恐龙博士🦖🦖🦖
恐龙博士🦖🦖🦖
大厂算法工程师 Weex alpha最佳人气奖 okx aiagent第5+Bg aiagent第4
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Sun Ge's projects may not always be worth playing, but every time Sun Ge speaks, you really need to listen carefully, study carefully, and savor it thoroughly. I strongly agree with most of his views!!!
vct
Full latest in-depth interview with Sun Yuchen: Bearish on BTC, bearish on the Nasdaq, neutral on ETH, bullish on AI applications, not playing A-shares... Seriously shared many market views and trading positions, worth a look
Bearish on BTC. Believes Bitcoin faces significant threats from AI and quantum computing and is unlikely to come out unscathed; the market underestimates the potential impact of these risks on BTC. Quantum resistance upgrades can only save "those willing to save themselves," and hard forks freezing old coins are almost impossible to reach consensus on under Bitcoin's decentralization. However, his BTC is a base position and he has not reduced it during the past year's decline.
Currently holding only 20% ETH position, watching. Last year, he reduced 80-90% of ETH between 3600–4000 (in Nov–Dec last year, the logic for reduction was the "second peak relying only on Tom Lee" at 4800), and has not bought back yet. During ETH reduction, he increased allocation in US stocks.
Slightly bearish on the Nasdaq mid-term, bearish but has not shorted yet. Believes capital concentration is too severe; hardware stocks are hyped as software stocks, and if the AI financing cycle fails, everything fails. US Treasuries are the "parent" of all capital; now equity "children" are draining it. Interest rates must be high to attract money, but if too high, money will flow back. Short-term chip oversupply is possible, like the fiber optics in 2000.
Most bullish on AI applications, especially AI health management (data collection → mining → decision-making, no need to wait until illness to go to hospital). Least bullish on storage and optical modules. An anchor: the market cap ceiling of a single company is about half of US Treasuries, so Nvidia can at most quadruple again, while application layer opportunities to quadruple or more are abundant. Themes will differentiate next year and the year after.
The RMB will strengthen; the US Treasury crisis is overhyped. As long as the US holds ultimate control over AI (chips, storage, models), there will be no shortage of buyers for US Treasuries. "Sun Wukong cannot jump out of the palm of the Buddha."
Basically no A-share positions but will do some research. Regarding the A-share optical module rally, his explanation is that this direction can connect to US AI investment demand, and Chinese companies already have some manufacturing and industrial layout, so capital concentration is easy to form. He is bearish on all old economy assets (like liquor) and actively embraces new economy assets.
Hyperliquid is an important new development in this cycle. Believes US stock perpetual contracts have opened new product space for the entire industry; whether DEX can squeeze out CEX depends on whether US regulation grants Uniswap-style exemptions.
RWA space is very large. TRON will also vigorously promote US stocks on-chain in November, with the same logic as USDT: providing the third world an entry to allocate dollar assets.
Recommended reading list: Ayn Rand's "The Fountainhead," Wang Xiaobo's "Golden Age," Sun Xue @justinsuntron @sunyuchentron
For the Tesla earnings report question, I choose Yes
My thinking is that this quarter's automotive business has a sales foundation, and energy storage is also promising. There is a chance for some positive surprises in the report.
From the data already released, about 486,500 vehicles were delivered in Q3, and energy storage deployment was 13.7 GWh. Compared to about 480,100 vehicles and 13.5 GWh in Q2, these are slight increases—not a sudden breakout, but at least it gives me some optimistic confidence.
I am more focused on automotive gross margin, profit contribution from the energy storage business, and whether R&D and operating expenses have significantly eaten into the incremental gains.
I choose Yes, betting that the profit side can deliver a bit more. This judgment still needs to be verified by the earnings report; relying solely on delivery growth definitely can’t confirm a correct answer in advance.
Robotaxi, FSD, and robots are hot topics.
However, an earnings beat and a stock price increase after the report are two different things. The stock price also depends on prior pricing and subsequent guidance. This time, I’m only answering the question in the chart and won’t casually conclude on the stock price.
