Web山大王
Web山大王
长期关注 Crypto、AI、美股与宏观趋势。 相信 BTC 是数字黄金，也相信市场与万物皆有周期。坚持以价值发现为锚、以周期思维应对波动；OKB Holder，长期主义践行者。 专属社群已开启，点击右上角「群聊」即可加入。群内定期分享市场观点、交易策略与福利活动，期待与你一起交流、洞见周期。
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This month's macro news is simply mind-boggling. As soon as the non-farm payroll data came out, the market instantly cooled off! Then CPI and PPI added fuel to the fire. Now the rate hike expectations are back to 50%. Even if they hold steady this month, it's highly likely they'll act in December, and a 50 basis point hike is possible, not just the widely expected 25.
Nasdaq, as the only stock market highly correlated with the crypto space, has fallen for eight consecutive days, and the overall US stock market is clearly pulling back. Stocks are like this, how much longer can crypto stand alone? 🤔️
$BTC is currently fluctuating around $81,000, with key support at the $80,000 level; if it breaks below, it may continue to decline.
$ETH is even weaker, hovering around $2,400, facing obvious short-term pressure, and has pulled back deeper than Bitcoin. Both are weakening along with Nasdaq!
Looking at these data, it's indeed easy to feel uneasy.
But for those trading contracts, you can profit from both rises and falls. For spot holders, it's even more important to look further ahead to truly seize the opportunities of the big cycle.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
As soon as the price bounces a little, someone in the group shouts that the bottom has arrived and urges to get on board quickly.😄
But the reality is often that short-term funds are speculating, while the real big players are quietly exiting. Ordinary people are most likely to catch the falling knife at such times.
$BTC has seen billions of dollars flow out continuously from ETFs in recent days. When US inflation data spikes, the market fears rate hikes, and the price fluctuates around $80,000. Large funds are clearly reducing positions now, not genuinely supporting the bottom.
$ETH is even tougher. ETFs have had large outflows for more than ten consecutive days, with billions running out in a single week. The price just rose above 2400, seeming to recover a bit, but underlying funds have been fleeing all along.
Trading can't rely solely on daily charts; paying more attention to capital flows and real project progress is the key to improving your win rate!
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
Last night, as the US inflation data was released, Bitcoin immediately plunged from its high, causing tens of thousands of contracts to liquidate instantly! 😱
Right now, the market is focused on tonight's production-side data. CPI reflects whether everyday goods are getting more expensive, while PPI shows if factory production costs continue to rise.
If factory costs also rise tonight, US Treasury yields will likely struggle to fall, and Bitcoin at the 80,000 level will become the last key support.
Conversely, if the data cools down, the market will have reason to believe this was just caused by oil prices, and funds might boldly flow back in.
Currently, $BTC has dropped from its high to around 80,000, with the market repeatedly testing this critical support level. The price is stuck in the 80,000–81,000 range; if it breaks down, the next stop could be 78,000.
After tonight's data release, the direction will become clear. Whether it holds or breaks depends on how strong the PPI is.
$ETH $SOL
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期
The released US September CPI data brought no surprises, only shocks.
Overall inflation year-over-year is 3.7% (expected 3.6%), with a month-over-month jump directly to 0.6%; core inflation year-over-year is 2.6%, month-over-month 0.3%, also exceeding expectations. Gasoline price hikes are the main cause (a single-month surge of about 9%), but even excluding energy, the core is still rising, indicating that the price pressure is not just about oil; other daily expenses are also not easing.
The Federal Reserve's biggest headache is that core inflation won't come down. The market has completely shifted from expecting rate cuts; the probability of a rate hike at the end of October meeting surged from about 20% previously to nearly 50%, with the dollar and US Treasury yields rising simultaneously, putting risk assets under direct pressure.
$BTC quickly dipped to around $82,000 after the data release, dropping about 1%-2%, but overall remained restrained without panic selling.
More importantly, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $175 million the day before the data. Institutions are not running away; instead, they continue accumulating.
It's normal for short-term moves to be influenced by macro sentiment, but in the long term, Bitcoin has become one of the core products in institutional portfolios.
Don't be scared by one day's volatility; even if the data is bearish, as long as funds keep flowing in, there are hands supporting the bottom.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
$ETH $SOL