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Some public chains and projects have been shutting down intermittently, and BTC also tested 80,000 yesterday. Overall liquidity in crypto has actually been decreasing. But a very clear trend is that RWA's share of trading volume in crypto is growing larger, and major CEXs have all entered the space. Checking the top trading volumes on major CEXs, you can see the presence of RWA US stocks. This is one of the reasons why @okxchinese #outcomes S3 focuses on finance. Besides guiding and training you to become a crypto player, it also helps you become a multi-talented US stock trader. Moreover, this process is completely free, accompanied by multiple supporting reward activities throughout S3. In addition to prediction positions and trade sharing, there is also the combo winning streak event under Aibo @misaENFP. You can check out Misa's write-up, which is super clear and detailed ⤵️ So, during earnings season, analysis and prediction should not stop. This is one reason I always recommend everyone to seriously participate in S3 — to follow industry trends, continuously learn and evolve with the market, and grab some easy profits along the way. Let's talk about Netflix $NFLX earnings predictions. After checking various prediction markets, I think there is an opportunity for information arbitrage and data update lag here. The current benchmark in prediction markets is $0.84 per share, which is actually Netflix's guidance from July. However!! The latest guidance from Netflix has been lowered to $0.82~ Netflix's guidance has historically been quite accurate, and in most cases, the actual EPS reported is slightly higher than the guidance. If the rule requires strictly greater than $0.84, the actual reported EPS needs to be ≥ $0.85 to count as Yes, about 3.7% higher than the guidance. The prediction essentially asks whether Netflix can beat its own guidance by at least $0.03 — based on the implied share count from the guidance, net profit needs to be about $3.56B, roughly $100M (+3%) more than the guidance, meaning operating margin would rise from 33.2% to about 34.2%, or be made up by tax rate/forex/buybacks. Bullish factors: content amortization slows down in the second half of the year (about +10% for the full year); guidance is usually conservative, Q2 slightly exceeded; stock price dropped to $67–80, buybacks could passively lift EPS; every 1pct lower tax rate adds about $0.01. Bearish factors: company states guidance is the internal real forecast, no deliberate suppression; severance for about 1,000 layoffs if counted in Q3 would directly lower GAAP EPS; revenue growth slows, low probability of EPS driven by outperformance. Probability split: operating margin reaching 34%+ about 30–35%; 33.5–34% supplemented by tax rate/forex/buybacks about 10%. Overall diluted EPS about 40–45%, most likely result $0.83–0.84; basic EPS settlement raises it to about 55%. Conclusion: baseline expectation $0.83–0.84, probability of exceeding $0.84 less than half. On earnings day, watch two points: whether operating margin exceeds 34%, and whether there is a one-time layoff expense; also confirm settlement basis. Based on this calculation, I would go all in on NO. #OKXExperts #TradeTradFiComeToOKX #OKXUSStockEarningsSeason

Our Prophet S3 is officially here! Misa is tapping the blackboard, let's highlight the key points together. Many people don't have the habit of reading the manual, so they can't play well. Spend a little time to finish reading this article, and you'll get twice the result with half the effort~ 🏆 Total prize pool $250,000 📅 Event lasts until November 15th 00:00 First, let's talk about what's slightly different this time compared to before: This time, no manual registration is needed; eligible users will be automatically enrolled, and Welcome XP will be credited automatically. At the same time, we've added an independent weekly leaderboard for earnings season and ExchangeOS on-chain spot and perpetual experience tasks. GW2 and GW3 will also distinguish between PnL leaderboard and PnL% leaderboard, so this time it's not just about who has more XP, but more importantly how to use XP well to generate positive returns. 🌟 How to participate this season? Open the latest OKX App and go to Planet - Outcomes Eligible new users will receive 200 XP, and existing users will get random Welcome XP. It may take some time to arrive; just check the XP icon at the top right or the Earn XP page~ XP is free event points, no real money investment is required, and it cannot be purchased, transferred, or withdrawn. After the season ends, it will be handled uniformly according to the rules. 