Tesla plans to release its earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 21. Let’s see if this Yes passes the test then. Earnings schedule
Also, teachers can check out my community:
@okxchinese #OKX美股财报季 @misaENFP
OKX中文
Several companies' earnings reports are being released one after another. Who can predict correctly all the way and win in the end?
"Earnings Report Champion" registration is now open!
1/ Winning Streak Grand Prize: Participate in all earnings season predictions, advance by answering correctly, eliminated if wrong or unanswered, the final winner takes 10,000 USDT.
2/ Post & Win Lottery: Use #OKX美股财报季 RT + share one earnings discussion post on the community, every Friday 10 winners will be drawn to receive 100U worth of corresponding xStocks tokens.
Register now👇
For the Tesla earnings report question, I choose Yes
My thinking is that this quarter's automotive business has a sales foundation, and energy storage is also promising. There is a chance for some positive surprises in the report.
The data already released shows about 486,500 vehicles delivered in Q3 and 13.7 GWh of energy storage deployed. Compared to about 480,100 vehicles and 13.5 GWh in Q2, these are slight increases—not a sudden surge, but at least it gives me some optimistic confidence.
I am more focused on the automotive gross margin, the profit contribution from the energy storage business, and whether R&D and operating expenses have significantly eaten into the growth.
I choose Yes, betting that the profit side can deliver a bit more. This judgment still needs to be verified by the earnings report; relying solely on delivery growth definitely can’t confirm a correct answer in advance.
Robotaxi, FSD, and robots are hot topics.
However, an earnings beat and a stock price increase after the report are two different things. The stock price also depends on prior pricing and subsequent guidance. This time, I’m only answering the question in the chart and won’t casually conclude on the stock price.
Tesla plans to release its earnings after the US market closes on October 21. Let’s see if this Yes vote passes then. Earnings schedule
@okxchinese #OKX美股财报季
The third season has arrived. After a careful look, the third season mainly focuses on financial reports|
The first season was the World Cup (the least competitive)
The second season was games and sports (the most competitive)
In the first two seasons, the doctor earned over 500U, mostly by freeloading. The second season was too competitive, so there was no time to keep an eye on it, just played a bit on the side. The third season is especially suitable for teachers who love trading; it's not competitive, it's fun, and you can also earn points by browsing the planet!
Really wish I had multiple accounts to aggressively farm OKX hahaha
@misaENFP @okxchinese @star_okx
你的爱播Misa
Our Prophet S3 is officially here!
Misa is tapping the blackboard, let's highlight the key points together.
Many people don't have the habit of reading the manual, so they can't play well. Spend a little time to finish reading this article, and you'll get twice the result with half the effort~
🏆 Total prize pool $250,000
📅 Event lasts until November 15th 00:00
First, let's talk about what's slightly different this time compared to before:
This time, no manual registration is needed; eligible users will be automatically enrolled, and Welcome XP will be credited automatically.
At the same time, we've added an independent weekly leaderboard for earnings season and ExchangeOS on-chain spot and perpetual experience tasks.
GW2 and GW3 will also distinguish between PnL leaderboard and PnL% leaderboard, so this time it's not just about who has more XP, but more importantly how to use XP well to generate positive returns.
🌟 How to participate this season?
Open the latest OKX App and go to Planet - Outcomes
Eligible new users will receive 200 XP, and existing users will get random Welcome XP. It may take some time to arrive; just check the XP icon at the top right or the Earn XP page~
XP is free event points, no real money investment is required, and it cannot be purchased, transferred, or withdrawn. After the season ends, it will be handled uniformly according to the rules.
🌟 How are rewards distributed?
There are several sets of leaderboards this season, calculated and rewarded separately:
Season main leaderboard: Top 5,000 by PnL, prize pool $60,000
GW1: Top 5,000 by PnL, prize pool $30,000
GW2: Top 3,000 by PnL and top 100 by PnL%, prize pool $30,000
GW3: Top 3,000 by PnL and top 100 by PnL%, prize pool $30,000
Earnings season W1–W4: Weekly independent PnL leaderboard, top 3,000 each week, weekly prize pool $25,000
GW1 runs from October 15th 10:00 to October 22nd 10:00; GW2 and GW3 switch every Thursday at 10:00.
