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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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ZEC从1296砸回1130,明天NU7投票截止,ETF还在买,空头还在加,这波是冲1300还是崩回1000? 第一件事:ETF是真的,空头也是真的。 Grayscale ZCSH现货ETF,8月25日上市,首个隐私币现货ETF,AUM已经干到4.6-7亿美金,持续买盘。空头被挤压,单日数千万美元空单爆仓。 但反向声音也不少:F2Pool联合创始人公开说这是“叙事挤压+交易所上币+ETF炒作”,屏蔽交易采用率根本不够高,基本面没跟上。大户Garrett Jin还在持续加空,部分仓位深亏。 第二件事:明天NU7投票,才是真正的分水岭。 9月14日19:00 UTC,NU7治理投票截止。投票内容:是否用平滑发行替代减半、区块时间缩短到25秒、Sprout池退役、升级是否按时上线。 这直接决定ZEC后续的供应节奏和网络叙事。投票通过,长期利好,供应更平滑;投票失败,短期砸盘,但ETF还在买。 第三件事:技术面高位盘整,1100是生死线。 日线仍是上升趋势,价格远高于20/50日均线(20日均线约980),但从1296高点回撤了12-13%。RSI 63-67,从超买降温,还没超卖。4小时图有顶背离+上升楔形,短期有回踩可能。 守住1110,继续箱体震荡;跌破1100放量,可能加速测试1000。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: Grayscale ETF持续买,AUM 4.6-7亿 空头挤压,单日数千万爆仓 隐私叙事+AI数据隐私担忧,赛道今年远超大盘 Ironwood升级修复漏洞,屏蔽供应量回升至28-30% 矿工利润约2倍BTC,哈希率创新高 一边是: 30天涨130%,获利盘巨大 F2Pool联创质疑:屏蔽采用率不够高 大户Garrett Jin持续加空 CPI偏热,9月16日FOMC加息预期升温 隐私币监管不确定性仍在 上方阻力:1155-1165 → 1200 → 1237-1296 下方支撑:1110-1120 → 1080-1100 → 1000 操作策略 偏多思路: 1130附近轻仓试多,或等回踩1110-1120加仓。目标1160-1200,突破前高看1300。止损1095-1100下方,有效跌破就减仓或反手观察。 偏空/高位减仓思路: 1150-1165减仓或轻仓对冲,目标回看1100甚至1000。止损1180或前高之上。 中性/观望: 箱体思路:1110附近低吸,1160附近减仓。 投票结果超预期(无论正负)都可能引发10-20%级别波动。ETF买盘可持续性、隐私币监管,都是变量。历史回撤在这种拉升后并不少见。 ZEC这波,不是隐私币的狂欢,是空头的葬礼。 但如果你在1130追高,可能成为下一个葬礼的主角。 明天投票,你赌哪边? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
Today, ETH hovered around $2520; no one in the market talked about technology, everyone was waiting for the next catalyst. But real change often happens where no one is watching. Vitalik has just confirmed one thing: EIP-8141, Frame Deal, officially included in the 2027 Hegotá upgrade. As soon as the news broke, the community exploded. Some shouted, "Ethereum abandons ETH," while others shouted, "ETH must go to zero." Don't rush to cut losses. 90% of people don't even understand what this proposal is talking about before panicking. 1️⃣ What is EIP-8141? Splitting a transaction down to a maximum of 64 yuan. Previously, a transaction was a solid plate: you signed, you paid gas, you executed—three things were tied together. Now, breaking it down—one piece verifies identity, one decides who pays gas, and one executes what you want to do. Codename 0x06, Vitalik is one of the ten authors. On August 27, the program was upgraded from "considered inclusion" to "planned inclusion." 2️⃣ What pain points does it solve? You receive a USDC in your wallet and want to transfer it out. Pop-up: Please prepare ETH to pay gas first. You can't even send out the transfer. This isn't a joke; it's the daily discouragement scene in the crypto world. After EIP-8141: Frank is still Frank, and the signature is still Frank's. But another Paymaster pays ETH for you and Gas, and you settle a bit of USDC with the Paymaster. You only see USDC, but the protocol still cares about ETH. 3️⃣ What exactly is the difference from ERC-4337? ERC-4337 could do this three years ago. But it's an off-chain "plugin"—Bundler, Paymaster, EntryPoint—a bunch of infrastructure piled outside the protocol, with gas costs 20% to 40% higher. EIP-8141 writes all of this into the protocol itself. No need for third-party packaging; old wallets can be used without modification. Atomic batch processing: Authorization and Swap are bundled; if Swap fails, authorization is automatically rolled back, leaving no future trouble. 4️⃣ Is this bad news for ETH? This is the most heartbreaking question. Short-term: No immediate buying. Paymaster has its own inventory management and won't rush to the market to buy ETH just by transferring USDC. Mid-term logic: Gas threshold disappears→ user base increases→ network consumption rises. There is only one real winning factor: after optimizing the experience, will it generate more genuine Ethereum usage demand? If the past 100 people wanted to enter, 70 were persuaded to quit by Gas, and only 30 traded in the end. In the future, 80 people will smoothly complete their transactions—the network will actually consume and burn far more ETH than before. ETH demand is shifting positions, not disappearing. 5️⃣ A detail that has been overlooked EIP-8141 also has a hidden mission: quantum-resistant. Quantum-resistant signatures can reach the scale of several KB. If each user carries such a signature independently, the network would be shut down. The frame transaction splitting structure makes signature aggregation possible. This is not a gas optimization; it is a fundamental rewrite of the account architecture. ETH is hovering at $2520. Market sentiment is cautious, and no one wants to talk about technology. But all the major changes happen when no one is watching. The day the gas threshold disappears will be the real day Ethereum begins competing with Web2 for users. $BTC $ETH $ZEC

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