🌟 How are rewards distributed? There are several sets of leaderboards this season, calculated and rewarded separately: Season main leaderboard: Top 5,000 by PnL, prize pool $60,000 GW1: Top 5,000 by PnL, prize pool $30,000 GW2: Top 3,000 by PnL and top 100 by PnL%, prize pool $30,000 GW3: Top 3,000 by PnL and top 100 by PnL%, prize pool $30,000 Earnings season W1–W4: Weekly independent PnL leaderboard, top 3,000 each week, weekly prize pool $25,000 GW1 runs from October 15th 10:00 to October 22nd 10:00; GW2 and GW3 switch every Thursday at 10:00. Note: XP earned from tasks is your ammunition, but the leaderboard core looks at trading PnL. External inflows like task XP and referral XP will be deducted when calculating PnL. Simply put, having more XP does not guarantee a high ranking; positive returns are still required. PnL not greater than 0 cannot earn corresponding leaderboard rewards. 🌟 What are we playing this week? 1. Will Tesla's earnings this quarter exceed expectations? Expected settlement: October 22nd 04:05 Earnings date, fiscal quarter, and consensus data will be verified again before launch according to company IR. 2. Midterm elections: Which party will control the House of Representatives? Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Settlement time may be delayed if official certification is used. 3. Midterm elections: Which party will control the Senate? Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Control in case of a tie and independent senators' caucus affiliation will be judged according to final market rules. 4. Midterm elections: Control combination of both chambers Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Including Republican sweep, Democratic sweep, Republican control of House and Democratic control of Senate, and the opposite combination. 5. Will Netflix's earnings this quarter exceed expectations? Expected settlement: October 21st 04:05 6. How many seats will Republicans win in the House? Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Settlement may be delayed awaiting official certification. 7. How many seats will Republicans win in the Senate? Expected determination: November 4th 20:00 Settlement may be delayed if runoffs or caucus affiliations are not confirmed. 8. Brazil presidential election: Who will win? Expected determination: October 26th 10:00 Based on the second-round election results on October 25th. 9. China's GDP: What is the year-on-year growth range for Q3? Expected settlement: October 19th 10:00 🌟 How to earn more XP? One-time tasks: New user Welcome XP: 200 XP Eligible new user first deposit: 200 XP Complete eligible first trade: 200 XP Invite valid new users: 300 XP each, up to 5 counted this season 🌟 Daily tasks: Accumulate at least 1 minute reading on Planet; remember to scroll the page, no slacking! Complete follow, like, or share Publish posts with at least 50 words, include position cards, and pass review If XP is below 100 and account assets reach 100 USDT equivalent, try to claim daily Refuel random XP Complete ExchangeOS daily spot or perpetual tasks and try to maintain 3, 5, or 7 consecutive days without interruption Earnings season also has separate popular topic posting tasks. Posts need to include earnings season topics, corresponding spot or contract position cards, and pass review. Up to 30 extra XP can be earned daily. 🤩 Misa's XP tips 1. Open the Earn XP page daily first to see the tasks for the day. Tasks reset at 00:00 daily; progress does not carry over. 2. Reading tasks require scrolling content to count as valid, not just opening the page for a minute. 3. When posting, try to meet two conditions at once: at least 50 words and include position cards, plus earnings season designated topics and corresponding position cards. If both ordinary position posting and earnings season popular topic requirements are met, rewards for both tasks can be granted. 4. Orbit ordinary daily tasks and earnings season posting tasks can stack; when eligible, up to 60 XP can be earned daily, but actual rewards are random and subject to weekly limits on task cards. 5. Invitations must use the exclusive invitation link in the event. Ordinary invitation links may not be correctly attributed. Friends must complete registration, join the event, and meet eligible first deposit to count as valid invitations. 6. When XP is close to 100, don't forget to check Refuel. If asset and account conditions are met, you can replenish once daily. 7. Earnings season designated events have independent weekly leaderboards and may also enter corresponding regular Gameweek leaderboards. When rules allow, the same performance can participate in two leaderboards. 8. Don't do high-leverage operations just for task XP. Understand the rules first and decide whether to proceed; don't disrupt your rhythm for small tasks. 🤓 Final reminder: Multi-accounting, volume wash, self-trading, manipulating low liquidity markets, or using scripts for arbitrage are prohibited. Having little XP is not scary, but if your account is banned, you can't participate anymore~ OKX Planet Prophet S3, see you on Misa's leaderboard 🖤