星期天-77
星期天-77
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The timeline for $UNI launching CME futures is as follows:
September 22 Announcement: UNI surged about 15% in one day, breaking above $10
October 18 Eve of launch: lowest at 6.81, more than 30% retracement from announcement day
October 19 Launch: became the first DeFi protocol token futures on CME
Currently at 7.49, about 10.6% higher than the low point
The positive news was already priced in on the announcement day; the launch itself didn't bring any additional story.
$ZEC These past two days, I've really been thrilled.
It was still at 1049 early Monday morning, and I was staring at the screen wondering whether to sell. But in less than two days, it surged straight to 1296, rising by almost a quarter. Last night, each bullish candle was stronger than the last; watching it got me a bit excited.
Now it's at 1260, with 1300 just above.
Everyone's asking: can it get even more aggressive?
Honestly, I can't say. I've seen this coin's temperament before — last week it could drop eight or nine percent in a day, and this week it can rebound a big chunk in a day. If you ask if it can surge again, no problem; the previous high of 1388 was on October 6, and above that is 1650 from September. If you ask if it will pull back, that's fine too — it just rallied over 20%, and who doesn't have some profit-taking pressure?
The levels I'm watching: 1300 above is a psychological barrier; only holding above it counts as a real breakout. Around 1200 below is the recent starting point of the rally; holding that means it's healthy.
But I also know this kind of level makes people itchy. The stronger the rally, the more I want to chase, but usually when I chase in, that's when it takes a breather.
Today, I won't chase or sell; I'll just watch.
Did you get in at 1260, or are you waiting for a pullback?
$SOL this week has been like walking down stairs step by step.
Last week it was still at 111, now it's 104. After surging to 108.67 on Wednesday, every rebound has been a bit lower than the last, with the highs getting shorter. On Sunday night it directly dipped to 100.43, and I thought to myself, it's over, it's going to break below 100.
But there were buyers above 100.
On Monday it pulled back to 106, and I just thought "Alright, alright," but this afternoon it slowly slid back to 104. At this position now, it's neither going up nor down, like someone is pulling it along.
What troubles me most is the 100 to 101 range. It has pierced through this area twice this week, and both times it bounced back. You might say this is support, but I don't dare to believe it. Support is support only if it holds; if it doesn't, it's just a number. I've paid a lot of tuition fees on this.
Honestly, my attitude towards SOL is very complicated right now. I don't want to chase because every rebound fails to hold. I don't want to cut because it seems like someone is waiting below 100. So I'm holding it half-alive, checking it three to five times a day, then closing it after looking.
Sometimes I wonder if I'm the only one this tired.
It didn't move today, and most likely won't move tomorrow either.
Are you placing orders below 100, or waiting for it to break first?
$UNI from last night to today played out a classic "scary but hard to hate" scenario.
Starting Sunday night around 9 or 10 PM, it slid down from 7.3 all the way to 6.8, touching 6.806 at 4 AM. Before I went to sleep, I glanced at it and thought, "It's over, it's going to break 7 again, no sleep tonight."
But what happened?
Before dawn, it climbed back up on its own. It kept rising until the afternoon, reaching a high of 7.486, nearly a 10% increase from the low. When I woke up this morning, I thought, wow, nothing happened, the price is even higher than before I went to bed.
Now it's at 7.35, pulling back a bit.
I realized I have a very annoying pattern: the more I want to buy in, the more it drops; by the time I hesitate and decide, it bounces back. Same this time — when it was at 6.8, I almost put my hand in, then pulled back. Now looking at 7.35, I want to chase but feel reluctant; if I don't, I'm afraid it will rise again.
What's interesting is the contract positions: they dropped steadily when the price fell, then slowly climbed back as the price rose. It feels like washing out one group and letting another group in. I'm not sure, just a feeling.
Last week I was complaining that UNI couldn't rally, and today I got proven wrong. But honestly, compared to the previous grinding, I still don't dare to take this rise seriously.
I'm not making any moves now, just watching.
Did any of you make a move around 6.8 last night? Tell me, I want to know if anyone caught it. #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？
$ZEC has been making my heart race again these past couple of days.
On Monday early morning, it dropped all the way down to 1048. I was staring at the screen wondering if it would fall below 1000. But within a few hours, it was pulled back up to 1167, rebounding eleven percent. This coin’s temperament is just like that—daily swings of ten percent up or down are normal.
Now everyone is asking: can it break out? How high can it go?
Honestly, I don’t dare to call a target price. Look, it surged to 1650 in September, and now it’s nearly 30% lower than that. Some say this round of decline is due to excessive leverage, others worry about AI cracking encryption. But the positives for privacy coins and Grayscale’s ZEC spot ETF haven’t disappeared.
My own rough watch zones are: below 1100 to 1125, if it breaks that, then look at 1000. Above, 1200 to 1300 is a resistance zone, with 1285 being the recent high from a few days ago. Only if it can hold above 1300 can it be considered a true breakout. If it can’t hold, it will keep grinding within the range.
If you ask whether I’m bullish or bearish, I can only say: both sides have their reasons, and I don’t dare to take heavy positions on either side.
