诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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Today, due to the market bleeding, $STRK, $BCH, and $NEAR all dropped.
STRK suffered the worst drop, plunging 11%. Its market cap is only 478 million, but the volume-to-market cap ratio reached as high as 87%. This indicates that the whales are selling off, and there are very few retail buyers stepping in. It is already 98.5% away from its ATH, so it's recommended to avoid it.
BCH is the most stable, only slightly down 0.5% following the market trend. It is basically in full circulation now, with a volume-to-market cap ratio of just 2.5%, indicating clean chips and that not many people played it before.
Essentially, it still moves with BTC, mainly because its narrative is too old and there's not much excitement.
NEAR has also given back the gains from previous speculation, dropping 3%. It can only serve as a flexible position relying on AI storytelling. It has the largest market cap, but unlimited inflation is a time bomb, and it is 76.5% away from its ATH.
If it holds above 5, there is still hope; if it breaks below 4.3, it loses significance.
BCH is worth holding, NEAR should wait for a pullback, and STRK should be avoided.
The US stock market has been closed these past two days, and money is flowing into $BTC as a safe haven, while other coins are basically being drained:
BTC's safe haven status is the strongest. Its market cap is 1.63 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the entire market.
In the past two days, BTC has basically been trading sideways with low volume near the moving average, pressured at the 50-day SMA of 81,000, with an RSI of 45.67, which is neutral. If it falls below 80,000 in this wave, it indicates panic sentiment has arrived, and I will reduce my position by 10%.
$ETH has been hovering above the 7-day range bottom at 2,300 these past two days, mainly because the ETF outflows have been too severe.
Today's 24h volume is 6.2 billion, but there have been 10 consecutive days of ETF outflows, and it has dropped 51% from the ATH of 5,000. I'll wait for the ETF bleeding to stop before considering adding to my position.
$XRP has broken below the 50-day MA this time, with RSI at 18, which is directly oversold, indicating a complete shift to weakness.
Last month it was still surging, but this month it has basically been retracing. The most painful part is: XRP lacks the institutional support of a US spot ETF, relying purely on retail investors and Ripple's narrative.
In summary: BTC is the safe haven, ETH is the bleeding bag, and XRP is the oversold gamble.
Today is the weekend, and the trends of the three meme coins are also weak, all falling, but their drivers are different:
$DOGE has a total network transaction volume of 500 million and 1 billion open contracts today, making it the blue chip among memes.
But it does have quite a few problems: DOGE has unlimited issuance, releasing 5 billion coins per year, still 89% below its ATH. Actually, no one is calling it out, consensus is already quite weak.
$PEPE is purely driven by retail sentiment. Today, sellers account for 65.6% suppressing buyers at 34.4%, volume is shrinking, RSI is 41 below the 50-day moving average.
It is currently distributing at a high level, making it difficult to rise in the short term.
$TRUMP can basically be treated as a run-away asset, 97.6% below its ATH. Even worse is the unlocking sword hanging over it: 80% of the tokens are held by Trump-related entities, unlocking slowly over 3 years, still a sure way to crash the market.
Today RVOL is only 0.49, basically no one is trading, just a slow bleed down.
DOGE is a flexible position, entering now is still relatively low; PEPE still has a chance to rise if sentiment returns, but TRUMP can basically be given up on.
When the US stock market crashed yesterday, crypto on average dropped 3.42%. But platform coins were supported by buyback orders, so their prices stabilized, with an average stop in decline of 1.3%. For those holding spot positions, no need to panic:
$OKB was the most resilient, only dropping 1%, considered a stabilization after Thursday's deep drop. However, its weekly chart still hasn't stopped falling, so don't go all in lightly.
$BNB basically follows Bitcoin's movement, only down 1.2%. But its performance this year has been weak, having dropped 37% over the entire year.
Because it has penetrated the entire crypto ecosystem, it actually acts somewhat like a thermometer for the overall market.
$HYPE is the most dangerous. It touched 82.44 intraday but then dropped back to 78.95; it's unclear who's buying the dip. It has failed to break 83 several times in a row, clearly indicating someone is offloading.
Comparatively, among the three platform coins, OKB holds a bit more value to keep.
$ETH brothers, when ETH fell below 2400, everyone shouting to buy the dip in the community went completely silent.
The continuous bleeding of the ETF is too fierce, mainly because we still don't know why institutions are all fleeing, with a net outflow for 10 consecutive days, it's terrifying.
During the same period, BTC only had an outflow of 230 million, but it had an outflow of 320 million, the sell-off is too brutal.
In my positions, except for meme coins, ETH is already the weakest, down 10.8% from the 30-day average of 2685.
The last time this happened was in April last year, when ETH was sideways for three weeks, then plunged by 18%.
So it feels like next week it will most likely still be grinding around 2300.
+10.63%
Snapshot at Oct 17, 2026, 12:36
I heard that only large holders' positions get attention? Then I'll switch to rubles, is this number big enough? 😁😁😁
Let me talk about my holdings: 65% of my position is for stability, so I bought $BTC and ETH; 30% is for buying core flexible layers $SOL and $OKB, and 5% is for meme coins as lottery tickets, aiming for high returns.
1. BTC is the ballast stone, not because I expect it to rise the most, but because I want to be able to sleep well in any market condition.
Bitcoin has the deepest liquidity, the most thorough institutionalization, and the strongest faith. I believe it can reach 200,000 in 3 to 5 years, so I must hold firmly.
