BTC at $77,300, are you still waiting to short?
First, look at the surface: bad news bombarding, but the price doesn't crash.
In the past week, the US core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, higher than expected; ETFs saw a net outflow of $460 million over four consecutive days; the probability of a September FOMC rate hike is priced at 70-80%. BTC fell from a high of 82,000, now stuck at 77,300, fluctuating narrowly intraday.
Sounds scary? But look at the chart — no crash.
First thing: ETFs are running, but it's the short-term traders leaving.
From September 8-11, spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $460 million, and IBIT also saw redemptions. The community exploded: "Institutions are running, is the bull market over?"
Cumulative ETF net inflows still exceed $55 billion, accounting for 6.3% of total market cap. That $460 million is just a drop in the bucket.
Short-term marginal buying has weakened, true, but the long-term institutional allocation logic remains unchanged. Those leaving are short-term funds chasing highs and selling lows, not pension funds or sovereign wealth funds.
Second thing: rate hike expectations are at the peak, but the market has already kneeled halfway.
Core CPI is hot, September hike probability soared to 80%. The 10-year US Treasury yield is high, and real rates suppress non-interest assets.
But look at the post-CPI release movement: it first dipped to 76,000, then quickly rebounded. Bad news came out but no drop, meaning those who needed to run have already run.
The September 15-16 FOMC is a nuclear-level catalyst. Rate hike confirmed + dovish wording = all bad news priced in, directly charging to 80k. Rate hike confirmed + hawkish wording = retest 76k or even 72k.
Third thing: technically, BTC is at the lower edge of the range; 76,000 is the lifeline.
Currently in the mid-lower part of the 76,000-82,000 range. Above, there is a supply wall at 77,000-80,200; the 365-day moving average at 81,700 is strong resistance. Below, 76,000-76,500 is the recent low and psychological threshold.
RSI at 55, MACD momentum weakening, weekend liquidity poor, volatility easily amplified.
In short: hold 76k, look for a rebound to 80k; break below 76k, look for 75k or even 72k.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
Supply continues tightening after halving, only 20.08 million circulating
ETF cumulative net inflows over $55 billion, long-term institutional allocation unchanged
Price above 50/200-day moving averages, mid-term structure bullish
Strong support at 76,000 lower range, defended multiple times
On the other side:
ETF net outflow of $460 million over four consecutive days, short-term buying weakened
September hike probability 80%, cautious sentiment before FOMC
Seasonally weak in September, poor weekend liquidity
Supply wall at 77k-80.2k plus 365-day moving average resistance at 81,700
Resistance above: 78,000 → 80,000-82,000 (upper range)
Support below: 76,000-76,500 (lifeline) → 75,000 → 72,000 (moving average zone)
Trading strategy
Range-bound approach:
Buy lightly on dips between 76,200-76,800, target 78,000-79,500, stop loss below 75,800.
Sell or lightly short on rallies between 78,500-80,000, target 77,000-76,500, stop loss above 80,500.
Breakout approach:
Effectively hold above 78,000 with volume → chase longs, target 80,000-82,000.
Break below 76,000 with close confirmation → wait or lightly short, target 75,000, 72,000.
BTC now is like the night before the ETF approval in October 2023 —
99% of people thought "it can't go up anymore," but it doubled six months later.
The day 76,000 holds, you'll realize:
It's not that BTC is weak, it's that you kept cutting losses at the lower edge of the range.
At 77,300, do you dare to chase?
$BTC$ETH$ZEC
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