币圈猎人.007
币圈猎人.007
全球热点推演币圈走势。 擅长宏观分析 + 市场情绪判断。 因为热爱！所以专业。 关注我，可能我的文章某条信息，能帮到你！ 另外，呃！我不是AI机器人！我不是AI机器人！我不是AI机器人！
5Following
107followers
Feed
Feed
$BTC has been strongly oscillating upwards since September 29, with each pullback low higher than the previous one. However, today a bearish candle pulled the price back into the consolidation zone before the National Day holiday.
Although this drop came fiercely, bulls don't need to be too pessimistic because Bitcoin has closed lower for three consecutive days, but the total drop is only about $3000, which is not considered a deep correction.
Currently, it's just a normal pullback; the bullish structure is still intact.
But in the short term, there might be further pullbacks.
Strong support lies between 83100 and 82800, and this big wall is probably hard to break. So setting stop-loss above this range is relatively safe for the short term.
It depends on how the 4-hour candlestick closes next.
If it pulls back above 84500, bulls will be safer.
But if the price continues to drop, there could be further liquidation of long positions, so be prepared to adjust your positions.
The above is just a personal opinion for reference only!
$BTC's recent drop! Quite severe! Nearly $2000 down in one hour! Oversold, is it time to bottom-fish?
No, no, no!
I think it's still too early to bottom-fish now! Because based on one data point, I believe the reasoning is not sufficient.
BTC OI: 29.91K!
With the price plummeting, normally the OI should also drop accordingly! But overall it hasn't fallen much, indicating that leveraged funds haven't been cleared out yet.
So, judging oversold conditions and bottom-fishing purely based on RSI at this position, I think the argument is somewhat unconvincing.
The lower boundary at 83,500 is the Donchian lower band, which will form a strong support here. If this level holds and the price rises above 84,000, with OI declining simultaneously, that would be my favorite structural change, because in that case, this round of decline is just short covering.
However, if it breaks below 83,500 and OI does not decrease, that is a dangerous signal! I really do not recommend bottom-fishing then, because new OI entries are likely shorts, which can easily lead to a second liquidation.
Now it depends on how 83,500 is confirmed! If it holds, watch OI changes; if it doesn't, watch volume.
If there is a volume-driven drop, then look further down to the strong support previously formed at 82,800.
If that level is also broken, it is very likely to enter a deep retracement phase, with breaking 80,000 being a high probability. After all, there are too many long positions with profits, and for the market to rise further, they will become a significant resistance!
It's a simple reality: a large number of long profit-takers, selling to take profits once, and shorts selling again! To stabilize the price, double the capital is needed to absorb the selling. Therefore, a deep retracement that washes out many profit positions and raises the average holding cost is more conducive to the price breaking upward to higher levels again!
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!
Brothers! This time it might really have changed, $BTC is dropping with high volume! It broke the support that was lingering for the past few days, and the OI hasn't dropped much!
This is a key signal. Normally, such a big drop would trigger a large number of long positions to be liquidated, causing OI to drop significantly, but I just checked, and the OI still holds at 29.93k!
This indicates that during the sideways movement and breakout over the past two days, OI has been rising, and most of the new positions are likely shorts. Now the shorts have temporarily taken control.
The biggest risk still comes from the spot market! If the price falls further, it may trigger further heavy selling in the spot market, because the rise over the past two months was mainly driven by ETF capital inflows.
The current ETF capital is very much like what we often call "smart money" in stocks! Buying low and selling high, very flexible in adjusting positions! They run at the slightest sign of trouble, and their volume is large!
Therefore, I think at this time, we still need to closely monitor the flow of ETF funds. If they all collectively flow out, then shorting in the short term is safer!
Because the market has already told us in the past two months! News has lost the pricing power over Bitcoin; the pricing power is now with the capital! So focusing on capital flow is key to trading!
Support below is 83100-82800.
New resistance above is 84500.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!"
$BTC after several days of consolidation, Bitcoin's breakout to a local new high ultimately failed! Now the price has pulled back, triggering a large number of long position take-profits and liquidations, and the price is likely to have further downside room.
Why do I make this judgment?
Because since September 29, although Bitcoin has surged many times but failed to break the previous high and then pulled back, during the pullback process, it is clearly visible that a large amount of supporting funds have been holding the price, with price fluctuating and oscillating downward.
The recent drop shows signs of a direct dump, indicating that some funds are taking profits and fleeing or reallocating Bitcoin assets, and the supports formed in the past few days have almost all been broken. The bears are quite strong, so it depends on whether the early support range of 82800-83100 can hold.
If it doesn't hold, there is a high probability of further downside space opening up, and in the short term, I expect to see around 81400.
After such a rapid decline, a large number of longs have been liquidated. Beware of a quick rebound to cover shorts. I suggest not rushing to bottom-fish; wait until it stabilizes before making moves.
The above is just my personal opinion!
$BTC price is slowly rising, but the volume is insufficient. Last night, late at night, Bitcoin price broke through 86900, but the trading volume for the whole day was not high!
Although we are currently in a bull market, when it comes to trading volume, it doesn't look like a bull market at all.
The monthly trading volume has sharply declined since April this year. Although the price has risen now, the trading volume is still not ideal!
This indicates that the liquidity of this bull market is not very good.
It is even worse than the trading volume during the bear market!
