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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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目前让原油价格短期下跌的核心因素就是伊朗开始与海湾国家合作委员会(QCC)接触讨论 这个合作委员会包含沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、阿曼与巴林,一旦合作进展顺利,意味着霍尔木兹海峡可以在新秩序下快速恢复原油输出 根据《金融时报》报道中有一个细节——“无论达成何种协议,都是暂时,并且他们能够自由船只通航”,这个要求的背后意味着海湾国家为了能源输出,其实是可以暂时选择性妥协,我认为这个妥协包括利润,也包括与美国的同盟关系 当然,海湾国家抱团对美国其实非常不利,尤其是对美国深度捆绑的盟友国家,例如以色列是最不利的,所以美国最后还是要反对,但是我认为这并不重要 因为按照目前的局势,特朗普或者说美国马上就要面临股债汇三杀,中期选举政治动荡的局面,我认为美国或者特朗普有点自顾不暇 如果内塔尼亚胡无法确保特朗普在中期选举的优势,特朗普翻脸也会很快! 至于原油价格,短期的利好让Brent与WTI价格回落,但是现在还是在交易预期,不能太过乐观,短期来看Brent不回归95,WTI不回归93下方,还是要警惕的!#PPI高于预期,今晚CPI定方向
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Iran's Growth—In this US-Iraq war, we have witnessed a strong and diplomatic "new" Iran
Iran's Growth—In this US-Iraq war, we are witnessing a strong and diplomatically skillful "new" Iran. With the recent uproar of the US-Iran conflict, Iran's strategic goal has become very clear: to turn the arc of resistance from a standalone military confrontation into a tool for economic, military, and diplomatic maneuvering. I believe this is Iran's greatest growth since the old Khamenei. Setting aside whether it will bring long-term stability in the future, at least at this stage, it has worked. I am not advocating for Iran. Rather, Iran's actions have clearly advanced their strategic goals and are clearly more successful: 1. The Strait of Hormuz was initially just a means to threaten and counter the U.S. military, but inevitably offending all Gulf countries and other nations. So Iran implemented a new straits system, not a complete blockade like a madman, but established a new order in the strait. Under this order, if the U.S. manages it, Iran will confront the U.S. military in the straits. If the U.S. does not intervene, it will gradually lose the Middle East's vital energy chokepoint and control over the region The new Iran-Oman Strait Agreement centers on friendly countries in the region, rather than merely showcasing Iran's control over the strait. It has learned diplomatic tactics to unite regional nations. As the US and Iran continue to launch attacks around the strait, on September 10, a large cargo ship from a Qatar-controlled liquefied natural gas company sailed out of the strait for the first time to Pakistan, and two other large cargo ships entered the strait, suspected to be returning to Qatar to wait for loading. On September 9, data from the UAE showed that 10-15 cargo ships enter the strait daily through southern Oman's waters

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