戈多 Godot

前 Manta Network 首席研究员，专注美股期权和基本面。

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The earnings report clearly "exceeded expectations," yet the stock price fell. Whose expectations were actually exceeded? Recently, Messi has consulted many mentors: How should we view and find opportunities in the upcoming U.S. earnings season? Friends who usually trade BTC and ETH are familiar with capital, sentiment, and macro factors. But during the U.S. earnings season, you also need to understand the report companies deliver. To find the key, first clarify these points 👇 1️⃣ What exactly does an earnings report express? A quarterly earnings report can be understood as a company’s performance report card, but it’s not just about how much money was made. ▫️ Income Statement: How much revenue was earned, how much was spent, and the final profit. ▫️ Balance Sheet: What the company owns and owes. ▫️ Cash Flow Statement: Where the cash actually came from and where it was spent. Why look at them separately? Because sold goods might not have been paid for yet, and buying equipment or building factories also consumes cash. Profit on the books and cash in hand are not the same. When a company releases results, it may also provide guidance for the next quarter or the full year. During earnings calls, analysts will ask: Where is growth coming from? Why did costs change? How long will these changes last? 2️⃣ What are institutions busy with once earnings are released? Fundamental analysts usually compare the results to previous forecasts and break down where differences come from: ▫️ Revenue growth: Is it from selling more or raising prices? ▫️ Profit growth: Is it from core business improvement or one-time gains? ▫️ Can this quarter’s good performance be sustained? Fundamental research institutions use this information to update future profit, cash flow forecasts, and valuations. Macro factors also play a role: interest rates affect financing costs, consumption affects demand, and exchange rates affect overseas income. Even if company profits don’t change, market valuations may shift. So a good quarter doesn’t necessarily mean future expectations improve, nor does it guarantee the stock price will rise. 3️⃣ Different companies have different focuses ▫️ Health insurance companies look at how much premium income is used for medical expenses; ▫️ Cloud businesses focus on balancing growth and profit margins; ▫️ Retail companies watch sales, inventory, and discounts; ▫️ AI businesses with heavy investment look not only at revenue but also how much was spent building computing power and whether cash flow can sustain it. Even if revenue grows, whether it’s driven by core demand or by continuous discounting and increased investment can mean very different things. 4️⃣ Back to the beginning: Whose expectations were actually exceeded? The "exceeded expectations" in the news usually compares to analysts’ consensus forecasts. But this number doesn’t necessarily equal the threshold investors have in mind. For example: Analysts expect earnings of 100, but investors already expect 110. If the final report is 103, the headline can say "exceeded expectations," but the market might think it’s not good enough. Another case: This quarter is good, but management lowers guidance for the next period. Past high earnings don’t guarantee future growth at the same pace. So "better than last year," "better than forecast," and "good enough to justify the current stock price" are three different things. 5️⃣ When it comes to prediction markets, be clear about what you’re judging "Whether profit exceeds a certain number" and "whether the stock price rises after the earnings report" are two different questions. The first is more about operating results; the second also considers market expectations, valuation, and the current environment. After understanding earnings reports and participating in prediction markets, how do you express your judgment? This is also why stock perpetual contracts are worth attention. OKX has launched multiple Tradfi perpetual contract products, supporting USDT as margin, trading 24/7. For those unfamiliar with such volatility, first reading interpretations and waiting for more complete information is also a way to participate. More flexible tools don’t mean less risk. OKX Prophet Season 3 is coming soon! This season’s theme is U.S. earnings 👀 We’ve invited many quality U.S. stock traders to share earnings interpretations and trading operations on the platform. You can see what they focus on before earnings, how they analyze results, and under what circumstances they adjust their original judgments. Details on the competition format and participation will be announced later 💚

