匿光｜Arcana
匿光｜Arcana
5年加密货币交易经验，长期持有OKB BTC，单币A7持有者，meme黑马猎手，区块链上信息搜寻者，对该行业长期看好，未来依旧是普通人最好的翻身机会。
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Are there truly centralized exchanges?
Openness, transparency, and inclusiveness might be the core driving forces behind HYPE's counter-trend growth.
After 1011, I elevated HYPE to the level of a top-tier asset allocation. I'm not the only one gradually losing patience with CEX; many people around me have experienced similar changes.
Especially for Chinese-language CEXs, it seems they are falling into an ultimate competition over a fixed market share.
Whether it's debates on X or discussions in various forums, exchanges, market makers, and project teams—anyone involved in the Chinese crypto community—seems hard to avoid various negative evaluations.
When the incremental market is insufficient to support everyone's ambitions, competition gradually shifts from vying for new users to fighting over existing funds, traffic, and influence.
Among the top ten coins by growth, the altcoin I dare to build a position in spot trading is only $PYTH — definitely an underestimated dark horse!
Why am I so confident? Several solid reasons:
1. PythDAO just decided: 100% of product revenue will be used for buybacks. That means buying as much as it earns, with revenue continuously rising, the price will take off accordingly.
2. It is the oracle leader in the SOL ecosystem, and the recent wealth effect on the mainnet has directly crushed Ethereum.
3. Institutions have been genuinely buying with real money recently; ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) has already reached $11 million, performance guaranteed, not just empty talk.
4. The weekly chart makes it clearer: the bottom has been accumulating for quite a long time, now volume is warming up, and the price is starting to climb — this script is almost identical to pepe's pattern before takeoff.
$STRK dropped 99%. The airdrop was once so popular, now it's just as miserable. Dropping 99% basically means it's almost worthless. I don't need to say how many people got trapped.
Then suddenly they said they want to transform into an L1, no longer being Ethereum's little brother, and it surged more than 4 times.
Looking at the weekly chart, 0.618 is around 0.18u, previous high at 0.28u. The long-short ratio is abnormally skewed with more short accounts; with this structure, the probability of going straight down is low.
Most likely it will fluctuate repeatedly within the range, shaking out both longs and shorts first.
If you're trading contracts, take profits quickly and run, don't be ambitious. This coin isn't suitable for big ambitions. Set your take profit and stop loss properly, that's better than anything else.
The Dogecoin ETF is basically completely dead
Bitwise's DOGE spot ETF didn't even last a year after listing, and it is set to stop trading after October 14. The fund size has shrunk to only $720,000, and the entire trading volume in September was just $50,000. With liquidity dried up like this, why keep it open?
Even their own CEO helplessly said he holds Dogecoin, but the traditional ETF investors just won't buy it. To put it bluntly, retail DOGE players aren't going to pay management fees in a regulated structure, and traditional institutional investors don't understand the grassroots MEME coin. A product that pleases neither side can only end in a dismal failure.
Currently, because BTC is at a strong resistance level, the market's backbone remains intact, so many coins have not experienced particularly large or outrageous pullbacks.
The real pullback will come unexpectedly in the early morning.
The coins you need to pay attention to may only be these few.
1 HYPE, the absolute leader in this round, with an unshakable position on-chain exchange. The only platform that can legally avoid taxes, which is a significant advantage in the US.
2 BNB, without a doubt, this is a stock you can buy for long-term holding. Binance values it, CZ signals it, and the top influencer supports it. Continuous buybacks and burns. Just treat it as a quality stock.
3 UNI, many coin-stock transactions must go through UNI, especially transactions on the Robinhood chain, which rely on its aggregation. The Robinhood chain will definitely have moves in the bull market.
4 SOL, its ecosystem coins clearly have capital backing. The gains are considerable. Undoubtedly, SOL and its ecosystem deserve serious research. The trading aggregator RAY is a very worthwhile target for pullback buying.
Strong altcoins have already pulled back 20%, and half of the altcoins are close to hitting historical lows.
The key is, only a few can still rise now.
There was little money to begin with, and some has to be allocated to US stocks, so the remaining funds are no longer rushed around; they specifically pick projects that have token burns, cash flow, and real utility.
Like $HYPE, $UNI, $AAVE.
So it's not that there's no market, it's that there's less money, and investors are becoming more selective about coins!!!
U.S. stocks hit new highs, Bitcoin failed to break through $87,000 for the third time
Since September 23, Bitcoin has attempted to reach around $87,000 for the third time but was pushed back again. Binance spot is currently at 85,598, down 0.3% in 24 hours, with a high of only 86,699.
What’s more disheartening is that this year’s opening price was 87,570. More than nine months have passed, and Bitcoin is still below that line from the beginning of the year. Several rebounds this year have stalled here.
At the same time, the Nasdaq closed at a new high again; stocks are rising, but crypto hasn’t kept up. Analysts say the price has been squeezed to the tip of a triangle, with sellers consistently present above 87,000. Regardless of which side it breaks next, the volatility won’t remain this low for long.
I will hold my spot positions and wait for a real breakout before adding more; I won’t chase this move.
The net inflow of the US spot $BTC ETF reached $6.34 billion in the third quarter, compared to a net outflow of about $5 billion in the second quarter, completing a reversal of over $11 billion in funds within one quarter.
But what I find most worth noting in this news is not the large figure of "$6.34 billion," but that the momentum of funds is slowing down: inflows in August were about $3.52 billion, dropping to about $2.65 billion in September, and there was even a single-day net outflow of about $149 million at the end of September.
So the real question for Q4 is not "whether institutions are buying BTC," but: can institutional funds continue to accelerate? If ETF inflows continue to cool down, can BTC still break above 87,000 relying on its own funds?
Just over a month after listing, ZEC's ETF had $93.56 million withdrawn 😬
Last Friday's five trading days saw net outflows on four days, the first time since its listing.
It wasn't like this two weeks ago. The week of 9/14 saw net inflows of $98.2 million. The trend changed faster than flipping a page.
Grayscale's ZCSH fund shrank from $1 billion to $750 million, partly due to redemptions and partly because of the coin price drop, which I can't separate. ZEC surged to 1699 on 9/26, now at 1319, 22% below the peak.
Why the run? I haven't found any official explanation, so don't take it as me knowing. My own feeling: when it's hot, everyone rushes in; once the trend shifts, they run faster than anyone else. Purely personal thoughts.
Blast shutdown, another star L2 has cooled off.
This project was once the most popular Layer 2 network on Ethereum, with a peak locked value of over two billion dollars, but it has crashed from its high point to nearly zero assets now. The project team simply announced they are quitting — the reason is straightforward: the cost of maintaining the network has exceeded the money it earns.
This signal is quite cold: the L2 track is undergoing a brutal reshuffle. In the past two years, many L2s raised money and users under the banner of "high throughput, low Gas," but now that the tide has receded, projects without real users and real income cannot survive. Money and attention will increasingly concentrate on the top — Arbitrum, Base can still hold on, but small L2s relying on airdrop expectations and subsidy burn will die off in batches.
For the crypto world, this is actually a good thing. The bubble is clearing out, and only the survivors are the strong ones. ETH, as the underlying settlement layer, is actually more stable, and L2 funds ultimately have to flow back to the main chain.
My judgment is very clear: in the short term, avoid tail-end L2 tokens that rely on subsidies to survive, as the risks far outweigh the opportunities; in the long term, the L2 reshuffle is beneficial to the Ethereum ecosystem, and funds will become more focused. Now BTC is steadily holding around $85,000, and the certainty of Bitcoin leaves these gimmicky projects far behind.