rainbow cat's Profile | OKX

$ETH $BTC This time, the crypto market downturn is mainly not due to a single sudden negative event, but a continuation of multiple overlapping macro pressures. The core reasons are roughly as follows: 1. Macro interest rates and U.S. Treasury yield pressure (the most important) - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains high at about 5.2%–5.3% (the highest in nearly 20 years). - High yields increase the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets (such as BTC, ETH), with funds more inclined to flow into safe assets like bonds. - The Federal Reserve continues to signal hawkishness (minutes show some officials consider another rate hike possible before year-end), and the market remains concerned about a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. - The U.S. CPI data will be released on October 14, a key recent catalyst, and the market is cautious ahead of the data. 2. Geopolitics and oil prices - Middle East situation (Iran-related, tanker incidents, attacks, etc.) has pushed oil prices up (Brent crude once approached or exceeded the $100–107 range). - Rising oil prices exacerbate inflation expectations, further strengthening rate hike pressure, causing risk assets to come under pressure. 3. Continued outflows from ETFs - As of the week ending October 9, spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $681 million, ETH ETFs about $542 million, both relatively large recent redemptions. - Institutional funds are withdrawing in phases, weakening buying support. 4. Leverage liquidations and sentiment factors - Previously high-leverage long positions have been successively liquidated, amplifying the decline. - Around the one-year anniversary of the October 10, 2025 "tariff shock + $19 billion liquidation," the market holds some caution about similar risks (although this round is much smaller than last year).

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