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灯塔说
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#九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
How to view tonight's CPI?
The previous value was 3.4, the expectation is 3.6, and the recent market performance has already reflected the market's assumption of a rebound in September inflation.
So as long as it is within expectations, there is basically no major negative impact.
The focus should be on the core CPI data, expected to be 0.2, which is the inflation data excluding energy.
As long as the core data does not exceed expectations, the impact from energy is in line with market expectations.
In summary, look at the core CPI data: greater than 0.2 is negative, raising expectations for a rate hike in October. Less than or equal to meets expectations, and the market is expected to stop falling and rebound. $BTC $XAU $CL
$BTC Here it can go up or down. It can go up because the previous high point at 87K has adjusted downward and liquidity below has been captured on the 4-hour level.
It can go down because the 4-hour level pullback low has not been fully confirmed.
Following the principle of big moves in the main direction and small moves against it, a small adjustment around 83000-82800 is enough to follow the upward direction and go long; if it breaks below 82K, then continue the pullback to find a lower point.
$ETH Ethereum has also captured liquidity below, which can be understood as the adjustment being initially completed. In trading, a small pullback near 2500 is a buy opportunity, aiming for new highs. If resistance at 2600-2620 holds and it breaks below 2480, then continue to watch 2400 and possibly look for lower points.
$XAU Gold touched resistance at 4220 and adjusted. Follow the trend and wait for a low to go long, entering around 4150 as originally planned. Mid-term target is 4300-4500.
灯塔说
Synchronizing a few points of thought:
The recent drop a couple of days ago was said to be influenced by several macro factors, but these macro factors have been deteriorating for a long time, especially the continuous new highs in US long-term bonds, while crypto and US stock indices kept hitting new highs during this period.
This indicates that market pressure is not only from interest rates but also includes earnings expectations, position risks, and deleveraging.
The meeting minutes from the day before yesterday also clearly stated there will be another rate hike this year. Yesterday oil prices rebounded somewhat, possibly because the Middle East risk behind it has not stabilized, indicating that with high oil prices, the market is unlikely to tighten in the short term.
Yesterday's drop has already washed out some of the market's leveraged long positions, and short-term selling is also exhausted, but this is not yet a bottoming signal. The 4-hour chart broke multiple support levels forming a bearish structure; let's see how the bottoming situation develops over the next few days. Short-term resistance is near 83000, with support at 80000 below.
Crude oil is currently in a phase of contention. After short positions around 96 and closing around 88, it has been fluctuating in waves. Next, will it escalate or negotiate? But Iran doesn't have much time left; Trump will definitely take action around the midterm elections in November. Follow the market direction; if by the end of the month there is still no negotiation news and prices remain below 90, then expect a rebound attempt.
Gold emphasized yesterday that the previously confirmed support at 4080-4060 was reached, triggering a rebound as expected today. If macro conditions stabilize afterward, gold's rebound will last at least until around 4300-4500. Maintain low long positions, and on short-term dips around 4150, continue to go long.
$BTC $CL $XAU
Synchronizing a few points of thought:
The recent drop a couple of days ago was said to be influenced by several macro factors, but these macro factors have been deteriorating for a long time, especially the continuous new highs in US long-term bonds, while crypto and US stock indices kept hitting new highs during this period.
This indicates that market pressure is not only from interest rates but also includes earnings expectations, position risks, and deleveraging.
The meeting minutes from the day before yesterday also clearly stated there will be another rate hike this year. Yesterday oil prices rebounded somewhat, possibly because the Middle East risk behind it has not stabilized, indicating that with high oil prices, the market is unlikely to tighten in the short term.
Yesterday's drop has already washed out some of the market's leveraged long positions, and short-term selling is also exhausted, but this is not yet a bottoming signal. The 4-hour chart broke multiple support levels forming a bearish structure; let's see how the bottoming situation develops over the next few days. Short-term resistance is near 83000, with support at 80000 below.
Crude oil is currently in a phase of contention. After short positions around 96 and closing around 88, it has been fluctuating in waves. Next, will it escalate or negotiate? But Iran doesn't have much time left; Trump will definitely take action around the midterm elections in November. Follow the market direction; if by the end of the month there is still no negotiation news and prices remain below 90, then expect a rebound attempt.
Gold emphasized yesterday that the previously confirmed support at 4080-4060 was reached, triggering a rebound as expected today. If macro conditions stabilize afterward, gold's rebound will last at least until around 4300-4500. Maintain low long positions, and on short-term dips around 4150, continue to go long.
$BTC $CL $XAU
灯塔说
Gold has reached the previously mentioned support range near 4065-4080
and has made the first step of a rebound
If the bottom is confirmed to have stopped falling
Gold will finally usher in a wave of rebound
$XAU
Gold has reached the previously mentioned support range near 4065-4080
and has made the first step of a rebound
If the bottom is confirmed to have stopped falling
Gold will finally usher in a wave of rebound
$XAU
灯塔说
Gold Market:
Gold is currently in a 4-hour level downtrend.