Institutional big players are locking up and holding chips, waiting for other institutions to push the price up. The current price is mainly dominated by ETFs and treasury companies focused on strategic intentions; others are mostly just riding along.
The higher the price goes, the greater the risk for institutions and ETFs entering later, because there is a possibility of short-term holding the bag.
From previous trends where negative news caused price increases and positive news caused price drops, the news no longer holds the pricing power for Bitcoin.
The current pricing power lies in the capital. If the capital cannot increase sufficiently, it will be difficult to support the pressure from the unlocking of trapped positions above!
According to relevant statistics, a large number of investors are looking for break-even points above 88000, and unlocking is imminent!
Therefore, there is a risk of a short-term pullback.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
$BTC Damn! I've been watching it closely for two days, and it kept consolidating sideways slowly. Just when I was losing patience, it suddenly broke upwards late at night!
Yesterday I expressed many times that the market is almost entirely in a bullish trend. Although there is still significant resistance above, the overall bullish market structure has not been broken.
Even though it's a bullish market now and the price has risen above 86500, with the possibility of forming a sideways consolidation, I still maintain my original view that the upside is limited.
The reason is that Bitcoin's price has not had a deep pullback since the lowest point, and the profit-taking positions are huge.
Above 88000 is the area where the trapped positions from last year's bull market start to concentrate.
There is heavy selling pressure above 77000, with trapped positions beginning to unload.
Since last week, ETFs have had inflows and outflows, with a net increase of only about 50 million USD, so incremental funds are insufficient.
With many big obstacles weighing down, the current Bitcoin market still lacks the motivation for a continued big rally.
I still believe it can rise in the short term, but very limited.
Always be prepared for the risk of a pullback.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额
$BTC Bitcoin has twice come close to breaking new highs, perhaps this position on the chart is exerting pressure on it!
I just checked the K-line trends at various levels, and as I was about to summarize, I found a particularly interesting detail.
That is, on the monthly K-line level, the Bollinger Band middle track price was around 87300 in September. In October, the price is around 87360.
The Bollinger middle track price has always been the dividing line between bulls and bears, and the monthly Bollinger middle track is even more critical for long-term trends.
Last month, the coin price broke through the middle track but soon lost it and fell back below the middle track. Last night, the coin price also experienced a rise but fell short of the middle track, never breaking through.
The fact that large selling pressure appeared twice coincidentally at this position indicates that either bearish or bullish funds are pressing the price here, and it is generally believed that the price cannot go higher.
Therefore, if the price approaches this position again, I think the effect will basically be similar to the previous two times.
Not only might the indicator at this point attract bearish suppression, but the dense cost zone of trapped positions above is also one of the factors that deter bulls. Moreover, the price has been rising continuously without a deep pullback or shakeout, with too many bullish profit-taking positions. Many factors are unfavorable for the price to break through to a higher level.
I believe it will be difficult to break through this position in the short term. Even if it does, it is likely to be a false breakout mainly for testing.
Monthly Bollinger middle track price 87360, previous high 87600, dense trapped position cost zone 88000-89000, the lowest price in previous months rose by 50%, just around 87000. Many data points lie ahead and need to be digested. Even if this position breaks through, it will be hard to hold in the short term.
But after calculating, there is only about a 2% space above before reaching this difficult-to-break point, which may not satisfy profit expectations. So, according to my trading habits, I would not chase it.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!
Understanding these $BTC price points will help you know why the selling pressure was so heavy after the price surged to 87,000.
Here is a set of data; once you understand it, you'll know why this happened.
In the spot market:
In the past 6-12 months, the average trading price was 88,943, accounting for 17.12% of total circulation. In the 12-18 month range, the average trading price was 109,495, accounting for 29.2% of total circulation. In the 18-24 month range, the average trading price was 88,416, accounting for 6.09% of total circulation!
That means, during the above periods, trades with costs above 88,000 accounted for 50% of total circulation.
Some positions may have lowered their costs in recent months through averaging down, so 87,000 might have already touched the cost zone of trapped holders in advance.
Therefore, as soon as the price hits 87,000, it triggers massive selling pressure.
Because there are so many trapped holders above, the real question is: where will the market find such huge funds to absorb these funds that could escape as soon as they break even?
This is a very realistic problem! Those who hype a short-term breakthrough to 100,000—are they really spending money to buy in? Or are they just hyping without action, all talk and no practice?
I believe the uptrend may not end that quickly.
But the upside is limited, and a sharp correction could happen at any time.
Upward, I only see around 87,000.
Downward, 82,800 is the first support level, with a certain chance of breaking below 80,000.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!
Saylor hinted once again that he is going to buy more Bitcoin! Whenever this guy speaks, the market gets excited! This shows how much influence he has on the market!
The more he holds, the greater his impact on the crypto space, and every move he makes can affect Bitcoin's price trend!
And at the current price level, he is still accumulating, which indeed boosts market confidence.
However, I want to remind you not to blindly follow his moves! After all, in the last bull market, he bought from just over 10,000 up to 126,000, but still got stuck, kept averaging down, and was trapped until just these past two months when he started to break even.
So, his accumulation of Bitcoin is completely different from ours; we are not playing the same game at all!
We are chasing volatility arbitrage.
He is focused on asset allocation; as long as the company can keep raising funds, the wheel keeps rolling.
Years from now, if Bitcoin's asset market value surpasses the stock market's, his strategy will have won!
The above is just a personal opinion for reference only!
$BTC
