$76,600 BTC—do you dare to bottom-fish?
Let's look at the surface first: bearish bombardment, bulls are being pinned down and rubbed against the ground.
In the past 7 days, it has dropped 3%, falling from above 80,000 to 76,600. ETFs have seen a continuous net outflow of 460 million, with 750 million in positions being liquidated, resulting in a double blow between bulls and bears. The probability of a rate hike surged from 60% to 88%, the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, and the 30-year year has hit a 19-year high.
K-chart tells you: a double top pattern + horizontal channel breakdown, 10-day/20-day moving averages turning to resistance, short-term pressure is indeed underway.
First: ETFs are flowing out, but you might be overlooking bigger numbers.
From September 8 to 11, ETFs saw a total outflow of 460 million, and on September 10, a single day exceeded 280 million. Sounds scary?
However, ETF cumulative net inflows still exceeded $55 billion, with AUM of about $97.5 billion. The $460 million outflow was less than a fraction of the total.
Dormant coins over five years have hit a record, with about 33% of the supply not participating in trading at all. Long-term holder (LTH) supply remains stuck at high levels.
The second thing: The FOMC is the biggest thunderstorm this week, but it may also be the biggest opportunity.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25bp rate hike on September 16 has risen to 80-88%, with new Chairman Warsh taking a hawkish stance.
With an 88% chance of rate hikes, has it already been priced in?
Historical pattern: The more consistent the expectations, the easier it is to "buy facts." If the FOMC raises rates but is dovish, or if the market finds "that's just how it is," BTC could rebound violently. If rate hikes + hawkish guidance double kill, then 76,000 may not hold, with the next stop at 74,400 or even 70,000.
Third: A signal from the technical side that must be taken seriously.
The price fluctuates between 76,000 and 78,500, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages still above (golden cross structure), indicating a bullish bias in the medium term; However, the 10-day/20-day moving averages have turned to resistance, indicating a bearish outlook in the short term. The RSI daily is neutral around 53, the MACD is weakening in the short term, and the 4-hour period is in consolidation.
Resistance above: 78,000-78,500→ 80,000→ 81,700 (365-day moving average, confirming key new bull market level)
Support levels: 76,000-76,500 (three tests unbroken) → 75,000-74,400 → 70,000 (200-day moving average)
The bullish and bearish showdowns are up to you
On one side:
76,000 failed to break three times, so whales bought near 79,000
Long-term on-chain holders have high supply, with 33% of supply dormant
ETF cumulative net inflows reached 55 billion+, with a solid institutional foundation
The 50/200 daily moving average has a golden cross, and the medium-term structure remains intact
On one side:
The probability of an FOMC rate hike is 88%, with hawkish expectations suppressed
ETFs have seen a continuous net outflow of 460 million, indicating cautious short-term funds
Double top + channel breakdown, technically bearish
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5%, putting pressure on risk assets
Operational strategy
Short-term players:
Before FOMC, light positions sell high and buy low—light positions near 76,500, test long positions, stop loss at 75,800; If resistance between 78,000-78,500, test short, stop loss at 78,800. After rate hikes, if volume increases and breaks through 80,000, chase long at 81,700; If below 76,000, reduce positions at 74,400.
Swing traders:
Wait for FOMC to be confirmed + daily closing confirmation direction before moving again. Hold 76,000 and rebound on high volume→ enter on the right, targeting 80,000-81,700. Break below 76,000 and → with increased volume turning bearish, 74,400-70,000.
Long-term believers:
Below 76,000, staggered regular investment is between 70,000 and 74,400 is a golden pit. The halving cycle + institutional adoption logic remains unchanged; the year-end 2026 target is 100,000+.
BTC is currently fluctuating like the 2024 ETF approval—
99% of people were so scared by the FOMC that they dared not move, and after the rate hike took effect, it jumped directly from 60,000 to 90,000.
On the day 76,000 is held, you'll notice:
It turns out it's not that BTC is bad, but that you get scared off every night before the FOMC.
At 76,600, do you dare to buy the bottom?
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