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PONS at $0.83, what are you betting on? First, look at the surface: it rose 300 times in two months but pulled back 30% after the ATH. July low was 0.0033, ATH hit 0.97 on September 5, a 294x increase in two months. Then it dropped to 0.68, now bounced back to 0.81, daily volatility range 0.68-0.88, 24-hour trading volume $150 million, turnover rate frighteningly high. The trend isn’t dead but it’s overheated. First thing: The burn is real, the revenue is real, but the party has an expiration date. PONS is not air. 80% of protocol revenue is used to buy back and burn PONS, about 30% of total supply has been burned, reduced from 1 billion to just over 700 million. The official confirmed this number on September 8. But note: Robinhood Chain’s 90-day gas fee subsidy expires on September 29. Currently, issuing tokens and boosting volume costs almost nothing, so tens of thousands of tokens can be issued daily, contributing 50%-80% of on-chain activity. Once the subsidy stops, the cost of issuing tokens will skyrocket by tens or even hundreds of times. High-frequency token issuance and trading volume will likely crash sharply. Second thing: Uniswap bought in, major exchanges listed it, who’s taking the last baton? Uniswap Labs bought PONS claiming "long-term alignment," exchanges are listing it one after another, OKEx perpetual just launched on September 5. PONS rose from 0.0033 to 0.97, early participants have hundreds of times profit on paper. After perpetual contracts launched, a long-short double blow happened once—after ATH it dropped to 0.68, about 30% decline. Retail sees "listing as good news," whales see "liquidity is enough, time to exit in batches." Third thing: The chip structure is more dangerous than you think. Initial supply 1 billion, about 30% burned, circulating about 700-710 million, market cap about $560-580 million. But how much of this "circulation" is early low-cost chips, you decide. Project team, Launchpad early participants, meme teams that listed immediately after issuance—their cost is close to zero. Long-short showdown, you decide: On one side: - 30% cumulative burn, supply continuously deflating - Uniswap Labs buying, institutional endorsement - Major exchanges listing one after another, liquidity improving - Protocol revenue in millions, buyback funds buying daily On the other side: - Gas subsidy expires September 29, core driver ends - 30% pullback after ATH, rebound with shrinking volume - Early chips profited hundreds of times - Valuation priced in "zero Gas party," expectations extremely high Resistance above: 0.88 (intraday high) → 0.97 (ATH) → 1.00 (psychological barrier) Support below: 0.76-0.78 (rebound midpoint) → 0.68-0.70 (defense line, losing it weakens structure) → 0.60-0.65 Operation strategy Spot players: Wait to buy on a pullback to 0.76-0.78 to stabilize, or deeper near 0.70. First target 0.88, second 0.95-0.97, exit if it breaks 0.68. After September 20, reduce positions to survive regardless of profit. Contract players: Light short positions on 0.86-0.88 high stagnation, targets 0.78/0.70. But don’t short naked—buyback funds are buying daily, shorts can be squeezed anytime. No position players: Wait. Wait for pullback confirmation, wait for panic selling after subsidy expiration to form a real bottom, wait for BTC to hold above 80,000. Four things you must watch in the next two weeks: - Can daily fees maintain above $1 million? This is the lifeline of buyback funds. - Will the burn progress continue to 32%-35%? Stopping is a signal. - Will funds start rushing out before September 29? Smart money acts 7-10 days early. - Can BTC hold 77,000? If not, high Beta altcoins die first. PONS is now a "zero Gas printing machine"— Revenue is real, burn is real, Uniswap’s buy-in is real. But the fuel for the party is Robinhood Chain’s paid subsidy for free token issuance. Once September 29 arrives and the fuel cuts off, how fast can this printing machine keep running? You think you’re betting on a project’s fundamentals, but you’re actually betting on whether the subsidy will be renewed. In 19 days, will you be at the peak or the bottom? $BTC $ETH $PONS