wesley教授
wesley教授
Founder of Block Infinity, Poker player, Trader, Chinese whale, @drhashclub
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A piece of news easily dismissed as gossip: the Israeli Prime Minister announced plans to prepare an "alternative economic system" to bypass sanctions, explicitly naming blockchain and cryptocurrency.
This needs to be viewed from two sides. On one hand, it once again confirms the strongest narrative of crypto — censorship resistance and the ability to bypass bank blocks, which is something Bitcoin has truly never been disproven of in over a decade. On the other hand, a head of state openly saying they want to use it to evade sanctions effectively points regulatory guns even closer at the entire industry.
For those making transactions, remember this: the same attribute that you see as "value" may be seen as "risk" by regulators. The narrative of $BTC has never been one-way; the benefits and regulatory boots often come from the same source.
There is a high probability of a 25 basis point cut tonight; the market priced this in months ago. So, a reminder: don't expect the "rate cut" itself to lift $BTC.
The real risk is buying the expectation and selling the fact. The moment good news materializes is often the starting gun for short-term funds to take profits. You see BTC stuck at 80,000 these days, with fees lukewarm, because the expected rise has already happened, and the bullets are spent.
So tonight, don't focus on the headline, focus on the reaction: if the good news is fully priced in and the market doesn't rise but falls instead, that's the market telling you the truth. Whether it cuts or not is not important; what matters is where it goes after the cut. Which side are you betting on?
Everyone is focused on tonight's Federal Reserve, waiting for that rate cut. But today, the Bank of Canada did something that didn't make the headlines: the first rate hike in over three years, 25 basis points, and they even said — there might be more hikes to come.
The reason is straightforward: energy prices are expected to stay high for longer, and cost pressures are building. This is the same logic as in the UK and Europe — European natural gas just touched 100 euros today, the first time since the 2022 energy crisis.
While some are preparing for rate cuts, others have already turned back to rate hikes. The bond market knows clearly: inflation isn't something that will be easily resolved. As long as long-term interest rates don't truly come down, those high-valuation assets propped up by the "money is always cheap" narrative will always have a sword hanging over their heads. $BTC, a type purely relying on liquidity narratives, fears most the "rate cut expectations being proven wrong."
Tonight at the Federal Reserve, once again a bunch of people are ready to rush in the second the data comes out to take a gamble. I'll say the opposite: on event days, the real money-making move is often "not moving".
For the position below, I fixed the size and stop-loss line when I entered. Since the logic hasn't changed, what I plan to do tonight is not to add to the position, not to reverse, nor to guess Powell's lip movements, but to let it stay put.
After playing cards for a long time, you'll understand: most chips are lost not because of misreading the cards, but because of itchy hands—wanting to bet on every street, which ends up ruining a winning hand. Just because the market deals you cards doesn't mean you have to follow every one.
$BTC stuck at 80,000 without moving means the market is holding back a big move. The more it’s times like this, the more you shouldn’t have itchy hands. Tonight, are you planning to watch the show, or are you going to jump in and take a gamble again?
The script for storage stocks these past two days is worth everyone copying down and posting on the wall: an outrageously good earnings report doesn't necessarily mean the stock price will respond accordingly.
Seagate's quarterly revenue surged 61%, the earnings report was explosive, yet the stock price didn't rise. SK Hynix boasts an 80% operating profit margin, production capacity sold out through 2029, and even handed out over ten billion USD in special dividends. The numbers look as good as an advertisement, but the stock price had already priced in this perfection before the earnings report.
This is sell the news: when everyone knows it will be good, the good itself is no longer a positive catalyst. When I short storage, I'm never betting on the numbers of this single quarter, but on the market having priced it as if it will always be this good. A high-conviction short is holding valuation, not news.
Do you think this storage frenzy is the peak of the cycle, or just the beginning?
Many people can't tell the difference between "holding a position" and "stubbornly holding on," but there's a life-or-death difference between the two.
Holding a position means you correctly identified the big trend, but the market shook you a bit in the short term, so you can endure the floating loss. Stubbornly holding on means you've clearly been proven wrong, yet you use the phrase "I have faith" to give yourself an excuse not to admit your mistake.
There are three distinctions: First, your position size is small enough that this floating loss doesn't affect your sleep; second, before entering, you set a strict invalidation line—if it’s hit, you exit without changing it on the fly; third, you never add to your position just because of floating losses to average down—that's a gambler extending their own life.
If you can't follow these three rules, you're not holding a position, you're lining up for liquidation. It's the same in poker: no matter how tempting the pot is, if your draw doesn't hit, it just doesn't hit. The difference between a hero call and throwing money away is just one word: discipline.
The Federal Reserve is very likely to cut 25 basis points on Wednesday, it's almost written on the face. But even if it really cuts, don't rush to celebrate.
Veterans never focus on whether it will cut or not, but on three other things: whether Powell will hint at "cutting again in December," whether the balance sheet reduction will stop, and where the dot plot will move. The rate cut itself has long been priced in; the wording is what moves the market.
What's even more critical is the crypto side: the stock market is rushing ahead with risk-on, the VIX has fallen below 18, but $BTC hasn't kept up at all; every rebound collapses on contact, and volume is so dry it’s like everyone is collectively holding their breath. What does this mean? Even if the Fed loosens liquidity, there isn't enough new buying power within the crypto market to take over. When all the good news is out, it often happens at the very moment everyone is waiting for the good news to be realized.
A number treated as background noise, but worth you looking up at: The Pentagon's own estimate puts the cost of the current US military operations against Iran at over $47 billion, and it's still rising. Iran, on the other hand, claims to have full control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The market is used to treating the Middle East as just talk, but this is real money burning, and the global oil chokehold is once again in hand.
What does this have to do with the $BTC in your hand? The chain is like this: oil prices remain high → inflation sticks and won't come down → even if the Fed talks about cutting rates, it dares not move too fast. This Wednesday's rate decision, the real variable has never been whether Powell wants to cut rates, but whether oil prices will allow him to. The war this year is never about the old "safe-haven gold buying" script, but about the nail called inflation.
SK Hynix's Q3 report is out, and the numbers are hot: management says memory shortages will last until 2030, HBM4 will directly become the main force in Q4, capital expenditure in 2027 will be significantly increased, and more than half of the capacity for the long-term contracts in 2027 and 2028 has already been locked in, plus a special dividend of over ten billion USD. The stock price jumped more than two points after hours.
Below is the storage short position I held into earnings night, currently showing an unrealized loss. I won't pretend—this earnings report is genuinely impressive.
But a high-conviction short bet is never on just one number tonight; it's a gamble on whether the entire AI financing chain can forever price itself relying on other people's money. I set the stop-loss line before entering; until it hits, this unrealized loss is just the cost of holding the position, not a verdict.