2. ETH supplements the core position because it has staking cash flow and a public chain narrative. The next bull market will likely make web3 the financial infrastructure, and ETH will benefit first.
3. OKB has buyback and burn deflation and is tied to the OKX ecosystem. OKX is now making the right moves in landing applications and building infrastructure. I believe that with traditional finance entering web3, OKX can get a share of the pie and has huge explosive potential.
SOL represents a high-performance L1, with the highest meme+DeFi activity. When tokens enter web2 daily consumption, I think Solana is the most likely candidate.
4. DOGE and PEPE are lottery tickets and have already dropped by half. Luckily, the position is small. DOGE is the benchmark meme coin, and PEPE is one of the most liquid memes.
+191.74%
Snapshot at Oct 10, 2026, 09:16
$SOL ecosystem news hits the headlines every day, yet the coin price is at the bottom of the 30-day range, really ugly.
1. In terms of funds, SOL is relatively weak; the ETF ended a continuous 14-week net inflow. This was originally the most stable support for SOL this year, now broken.
2. Technically, SOL's 30-day range is 100.9~124.63, currently only at the 10.7% percentile.
The price is now pressed below the 50-day SMA 108.75 but still above the 200-day SMA 86.85. The 24h trading volume is $1.6 billion, down 46% compared to the 30-day average.
3. This week SOL dropped 6.05%, which counts as a very weak token. It is still 64.8% away from the ATH 294.33, making it one of the deepest retracements among mainstream coins.
The only concern is: the 100.9 30-day low is a level SOL has tested three times without breaking. The fourth test is often the one that breaks. The 2022 FTX crash followed this pattern.
SOL's ecosystem data is not bad; what's bad is the flow of money. I estimate there is a 35% chance it will break below 100 next week, and a 25% chance it will rebound to touch 108.75.
$BTC has been stuck at the 50-day moving average for a week now, and it is estimated that a new direction will emerge next week.
1. On the macro side, October spot ETF net outflows exceeded $1 billion, with BTC outflows this week amounting to $230 million, about 2,809 BTC, equivalent to 0.94% of the global 24h trading volume of $24.2 billion.
Compared to last month's inflow of $2.39 billion in one week, it has shrunk by nearly 60%.
2. On the funding side, BTC leverage has dropped significantly, with open interest contracts at only 620,000 BTC, and the rest are basically dead longs.
3. In horizontal comparison, BTC is the most resistant to decline, only dropping 0.37% this week, while ETH fell 3.9% and SOL fell 6.1% during the same period.
Vertically, there is still a 35.5% gap from the ATH of 127,000, currently at the 78.4th percentile of the 90-day range.
This time is somewhat like the old script from 2019 when BTC consolidated sideways for three months during the "rate hike cycle," eventually breaking down first and then rebounding, taking 47 days to choose a direction.
My judgment is: next week there is a 35% probability of breaking below 78,500, and a 25% probability of recovering 83,555.
I originally thought that with such low trading volume over the weekend, there wouldn't be a big market move. Unexpectedly, the Nasdaq fell 2.15% last night, dragging down crypto.
The market is really bleak now, summed up in one sentence: interest rate hikes are suppressing valuations, oil prices are fueling inflation, and ETFs are still bleeding out.
1. September CPI at 3.7% and core CPI at 2.6% both exceeded expectations; the 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.6%, the highest since 2002. WTI has risen for 7 consecutive days to $101.71, Brent is approaching 110. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
2. The funding situation looks even worse: in October, the net outflow from US stock spot $BTC + $ETH ETFs exceeded $1 billion, with a net redemption of 610.7 million last week (ETH 320 million, BTC 230 million).
ETH ETFs have had net outflows for 10 consecutive days, $SOL ETFs ended 14 weeks of inflows and also had 9 consecutive days of net outflows. BTC open interest contracts have dropped to this year's low, only 580,000 left, the whole market is deleveraging.
3. The only bright spot: BTC ETFs recorded about $160 million net inflow yesterday, and the SEC approved tokenized stock trading exemptions last night.
But this volume can't fill the October gap. The biggest event this week: the FOMC decision on the 28th. CME currently prices in an 84.5% chance of no change in October and a 75.5% chance of a 25bp rate hike in December.
+26.93%
Snapshot at Oct 17, 2026, 12:35
Brothers who bought $MSTR, were you stunned by the crash today? Don't be too superstitious about US stocks, even for highly sought-after crypto stocks like $CRCL and $COIN.
1. Circle is the crypto stock least influenced by BTC, after all, it profits from the yield spread on reserve US Treasury bonds.
The higher the Treasury interest, the higher its earnings, so it might actually rise when BTC falls. It dropped to around 79 this week, down about 6%, due to regulatory pressure and competition from USDT in market share.
2. MicroStrategy's stock price plummeted today, not only because of BTC's pullback but also possibly related to it being kicked out of the MSCI index in November.
MSCI released new regulations today, and according to these, MSTR cannot be included. That's why MicroStrategy fell to around 143, since its main business isn't very profitable.
3. Coinbase is a crypto exchange stock with real revenue. Fees + custody + Base chain, recently dropped about 5% near 173.
It earns from industry activity; increased trading volume means profit release, but it's suppressed by regulation and fee competition, and its income is relatively low during a bear market.
This is my favorite crypto stock, after all, even Circle has to pay it a toll on its interest spread.