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颜值糕(乞讨版)
颜值糕(乞讨版)
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特朗普再度公开施压美联储:美国应当拥有全球最低利率 (金十数据9月13日讯) 下周FOMC议息会议前夕,特朗普再次对外表态:美国理应拥有全球最低的利率。 他的诉求很直白:压低利率,一方面减轻美国联邦债务巨额的利息负担,另一方面放水刺激国内经济。 但现实出现非常割裂的局面。 8月核心CPI超预期反弹,通胀粘性挥之不去,利率期货市场定价,下周美联储重启加息概率已经逼近90%。 总统想要降息,数据却逼美联储加息。 理论上美联储具备政策独立性,不会因为总统口头喊话就直接修改利率决议 。但这一次事件的深层看点,不在于这一次会议会不会改变结果,而是美联储往后会长期笼罩在巨大的政治压力之下。 对币圈BTC、ETH的解读 短期:口头喊话很难扭转盘面定价 行情主线依旧是下周美联储议息决议与沃什发布会讲话。 光靠口头喊话,很难立刻逆转已经定价完成的加息预期。 不要看到新闻,就去无脑博弈降息预期,现在宏观现实并不支持。 通胀居高不下,只要美联储表态偏鹰,大饼以太依旧要承受流动性收紧的压力。
颜值糕(乞讨版)
颜值糕(乞讨版)
Fundamentals are always the core of long-term competition. The recent market cycle has realistically taught everyone a lesson. Inflation data has rebounded again, the market is repricing Federal Reserve rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and the entire crypto market is being suppressed under the macro environment of tightening liquidity. Various narratives take turns on the market stage. BTC is being pulled back and forth by ETF funds; ETH is repeatedly battling on stories of L2 and RWA; ZEC's privacy theme has shown sharp pulses, heating up fiercely when rising and showing no mercy during pullbacks. News can push prices up in the short term, but narratives cannot withstand macro liquidity contraction. Many people get addicted to the floating profits brought by stories but overlook one thing: narratives are just the fuel for the market, real fundamentals are the moat that withstands cycles. What are fundamentals? They are not stories hyped by communities. They are the real capital inflows and outflows of BTC spot ETFs, the chips settled on-chain; They are ETH's real on-chain fees and settlement demands; They are ZEC's real users in the privacy sector, not pure thematic speculation. At the macro level, fundamentals are the real U.S. inflation and employment data, the Federal Reserve's policy path written in black and white, not the rate cut scripts imagined by traders. When liquidity is loose, any story can fly; when the tide tightens, premiums built on sentiment will quickly dissipate. Account floating profits come fast and can disappear with a single spike. Only the underlying real fundamentals can withstand the repeated shocks of a rate hike cycle#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元

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