还是那个王先生
还是那个王先生
星球创作者📝 | 合约爆仓常客💥 | 多币种持有者💎 | 无情交易员❄️
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Mr. Wang Talks Crypto | 2026.10.16
Today's Highlights: BTC is consolidating around 82.5k, ETH rebounded to 2,459, SOL returned to 105. Chainalysis says the U.S. will become a net inflow country for Bitcoin for the first time in 2026, indicating a shift in capital flow. $BTC Current BTC price is 82,512, up 0.11%, rebounded from 79,775 to 82,642. Chainalysis report states the U.S. will be a net inflow country for Bitcoin in 2026, signaling a shift in national-level capital flow. Resistance above at 82,596, support below at 82,111. Those looking to enter should wait for a pullback near 82,000 before moving, and exit if it breaks below 81,500. 📈 RSI6 reached 68, recovering well from oversold territory, but it's a bit hot short-term, wait for a correction before entering. $ETH Current ETH price is 2,459, up 0.75%, rebounded from 2,317 to 2,468. Charles Schwab manages $13.33 trillion in client assets and has launched Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, opening a channel for traditional brokerage giants. Resistance above at 2,467, support below at 2,441. Those looking to enter should wait for a pullback near 2,420 before moving, and exit if it breaks below 2,380. 😴 RSI6 is at 54, a neutral position; institutional channels are a long-term positive, wait for a pullback before entering. $SOL Current SOL price is 105.89, down 0.18%, rebounded from 100.56 to 106.54. Also affected by the news of Charles Schwab launching crypto trading.
The US September PPI exploded, year-on-year at 6.3%, while the market expected only 5.3%. The month-on-month 1.3% is more than double the expectation, and the core PPI also fully exceeded expectations. Coupled with the previous CPI surge to 3.7%, it's like two consecutive heavy meals—there's no sign of inflation cooling down.
As soon as the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in October jumped directly from 22% to 51%. Officials now say "not urgent" verbally, but the divergence is obvious. Harker said rates are still not restrictive enough, and inflation thinking is solidifying; Daly and Goolsbee say it's not urgent, but they haven't ruled it out either.
The real star is Waller. At 11:30 Beijing time on October 16, he will have a dialogue in Bangkok with IMF Managing Director Georgieva. This is his last public appearance before the October FOMC blackout period. The market is waiting for this one sentence—if he emphasizes that inflation is spreading and action is needed, the expectation for an October rate hike will immediately return; if he says to wait and see, the expectation of a pause will be confirmed.
$BTC here is suffocated by the inflation data, dropping from 84,000 all the way down below 81,000, falling more than 3% in 24 hours, with over 180,000 liquidations across the market. As rate hike expectations heat up, US Treasury yields surge, and zero-yield assets are the first to get hit. Whether the 80,000 level can hold depends on what Waller says tonight.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
TSMC's Q3 earnings exploded. Revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up 50.9% year-over-year; net profit was 763 billion, up 68.7% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record highs and fully exceeding expectations. Gross margin was 66.4%, net margin 51.1%, placing this profitability at a ceiling level in the global manufacturing industry.
The process structure is the most convincing. 2nm just started mass production and already contributed 8% of wafer revenue, 3nm accounted for 33%, 5nm 28%, and 7nm and below advanced processes combined accounted for 79%. AI chip demand is the core driver; Wei Zhejia directly stated at the earnings call that "all AI customers are cooperating with TSMC," whether it's GPUs or proxy AI CPUs, advanced processes are indispensable. TSMC $TSM has raised its capital expenditure to a record $64 billion this year, with market expectations for 2027 further revised upward to $85 to $90 billion.
$BTC tells a completely different story. US September CPI exceeded expectations, reigniting rate hike concerns, and $BTC was hammered from around 84,000 down below 81,000, dropping more than 3% in 24 hours, with over 180,000 liquidations across the market. The short-term support at 81,500 has already broken, with 80,000 as a hard support level below. Despite TSMC's strong AI-driven performance, funds will not flow into crypto; macro pressure remains the dominant factor for $BTC currently.
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
Mr. Wang says coin|2026.10.15
😂 Been busy all day today, just opened the app to check and wow, it's so rough... Today's key focus: $BTC, $ETH, $OKB ① $BTC | Current price 81301, peaked at 83941 early morning, lowest retraced to 80228, a sharp fluctuation of nearly 3700 dollars up and down, now back around 81301, down 0.42%. Trading volume 7826 coins, trading amount 640 million. STOCHRSI around 70, relatively high, price above the BOLL middle band at 81172, short-term is considered stable. 81000 is short-term support, today we'll see if it can hold; once it breaks below 80000, downside space opens up. I see short-term oscillation between 80000-84000, wait for a retracement to 80500-81000 to pay attention again, defense at 79500, upside expectation 83000-84000. ② $ETH | Current price 2373, early morning high touched 2521, lowest retraced to 2317, fluctuation over 200 dollars, dropped harder than BTC. Trading volume 189,400 coins, trading amount 457 million. STOCHRSI around 82, relatively high, price above BOLL middle band at 2368, short-term also stable. ETH dropped from 2806 all the way down to 2317, a significant drop, now oscillating between 2350-2400. Wait for a retracement to 2330-2350 to pay attention again, defense at 2280, upside expectation 2450-2500. ③ $OKB |
$OKB stands out alone while the market lies flat 👊
The market is lifeless, but OKB tonight stands out alone, pulling from 120 to 125.24, up nearly 3%, making it one of the strongest among mainstream coins. RSI6 surged to 76, the upper Bollinger band at 124.17 was left far behind, clearly overbought in the short term, but platform coins have their own rhythm.