This kind of coin can turn someone from "I’m a genius" to "I’m a newbie" in just one day.
Right now, I’m just watching, neither chasing nor cutting.
Do you think $ZEC can hold above 1300 this time? Share your reasons—I want to hear different perspectives.
I was a bit stunned when I opened the daily chart on Monday morning.
$BTC at 82,489, $ETH at 2,426, both slightly up, looking pretty calm. But when I zoomed out on the chart, I realized we've been on a full roller coaster ride for over a month.
BTC surged from 62,685 all the way to 87,374, up nearly 40%. ETH was even more aggressive, jumping from 1,869 to 2,807, up 50%. At that time, if anyone said "the bull is back," I would have believed it.
Then it started to slowly give back gains.
Now BTC has retreated about 5.6% from its high, ETH nearly 14%. See, the bigger the rise, the bigger the fall; ETH has always had this temperament. When the big guy catches a cold, it gets a fever.
The most frustrating part is this kind of decline—it’s not a crash, it’s a grind. One small red candle today, one small green candle tomorrow, a lower wick pokes down then pulls back. You want to sell, but it hasn’t dropped much. You want to buy more, but you don’t know where the bottom is.
Last week I got scared twice by CPI and PPI data, now I get a bit reactive to any data day.
Tonight the US stock market is opening again. Last Friday, semiconductors fell for eight consecutive days; if Monday continues that trend, the crypto market will probably shake too.
I haven’t moved my holdings, just watching.
Honestly, my biggest feeling now is: the market hasn’t crashed, but people are tired.
Do you think this is a consolidation after the rise, or a shakeout before another surge?
$ZEC's rebound this time didn't even reach the upper Bollinger band at 1183 before turning down, with each high lower than the last.
From 1348.89 downward, each rebound's high was around 1285, 1250, and 1183, progressively lower. This rebound starting near 1130 lost momentum after rising above the Bollinger middle band at 1157.95, currently priced at 1148, falling back below the middle band. Most of this gain has already been given back.
RSI(6) dropped to 30.12, approaching short-term oversold. Open interest remains steady around 455.71K without significant increase, indicating this decline is not driven by new money entering but more like profit-taking from the rebound funds.
My judgment: weak consolidation, bearish bias. The first support is the lower Bollinger band at 1132.95 and the low near 1130 on 10/17; if these don't hold, the previous low at 1070.32 is likely to be retested. On the upside, as long as it doesn't reclaim 1157.95, all rebounds are just technical corrections, not a sign of strength. With RSI near oversold, a short-term rebound is possible but limited to the range of 1158 to 1183.
U.S. stock markets are closed over the weekend, but my mind hasn't rested at all this weekend.
First, let's look at last night's close: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell another 3.8%, marking its eighth consecutive trading day of decline. Since October 6, it has dropped a total of 15.7%, the longest losing streak since 2008. The Nasdaq fell 2.15% yesterday, down 4.5% for the week.
Memory stocks continue to lead the decline: SK Hynix ADR dropped 6.6%, Sandisk fell 6.9%, and Micron declined 5.6%. Nvidia held up relatively well; Jensen Huang said AI chip demand is strong, but since October 6, it has also retraced about 10%.
The most outrageous is over in South Korea: SK Hynix's Korean stock price fell 31.5% over seven trading days from October 6 to 15.
Wow, with such a drop, it's really other people's accounts bleeding while mine is just watching.
Yesterday Goldman Sachs came out saying the market has overestimated the threat from Changxin, and that SK Hynix and Samsung now have a decent risk-reward profile. But the stock prices ignored that. When I read it, I thought: I wish they had said that a week earlier.
With U.S. markets closed, I actually feel more at ease. At least for these two days, I don't have to decide whether to bottom-fish or not.
Next week there's the end-of-month FOMC and a bunch of earnings reports—probably another tough battle.
I don't dare to guess; I've already learned my lesson about bottom-fishing.
Are you waiting for Monday's open, or have you already made up your mind?
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
$SNDK $MU $SKHY
$ETH bounced back from 2318 to 2458, the candlestick looks like a reversal, but ETF funds are running out.
In the past two trading days, nearly $190 million net outflow from the US spot ETH ETF, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing 44.4 million.
What is happening on-chain at the same time?
A giant whale has sold 1601 BTC over 5 consecutive days, converting it into 132 million USDC, and then bought 53,095 ETH.
On one side, ETF holders are reducing exposure, while on-chain large funds are rotating positions.
The rebound elasticity of ETH/BTC has always been stronger—bouncing 5.5% from the low compared to BTC's 2.9%—but this time the rebound is driven by position rotation and short covering, not incremental institutional entry.
The candlestick is repairing, but the capital structure has not yet shifted. In sectors, AI, DePIN, and Layer2 have pulses, but incremental confirmation is needed.
Bitcoin fell below 80,000, and this time it's not just a matter for the crypto circle.
AI stocks evaporated over one trillion dollars in four trading days,
The Nasdaq once dropped 1.8%.
Bitcoin was dragged down.
24-hour liquidation was 937 million, with long positions accounting for 787 million.
Then it pulled back to 82,000 on its own.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 $BTC