Why does the U.S. stock market often rise after midterm elections? ③ 🧐 Wall Street has a pattern that has lasted for more than 70 years. From 1950 to 2022, in 19 U.S. midterm elections, the S&P 500 rose every time in the 12 months following the election, with an average increase of about 15%. No matter which party wins, the U.S. stock market seems to always experience a rally after the election. For example, in 2022, U.S. inflation once surged to 9.1%, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively, and the stock market dropped sharply. But from the midterm election that year to one year later, the S&P 500 actually rose about 14.5%. Why is this? ———————— The first reason is the fading of uncertainty. Before the election, policies on taxes, regulations, and so on are undecided, making it difficult for investors to judge the future business environment of companies, so they demand higher risk compensation. After the election, the congressional landscape becomes clear, policy directions are easier to predict, market risk premiums may decline, and stock valuations have room to recover. So for the market, whether the result meets expectations is sometimes more important than who wins. ———————— The second reason is the cyclical recovery of the stock market. Fidelity statistics show that in the second year of a presidential term, which is the midterm election year, the average return of the U.S. stock market is about 5%. In the third year, the average return rises to 14%. Because the election year is often accompanied by political uncertainty and market volatility. Once pessimism fades, stock prices may rebound. For example, after the 2002 internet bubble burst and the 2018 market adjustments triggered by trade frictions and rate hikes, the U.S. stock market rose the following year. Of course, this is also influenced by the economic cycle and Federal Reserve monetary policy. ———————— The third reason is that Wall Street sometimes prefers a Congress that is not too easy to get things done. If the president’s party controls both the House and Senate, major policies are easier to push through. But if one chamber is lost, a "divided government" may form. The difficulty of advancing major reforms like taxes and regulations increases, and existing business rules are more likely to continue. Of course, political deadlock can also trigger budget and debt ceiling crises, bringing new risks to the market. ———————— However, there is an easily overlooked issue with all 19 times rising: The U.S. stock market itself has a long-term upward trend. Corporate earnings growth, economic expansion, and the continuous adjustment of S&P 500 component stocks all play a role. So midterm elections are just one of the factors affecting the stock market. And there is a special situation in 2026: The U.S. stock market has already risen in advance. As of early October, the S&P 500 has risen more than 10% within the year. In many past midterm election years, the stock market first experienced volatility and then recovered after the election. But this year, the market has already run ahead. If the election results meet expectations, some positive factors may have already been reflected in stock prices. To replicate the historical average post-election rise of 15%, corporate earnings need to continue growing, or the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates further. So, the end of this year’s election may allow the market to breathe a sigh of relief, but whether it can rally again depends on whether corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve can carry the baton forward.

House of Representatives and Senate, which has more influence on the US stock market?｜US Midterm Elections and US Stocks② First, clarify the transmission path: congressional elections change expectations for fiscal and trade policies, affecting inflation, government borrowing, and the 10-year US Treasury yield, which in turn impacts tech stock valuations. The direction of this path cannot be judged solely by whether the Democrats or Republicans win. Instead, the question is whether a divided government will limit fiscal expansion or create a situation where spending is hard to reduce, deficits are hard to lower, and policy conflicts increase. Taxation and appropriations require participation from both chambers; either chamber can block major legislation; the Senate also confirms key personnel appointments. Even if the Democrats control both chambers, the president is still Trump, who retains veto power. Therefore, after the Democrats win Congress, the market needs to reassess what policies both sides will ultimately pass. —————— Path 1: New fiscal stimulus is limited, yields may decline. Assuming the market originally expected that if the Republicans held both chambers, they would introduce new tax cuts or spending plans. If the Democrats take the House, the probability of these plans passing may decrease. Less new stimulus than expected means future demand, growth, and inflationary pressures may ease, and government borrowing may also be less than originally expected. The market may thus lower the future interest rate path, supporting 10-year Treasury prices and pushing yields down. JPMorgan Asset Management's June 15 analysis takes a divided government as the baseline scenario, believing that a House flip would significantly limit the Republican domestic policy agenda and increase fiscal negotiation difficulties. It also warns that with a narrower domestic legislative space, the president may rely more on executive power and shift policy focus to trade and diplomacy. Fiscal stimulus constraints and rising trade policy risks can occur simultaneously. —————— Path 2: Both sides compromise by increasing spending, deficits may not decline. UBS CIO as of September 3 gave scenario probabilities: Republicans hold both chambers 10%, Democrats take the House and Republicans hold the Senate 50%, Democrats take both chambers 40%. They believe that under a divided Congress, both sides may agree to increase defense spending and delay social program cuts. In the scenario where Democrats control both chambers, tax increases may face presidential resistance, and the final compromise could lead to wider deficits and less fiscal tightening. Spending cuts are delayed, revenues do not increase correspondingly, future deficits and borrowing needs exceed expectations, increasing pressure on long-term bond supply. If economic demand remains strong, looser fiscal policy may also make inflation harder to fall, reducing market expectations for rate cuts. —————— Path 3: Fiscal conflicts increase compensation required for holding long-term bonds. Charles Schwab on August 18 noted that if the Senate also flips, personnel confirmations will face more resistance. For long-term government bonds, policy reversals may cause investors to demand more compensation, known as term premium. The 10-year nominal yield can be decomposed into real yield and inflation compensation. The latter is usually measured by Breakeven, which includes inflation expectations and is also affected by risk premium and liquidity. Assuming inflation compensation falls by 20 basis points and nominal yield only falls by 5 basis points, the real yield actually rises by 15 basis points.