Up 53.9% in 90 days, up 42% in 180 days, the long-term trend has always been good. This kind of independent rally is risky to chase high for fear of catching a falling knife, and shorting risks being proven wrong, so it’s better suited for slow dollar-cost averaging without short-term fuss. Don’t chase when it rises, add a bit when it falls, easy and steady.
It moves first when the market doesn’t, indicating there is capital making a separate play inside. Even better than $BTC and $ETH.
Brothers, do you hold OKB? For this independent market, should you keep holding or take profits first? Let’s chat in the comments.🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察
The US September CPI will be released tonight at 8:30 PM. The market expects overall inflation to jump from 3.4% to 3.6%-3.7%, mainly driven by energy, with gasoline prices rising more than 7% in one month. However, the core CPI is actually cooling down, with the month-on-month expectation dropping from 0.3% to 0.2%, and the year-on-year around 2.5%, indicating that price increases are basically concentrated in the energy sector and have not spread to other areas.
Recently, Williams and Collins have consecutively taken a hawkish stance, both saying there might be another rate hike within the year, but no one advocates for action in October. The probability of a rate hike in October is currently only about 23%, with the market betting on December. What can truly change this pricing is the core CPI. If the core month-on-month stays within 0.2%, the expectation of a pause will be more stable; if the core also exceeds expectations, then the probability of an October rate hike will have to be revised upward.
$BTC is now around 83,000, rebounding from just above 80,000. There likely won't be major moves before the data release tonight; the key is how US Treasury yields move afterward. If the core CPI holds steady and Treasury yields ease, Bitcoin will have a chance to test 85,000 again. If the core exceeds expectations, the 82,000 support will have to be tested again. #九月CPI今晚公布，美联储加息分歧待解
That time I lost so badly it hurt, I changed this rule
The biggest loss was early on when I heavily invested in an altcoin. The logic made sense, the technicals looked good, so I went in with half my position. But the project team suddenly ran away, liquidity was drained overnight, my principal was halved, and I didn't even get a chance to exit.
After that, I added a strict rule: the position in a single coin should never exceed 20% of total funds.
I used to think diversification was cowardly and diluted returns. Only after losing did I understand that the biggest risk in crypto isn't volatility, it's going to zero. $BTC will recover after a drop, but if an altcoin runs away, it's truly gone. Heavy investment in one asset is like entrusting your life to someone else.
Now, no matter how optimistic I am, whether it's $BTC, $ETH, or $OKB, I only allocate 20%. The rest is spread out in batches, across different assets and sectors. It earns slower, but I sleep well.
More importantly, my mindset changed: light positions are easier to hold. Heavy holders panic at any fluctuation, fear gains will be lost, fear losses will go to zero, and end up shaken out. Light holders can endure until the trend completes.
That halving loss taught me one thing: staying alive is more important than making fast profits. Have you ever been liquidated? Which rule did you change?
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
$TRUTH surged 29%, blowing up my short position, and now I want to short again 👊
TRUTH jumped straight from 0.015 to 0.0233 today, a 29.3% surge in one day, another crazy coin in the AI sector. My morning short was liquidated by this rally, just got schooled by the market. Watching it spike to 0.0233 then pull back, my hands are itching again, thinking about shorting once more.
RSI6 is back near 63, MACD red bars are shrinking, Bollinger upper band at 0.0239 is pressing down, signs of a pullback after the spike are indeed there. But the problem is, it’s up 60% in 7 days, 56% in 30 days, 85% in 90 days — the trend is clearly upward, shorting against the trend is fighting it.
Just got liquidated and still want to short again, that’s pure gambler’s mentality, gotta control my hands first. The previous high at 0.0233 is the stop-loss line, if it breaks, I’ll get liquidated again.
Brothers, do you still dare to short such a surging coin? I just got liquidated, should I try again? Roast me in the comments to wake me up.🙈#波动雷达：币种异动观察
Mr. Wang Talks Crypto｜2026.10.14
Today's key focus: $BTC, $ETH, $OKB ① $BTC | Current price 83807, peaked at 84130 early morning, lowest retracement at 82907, a fluctuation of 1200 dollars up and down, now back near 83807, up 0.49%. Trading volume 59,500 coins, trading amount 4.991 billion. STOCHRSI around 38, price hovering near the BOLL middle band at 83857, direction unclear. Didn't break through 84000, resistance still above, but support at 83000. I see short-term oscillation between 83000-84000, wait for a retracement to 83200-83500 to pay attention again, defense at 82500, upper expectation 84500-85000. ② $ETH | Current price 2517, highest touched 2537 early morning, lowest retracement 2487, fluctuation of 50 dollars, steadier than BTC. Trading volume 2.1 million coins, trading amount 5.311 billion. STOCHRSI around 33, price below BOLL middle band at 2617, trend weak. ETH dropped from 2806 to 2356 then rebounded to 2517, now oscillating below the middle band. Wait for a retracement to 2480-2500 to pay attention again, defense at 2420, upper expectation 2580-2620. ③ $OKB | Current price 122.86, yesterday's highest 123.75, lowest 120.58, about 3% fluctuation, now back near 122.86, up 1.47%. Trading volume 1