大老师Bunny
大老师Bunny
OKX大师课讲师 宏观交易员 立志做最专业的美股Trader 推特同名
11Following
985followers
Feed
Feed
$xSPCX Earnings Forecast: Bearish, but I prefer to first grind the time value before deciding the direction. (Not AI-generated filler)
This stock increasingly looks like a crypto altcoin to me.
A large number of 0DTE gamblers gather, and the options speculation attribute is very strong, which also makes earnings forecast significantly more difficult.
Currently, I have several judgments:
1. The current price is pinned in the $148–149 range, with a large amount of Sell Put / Sell Call positions profiting today.
2. I believe this earnings report may slightly deviate from market expectations, but not enough to drive a significant stock price increase.
3. If the earnings report does not significantly exceed expectations, I do not think the stock price can directly break upwards. It is more likely to slowly decline, first grinding down the time value of the options expiring on 10/21.
4. After the short-term options expire and the position structure is readjusted, the real direction will emerge.
My final judgment: $SPCX is bearish after earnings, more inclined to first oscillate to consume time value, then look downward for direction.
This stock’s speculative nature is too strong, making forecasting clearly more difficult than typical tech stocks, but I still lean bearish.
Will verify again after earnings.
#OKX US Stock Earnings Season
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
$xNFLX Earnings forecast: bearish bias, focus on $64–65 first. (Non-AI
From current options data, the market is clearly on the defensive.
1. The current IV implies an earnings volatility range of about ±8.44%, corresponding to ±$5.89.
2. Bets on a drop to 60P are not uncommon, but I believe $58 is a level that is hard to break directly.
3. 75C and 80C reflect the market's expectation of increased volatility, and may also be influenced by the price pull of the GEX Wall. However, I think $80 is difficult to break through.
4. Considering the distribution of the GEX Wall, the market is still pricing in downside risk after earnings, with $64–65 being the key area I focus on.
My final judgment: $NFLX is bearish after earnings, with priority on $64–65.
Of course, the final outcome depends on whether the actual earnings significantly exceed expectations.
This time I continue to use options data to verify the forecast and will review after earnings.
#财报观察员：财报季回顾与展望
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Actually, I am not optimistic about this Tesla earnings report.
Looking at the options and PR, it's the same story.
I believe either EPS or revenue will miss expectations.
The Roadster launch grabbed a lot of attention, but the sustainability is poor, with a drop of over 10% from the peak.
Be cautious.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
I am confident there will be a rebound tonight
The market will price in CPI meeting expectations/slightly exceeding expectations
Combined with a rebound during Investor Day
#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
Not feeling much about tonight's NFP
This data should be favorable for “no rate hike in October”
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
9.30 Micron Earnings Forecast $MU
This earnings forecast is extremely challenging.
Since the market opened, no clear direction has emerged.
The following content is the blogger's bold speculation, DYOR, NFA
This is very important, agile trading
Summary: Earnings Beat with Guidance Downgrade
Candlestick trend: Price surges after earnings release, then drops after guidance.
Volatility range is between 1015-1135.
——————————
First, the rebound of SOXX/SMH is noticeably later than the bullish options on MU, which constitutes a sign of Insider Trading.
From this, we judge that the earnings will exceed expectations, and the market may break through 1070 after the earnings release, reaching the Call Wall at 1100.
Ultimately, the top after the earnings Beat may stay between 1100-1150. Judging from IV, 1100-1135 is the limit of this rebound. (The price range difference is small, so do not be too strict about the price range)
However, guidance will see some downgrades due to obstacles in data center construction, and the newly updated Agent has not yet reached Killer level.
Therefore, during the conference call phase, MU's stock price will gradually fall from 1100-1135 down to 1000-1050. The author believes this range can be further refined to between 1015-1050.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
SPCX big pre-market opportunity today
Launch mission at 20:15
I tend to go long
——————————
Core objective this time: Starship's first true entry into Earth orbit and deployment of 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites. The previous 13 flights all followed suborbital trajectories, so this commercial validation is more significant.
$SPCX
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧
Interest rate hikes have landed, and the US, Japan, and South Korea are truly panicking about crude oil
This is also a real "turning point"
China-US, China-Iran, US-Iran peace talks
Are only about solving the crude oil issue and also addressing inflation
———————
The turning point is the key point of this passage
#美联储10月再加息概率破55%
The expectation of a rate hike has already approached 90%, it's almost a done deal, so stop talking about the unrealistic view of a rate cut.
From Trump's standpoint, no problem, a rate hike is something he cannot tolerate, but the market will ultimately price it correctly. No matter how much Warsh shows off, it can't change the fact that the current market needs a rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% is also telling everyone that market risk is too high and the possibility of a recession is too high.
The market will further doubt
Whether your Federal Reserve is truly independent. If it becomes a regulatory tool for Trump, what will happen to the US dollars and dollar assets we hold? Actually, the market is pricing in this risk.
——————————
Some solid points: the rate hike expectation is basically a done deal, but this time the dot plot (which may not appear) and subsequent statements become more important.
What truly drives the market reaction is
Whether this tightening path "has boundaries and credibility" that can pull the Fed's credibility back from the edge of the cliff. This is the core of this trade and the core test of Warsh's ability. It's absolutely not just about whether this rate hike happens or not. A "follow-through with a clear end point" rate hike is more friendly to risk assets than a "hold position but keep the threat" no rate hike. And a rate hike that "opens up an unlimited tightening imagination space" (raising r*, explicitly targeting inflation) is more deadly than any no rate hike.
What can be confirmed
Certainty has the greatest leverage effect on duration assets
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
