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ETH at $2490, can you still hold it? First, look at the surface: institutions are buying desperately, but the price can't rise. It has rebounded 30% from the low in the past 30 days, but in the last three weeks, it seems welded below 2500. Bitmine's total holdings have reached 5.93 million coins, close to 4.9% of the circulating supply, buying every week; Arthur Hayes publicly said ETH is his largest position, with a year-end target of $10,000. Then what? ETH is still hovering around 2490, unable to hold above 2500. First thing: institutions are buying, but you might be misled. Last week, Bitmine bought another 28,000 ETH (about $69.5 million), total holdings 5.93 million coins, close to 4.9% of circulating supply. Tom Lee gave a target price of $6000, Arthur Hayes shouted $10,000 by year-end. Bitmine's average cost is $3347, currently at a 25% unrealized loss. An institution with a 25% unrealized loss still buying is called "bottom fishing." If you follow in, is it "catching the falling knife" or "following the whale"? The key is, you are not Bitmine; you can't withstand another 20% drop. Second thing: The Federal Reserve is the biggest variable; the FOMC on September 15-16 will decide life or death. CPI comes out on September 11, PPI on September 10, FOMC meeting on September 15-16—the market prices in about a 50-60% chance of a 25bp rate hike. Soft data (inflation down) → no rate hike or even rate cut expectations rise → ETH directly surges to 2600-2800 Hard data (sticky inflation) → rate hike expectations rise → BTC breaks below 78k, ETH retests 2400 or even 2350 Third thing: three fundamental signals worth noting. Bullish 1: Exchange ETH reserves drop to multi-year lows. The coins are not on exchanges; whales are moving them into wallets—this is a typical "supply contraction" signal. Bullish 2: Hegotá upgrade advances account abstraction, allowing users to pay gas without holding ETH. Sounds minor? This is a key step to lower usage barriers, analogous to the internet's shift from "paid software" to "free + in-app purchases." Bullish 3: Staking rate rises to 34%, circulating float tightens further. There are fewer coins available to sell in the market. Fourth thing: The technical side has reached a critical decision point. Daily and 4-hour charts are within the upward channel since July lows, but for nearly three weeks have been oscillating in a 2440-2525 range. Price tested 2525 four times and was rejected, forming a clear supply zone. Moving averages are bullishly aligned (price above 20/50 EMA), RSI neutral, ADX low—the trend is not strong, but the structure is intact. High probability of continued range-bound oscillation, false breakouts may occur both up and down. Only a valid close above 2550 opens higher targets; breaking below 2440 retests lower support. Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide. On one side: Bitmine and other institutions keep accumulating, holdings near 5% of circulating supply Exchange ETH reserves at multi-year lows, supply contraction Staking rate 34%, circulating float tightens Upward channel structure since July intact Arthur Hayes calls for $10,000 by year-end, Tom Lee sees $6000 On the other side: Four rejections at 2500-2525, clear supply zone Market cautious before FOMC, 50-60% rate hike expectations ETF single-day outflow of $24.29 million, retail selling Mainnet fees decline, ETH turns inflationary Volume does not expand on breakout attempts Resistance above: 2500 → 2525 (four rejections) → 2550 (upper range) Support below: 2475 → 2440 → 2400 Trading strategy Short-term players: Bullish: Buy on dip at 2475-2485 if stable, target 2510-2525, stop loss 2440. Bearish: Light short at 2510-2525 rejection, target 2475-2440, stop loss 2550. Breakout strategy: Daily close above 2550 with volume, chase longs targeting 2600-2700; break below 2440 confirmed, reduce positions or target 2400. Swing players: 2440-2480 is a good zone for phased entries, target first 2800-3000. Premise: do not break the upward structure since July. Break below 2400, exit unconditionally. ETH is now at a crossroads of "institutions buying, price sideways, FOMC looming overhead"— 99% of people think "the sideways range has lasted too long, time to choose," but whenever the direction emerges, most are on the wrong side. On the day of a 2550 breakout or 2440 breakdown, you will realize: It's not that ETH is weak, it's that you always bet on the wrong side before the direction comes out. At 2490, do you dare to add positions? $BTC $ETH $ZEC