This correction is expected to drop to around 4000.
The important support at the 4-hour level to watch is near 4065-4085.
If a small cycle structural change occurs here,
it would be a good bottom-fishing opportunity.
$XAU
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
Weekly long read:
This week I read an article about AI, mainly discussing "Is there really a bubble in AI?" When AI investment truly becomes excessive, who will ultimately bear the debt?
According to estimates, from 2025 to 2032, the cumulative investment in AI data centers, chips, power, and network infrastructure in the US could reach an astonishing $10.3 trillion, averaging 3.63% of the US GDP annually. By relative economic scale, this even surpasses the historical waves of railroad, highway, electrification, and communication infrastructure construction in the US.
So, can AI make enough money? If not, who will bear the money already spent?
When investment relies on cash flow,
when the bubble bursts,
the shareholders are the first to suffer.
But as more investments start to rely on debt, SPVs, private credit, and asset securitization,
things change.
Because when the next AI market truly reaches a turning point,
what we may need to watch is not just the Nasdaq.
But—
whether cracks appear first in the credit market.
If so,
that crack
might be the real signal that this round of AI super capital expenditure cycle is entering its second half.
Although such risks have not yet appeared,
they are becoming increasingly difficult to see.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The nonfarm payrolls report for September in the US showed an increase of only 29,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%.
The nonfarm payrolls figure seriously deviated from expectations and was extremely bearish for the US dollar.
Although it continues to reduce expectations for interest rate hikes, the figure being far below expectations has instead caused the market to worry about the potential impact of an economic recession.
After a slight rally, the market consolidated, possibly because the bullish trend had already been priced in over the past two days.
If macroeconomic factors do not lead to a market breakout, then be cautious of a trend where efforts yield no results.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
After Wednesday's PCE data release, the rate hike expectations for October dropped from 66% to the current 27.7%.
Tonight's non-farm payroll data release will redirect the market.
But judging from BTC's movement last night and today's rise,
the market seems to be preemptively reacting as if tonight's non-farm data will be within expectations,
with no strong or cold numbers expected.
As long as employment data does not show a strong rebound,
the probability of rate hike expectations will not rise significantly.
Therefore, if tonight's employment data is within range, the first thing to watch is whether the hourly wage is also below expectations.
If it is higher than expected, then don't be overly bullish.#
灯塔说
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are released, with the market expecting an increase of 90,000 jobs. I expect the announced figure to focus on 80,000–100,000.
Reuters survey expects 90,000, Dow Jones survey 84,000, and this week's ADP also 90,000. Compared to last month's 162,000, I lean towards a cooling in employment, but not to the point of a sharp slowdown.
However, a decline does not equal a positive signal; the market was already anticipating a decline.
To add fuel to the rebound of BTC and ETH, if expectations are met, we still need to watch wages: if hourly wages month-over-month drop to 0.2% and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%, I would take a bullish view on this combination.
Therefore, if the employment numbers meet expectations, wages might be the key to tonight's surprise.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are released, with the market expecting an increase of 90,000 jobs. I expect the announced figure to focus on 80,000–100,000.
Reuters survey expects 90,000, Dow Jones survey 84,000, and this week's ADP also 90,000. Compared to last month's 162,000, I lean towards a cooling in employment, but not to the point of a sharp slowdown.
However, a decline does not equal a positive signal; the market was already anticipating a decline.
To add fuel to the rebound of BTC and ETH, if expectations are met, we still need to watch wages: if hourly wages month-over-month drop to 0.2% and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%, I would take a bullish view on this combination.
Therefore, if the employment numbers meet expectations, wages might be the key to tonight's surprise.
Gold Market:
Gold is currently in a 4-hour level downtrend.
This correction is expected to drop to around 4000.
The important support at the 4-hour level to watch is near 4065-4085.
If a small cycle structural change occurs here,
it would be a good bottom-fishing opportunity.
$XAU
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
Crude Oil Market:
Trump uses the chart in Image 1 every day to "numb" the market.
Last night featured another dramatic "dialogue," with Saudi media stating that Iran has agreed to stop uranium enrichment in exchange for the US easing sanctions, but this was later denied by Iranian officials. Trump also denied this morning any easing of sanctions on Iran or releasing frozen funds in exchange for Iran taking substantive measures on the nuclear issue.
Crude oil prices fell from 96 to 91 yesterday, currently rebounding around 93-94.
I'm holding short positions on crude oil at 96-95 and it's making me almost sick.
Now the US and Iran are in a tug-of-war stage. The good news is no gunfire yet, and a third party is still mediating. The bad news is neither side is willing to give ground.
Here's some experience: once negotiations become effective, don't miss the crude oil drop, at least a 10-point start, with a target directly at 83-85.
If hostilities resume, abandon all short positions.
[Personal trading opinion only, not investment advice]
$CL
