$HYPE 【This ID's Viewpoint】
HYPE has fallen steadily from the high of 95.267, dipping to 82.613 before staging a corrective rebound. Currently, it is oscillating back and forth near a secondary minor consolidation zone. This rebound is merely a breather after the decline; the price has not managed to retest the previous large purple consolidation zone, and the bulls' offensive strength is limited. The overall major trend remains weak.
Entry: Try shorting if the price fails to sustain a breakout above the minor consolidation zone.
Stop loss: Set above the recent rebound's minor high.
Chan Theory Structure:
On the 30-minute timeframe, after surging to 95.267, there was a strong downward leg that broke below the previous large purple consolidation zone, hitting a low of 82.613. Subsequently, a secondary purple rebound minor consolidation zone formed as shown in the chart, representing a typical intermediate consolidation within a downtrend. The price has never touched the lower boundary of the upper large consolidation zone; the momentum of the secondary rebound is gradually fading. As long as the price cannot break upward out of this minor consolidation, the downtrend structure remains intact.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation:
During the prior downward plunge, bearish candles showed volume spikes, indicating concentrated selling pressure release. However, during this rebound consolidation, volume fails to expand on upward moves; each rally candle shows decreasing volume, while volume on pullback bearish candles does not significantly shrink. This suggests weak buying interest from bottom-fishing funds, with more short-term traders oscillating back and forth. The selling pressure above remains very real.
Key Observation:
Focus on this secondary minor consolidation zone. Only a volume breakout above this zone can signal a potential trend strengthening; if the price breaks down below the lower boundary of this minor consolidation, a new downward leg is very likely to begin.