Note: XP earned from tasks is your ammunition, but the leaderboard core looks at trading PnL. External inflows like task XP and referral XP will be deducted when calculating PnL.
Simply put, having more XP does not guarantee a high ranking; positive returns are still required. PnL not greater than 0 cannot earn corresponding leaderboard rewards.
🌟 What are we playing this week?
1. Will Tesla's earnings this quarter exceed expectations?
Expected settlement: October 22nd 04:05
Earnings date, fiscal quarter, and consensus data will be verified again before launch according to company IR.
2. Midterm elections: Which party will control the House of Representatives?
Expected determination: November 4th 20:00
Settlement time may be delayed if official certification is used.
3. Midterm elections: Which party will control the Senate?
Expected determination: November 4th 20:00
Control in case of a tie and independent senators' caucus affiliation will be judged according to final market rules.
4. Midterm elections: Control combination of both chambers
Expected determination: November 4th 20:00
Including Republican sweep, Democratic sweep, Republican control of House and Democratic control of Senate, and the opposite combination.
5. Will Netflix's earnings this quarter exceed expectations?
Expected settlement: October 21st 04:05
6. How many seats will Republicans win in the House?
Expected determination: November 4th 20:00
Settlement may be delayed awaiting official certification.
7. How many seats will Republicans win in the Senate?
Expected determination: November 4th 20:00
Settlement may be delayed if runoffs or caucus affiliations are not confirmed.
8. Brazil presidential election: Who will win?
Expected determination: October 26th 10:00
Based on the second-round election results on October 25th.
9. China's GDP: What is the year-on-year growth range for Q3?
Expected settlement: October 19th 10:00
🌟 How to earn more XP?
One-time tasks:
New user Welcome XP: 200 XP
Eligible new user first deposit: 200 XP
Complete eligible first trade: 200 XP
Invite valid new users: 300 XP each, up to 5 counted this season
🌟 Daily tasks:
Accumulate at least 1 minute reading on Planet; remember to scroll the page, no slacking!
Complete follow, like, or share
Publish posts with at least 50 words, include position cards, and pass review
If XP is below 100 and account assets reach 100 USDT equivalent, try to claim daily Refuel random XP
Complete ExchangeOS daily spot or perpetual tasks and try to maintain 3, 5, or 7 consecutive days without interruption
Earnings season also has separate popular topic posting tasks. Posts need to include earnings season topics, corresponding spot or contract position cards, and pass review. Up to 30 extra XP can be earned daily.
🤩 Misa's XP tips
1. Open the Earn XP page daily first to see the tasks for the day. Tasks reset at 00:00 daily; progress does not carry over.
2. Reading tasks require scrolling content to count as valid, not just opening the page for a minute.
3. When posting, try to meet two conditions at once: at least 50 words and include position cards, plus earnings season designated topics and corresponding position cards. If both ordinary position posting and earnings season popular topic requirements are met, rewards for both tasks can be granted.
4. Orbit ordinary daily tasks and earnings season posting tasks can stack; when eligible, up to 60 XP can be earned daily, but actual rewards are random and subject to weekly limits on task cards.
5. Invitations must use the exclusive invitation link in the event. Ordinary invitation links may not be correctly attributed. Friends must complete registration, join the event, and meet eligible first deposit to count as valid invitations.
6. When XP is close to 100, don't forget to check Refuel. If asset and account conditions are met, you can replenish once daily.
7. Earnings season designated events have independent weekly leaderboards and may also enter corresponding regular Gameweek leaderboards. When rules allow, the same performance can participate in two leaderboards.
8. Don't do high-leverage operations just for task XP. Understand the rules first and decide whether to proceed; don't disrupt your rhythm for small tasks.
🤓 Final reminder:
Multi-accounting, volume wash, self-trading, manipulating low liquidity markets, or using scripts for arbitrage are prohibited. Having little XP is not scary, but if your account is banned, you can't participate anymore~
OKX Planet Prophet S3, see you on Misa's leaderboard 🖤
This round of pullback for $BTC might test around 80,000, while $ETH is very likely to test down near 2,200. Currently, the whole market is on standby; bottom-fishing is not urgent.
