not blindly chase highs during the rise, and do not panic excessively during declines. Although there is still a possibility of another surge after the pullback, the subsequent rebound height is relatively limited, and the mainline participation value is low. It is better to focus on finding opportunities in other coins.
Breaking down by time cycle, the previous Wave 1 lasted over 80 days. According to wave theory, Wave 2 correction is expected to last at least 40 trading days, but so far only about 20 days have passed, meaning more than half of the adjustment time remains. This kind of repeated grinding oscillation is a very common phenomenon in a bull market process. The previous full bull market lasted nearly two years, with multiple back-and-forth pulls and repeated shakeouts being normal. Compared to frequent trading, maintaining enough patience is more important. Once the market structure undergoes substantial changes, trading strategies must be adjusted immediately.
$ETH $ZEC #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？
$BTC is currently still in a weak recovery phase in the overall crypto market, with the market sentiment generally cautious. Although mainstream coins have shown slight rebounds, the overall downtrend structure has not been truly repaired.
BTC is only experiencing a technical minor rebound at present, with a 2.6% decline over the past seven days, and no signs of a major trend reversal. The short-term market remains mainly in a consolidation and wait-and-see mode, with a key support level to hold at $82,000. Strong resistance is concentrated between $84,500 and $85,000. Only if the price can effectively stabilize above this resistance zone will the current rebound have the momentum to continue upward. Conversely, if the $82,000 support is decisively broken, the market will likely resume a bottom-seeking trend, and downside risk remains.
Compared to BTC, $ETH's rebound strength is weaker, with a decline exceeding 7% over the past seven days, clearly lagging behind BTC's overall pace. $2,475 is the most important short-term defensive support currently, with resistance to the upside between $2,520 and $2,550. Whether it can hold above this resistance zone will directly determine the strength of the subsequent rebound. If the $2,475 support is broken again, the price will continue to test lower levels for buying support! $ETH $ZEC #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 #阿斯麦Q3财报10月14日公布，EUV订单成焦点