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Cato_KT
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简单看一下周一的 #Bitcoin 走势与数据，ETF数据还未更新，但是加密市场主流资金USDC 市值再次减少2亿，还是出现了轻微净流出
回归盘面，周一的下跌让4小时MA200趋势线再次承压，虽然暂时企稳反弹，但是反弹明显较弱，结合加密资金净流出的情况来看，显然目前的反弹并不能100%确定支撑有效，更像是市场在谨慎观望下出现的技术性反弹
所以，在暂时没有 #BTC ETF数据的前提下，还是要相对谨慎，上周五ETF虽然回流但是幅度较低，回流偏弱，本周宏观环境处于能源+高收益率双重高压环境，接下来的突破还是要依赖CPI 数据作为转折点
另外，如果风险市场无法摆脱高油价+高长债收益率的不良环境，金融流动性紧缩下资金可能会更加倾向买入强势财报的美股，BTC缺乏核心叙事推动可能会在近期弱于美股
当然，大趋势上依旧保持乐观，如果真的跌破4小时MA200 继续回调，我认为就是给了一个不错的上车机会，下一次的行情启动，就是另一个趋势的开始！#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
Cato_KT
#Bitcoin After experiencing this week's capital outflow and adjustment, the current trend is actually not pessimistic; the trend is still above the 4-hour trend line, so it is not weak.
Of course, since the data is not cooperating, the short-term market cannot be too optimistic. Short-term long positions still carry significant risk, so caution is needed in operations.
Moreover, if you pay attention to the subsequent capital outflow from the crypto market and ETFs, but the market shows a small-scale rebound divergence, you need to be especially wary of a bull trap.
In terms of trend, I remain optimistic about the future movement. From the current trend, once this pullback stabilizes, it will be a very good opportunity to enter.
Returning to the market, if capital continues to flow out and the market pulls back in the next 2-3 weeks, attention should be paid to whether the 68,000–70,000 range can become a turning point for the pullback. Besides the market, watch whether capital stops net outflow or continues net inflow; these are all indicators for judgment.
When the macro side improves, U.S. Treasury yields stop rising continuously and stabilize with fluctuations, and #BTC price stabilizes, then the stage turning point will be observed. The next rally may be the true start of the new trend's right side, provided the price returns to around 68,000. Chips bought between February and April this year will not be sold further! #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
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