Why do I think the decline hasn't stopped yet? Simply breaking it down into 3 dimensions:
1. Macro selling pressure and CPI rebound (Macro / Rates): The recently released CPI data rose year-over-year (3.7%), showing inflation stickiness is more stubborn than expected. The Fed just resumed rate hikes.
2. Market microstructure: From the order book and liquidation heatmap, although a batch of high-leverage longs was washed out this morning, the CEX depth (bid side) has shrunk severely, and buying interest is extremely weak. After breaking below 84k and 2600, the original strong support has directly turned into strong resistance.
3. Chip and ETH/BTC rate structure: The ETH/BTC rate continues to seek a bottom, with on-chain staking and DeFi liquidation lines still concentrated below (especially in the 2200–2300 range). When sentiment is extremely fragile, liquidity often "seeks liquidation" downward, and only after completely blowing through the liquidation line can a true clearing be considered.
Save your bullets for confirmation signals; it's not too late to act after testing the 80k / 2200 area or after the market forms a clear double bottom structure.
#Strategy财报前瞻：BTC账面收益大幅反弹
This round of pullback for $BTC might test 80,000, while $ETH is very likely to test around 2,200 downward. Currently, the whole market is on standby; bottom-fishing is not urgent.
Why do I think the decline hasn't stopped yet? Simply break it down into 3 dimensions:
1. Macro selling pressure and CPI rebound (Macro / Rates): The recently released CPI data rose year-over-year (3.7%), showing inflation stickiness more stubborn than expected. The Fed just resumed rate hikes, and market expectations for further hikes before year-end have sharply increased. Combined with the US government wallet sell-off rumors draining liquidity, traditional macro funds' risk appetite has dropped significantly. The macro environment fundamentally does not support a V-shaped recovery.
2. Market microstructure: From the Order Book and liquidation heatmap, although a batch of high-leverage longs was flushed out this morning, the CEX depth (Bid Side) has shrunk severely, and buying interest is extremely weak. After breaking below 84k and 2600, the original strong support has directly turned into strong resistance. Without seeing volume contraction at the bottom or divergence signals, this liquidity vacuum market is prone to a secondary dip.
3. Positioning and ETH/BTC rate structure: The ETH/BTC rate continues to seek a bottom, with on-chain staking and DeFi liquidation lines still concentrated below (especially in the 2200–2300 range). When sentiment is extremely fragile, liquidity often "seeks liquidation" downward, and only after the liquidation lines are completely blown out can a true clearing be considered.
Save your bullets for confirmation signals. It's not too late to act after testing the 80k / 2200 area or when the market forms a clear double bottom structure.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #Quant #MacroAnalysis
Reviewing ETH these days, I first shorted around 2670, then reversed to go long around 2500, and now I'm preparing to take profits.
When I opened the short at 2670, it was mainly because after dropping from a high point, it hadn't managed to reverse the trend; each rebound peak was lower than the last. At that time, I felt that around 2670 was more like a pullback rather than a direct strong rebound, so I followed the downtrend and shorted.
Later, it dropped to a low of 2405. When it reached this point, I started to consider whether to keep holding the short: after a sharp drop, chasing further down didn't seem to have good odds. Then the price returned to around 2500, and I saw it pull back and the lows started to rise, so I closed the short and reversed to go long around 2500.
Now ETH is around 2570, and on the 4-hour chart, it has climbed back above MA5, MA10, and MA20, showing short-term strength compared to the past few days. But the hourly Bollinger upper band is around 2578, and the 24-hour high is roughly at the same level, so it has hit immediate resistance. I feel this position is unstable, so I exited first.
Looking ahead:
On Wednesday, the US September CPI will be released. I'll wait for the data to see how the market moves. Volatility might be relatively high before and after the data.
Can I just go all in at once?
No, this position can't handle that.
Really can't go full position?
Better to earn less than to break the trading rules.
Aren't you afraid of missing out on the market?
I am, but I'm more afraid of heavy positions getting stopped out.
What about the remaining opportunities?
First, execute this trade according to plan, then wait for chances in the rest of the market.
Know when to enter and how much to position.
With rules in place, the trading path can go far, and trades won't feel painful.
#不烧心
