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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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#Bitcoin 经历了本周的资金外流与调整其实目前走势并不悲观,趋势上依旧在4小时趋势线上方,不算弱势 当然,既然数据不配合,那么盘面上短期就不能太过乐观,短期操作做多风险依旧较大,操作上还需要注意 并且,如果关注到后续加密市场资金与ETF净流出,但是盘面小级别反弹这种背离走势,更是需要警惕诱多风险 趋势上,我对后续走势依旧抱有乐观态度,目前的走势来看这种回调后一旦企稳就是一个很好的上车机会 回归盘面,如果后续资金继续流出+盘面回调,未来2-3周要关注68,000——70,000附近能否成为回调转机,除了盘面,关注资金是否停止净流出或者持续净流入,这都是判断标注 当后续宏观侧改善,美债收益率不在持续上涨转为震荡稳定, #BTC 价格企稳,那么阶段性的转折点就来看,下一次的拉升可能就是新趋势的右侧真正起点,当然前提是价格回归68,000附近,今年2-4月买入的筹码持有至不会继续卖出!#机构持续布局,BTC为何仍承压?
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Outflow of US capital, initial signs of liquidity squeeze caused by interest rate hike expectations and high interest rate environment!
Outflow of US-based funds, initial signs of liquidity squeeze caused by interest rate hike expectations + high interest rate environment! After missing a week, here is an update on this week's #Bitcoin ETF data: Monday net outflow of 89.8 million, Tuesday net inflow of 118.8 million, Wednesday net outflow of 484.9 million, Thursday net outflow of 244.1 million, Friday net inflow of 21.1 million, with a total net outflow of 678.9 million USD this week. #Institutions continue to position, so why is BTC still under pressure? Among these, IBIT saw net outflows on Wednesday and Thursday, with net inflows on other days. Wednesday experienced collective net outflows, no longer just simple fund rotation, and Friday's fund return was only 21.1 million, indicating weak return and pessimistic sentiment. Comparing crypto market data to October 5, the market cap decline is concentrated on #BTC and altcoins, with total funds decreasing by 1 billion, USDT supply unchanged, USDC net outflow of 1 billion, and US-based mainstream funds mainly outflowing. Combining ETF and crypto market data, it is clear that this week marks a major outflow phase of US-based funds, which is indeed not a good sign for coin prices. Regarding ETFs, IBIT had two large net outflows this week. Accompanying BTC's decline, we can see the long-term US Treasury yields for 10 and 30 years slowing their rise, gradually entering a volatile downward trend. Clearly, this is the effect of October's rate hikes + high bond market yields squeezing liquidity in risk assets. When risk-free yield assets are at high levels and further rate hikes are confirmed, some funds will naturally be constrained by current interest rates, leading to risk...

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