October 26, 2026 · Monday Fourth Quarter · Issue 110 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective At 8 a.m. this morning, BTC's second weekly candle closed below 83,000. My judgment is clear: this breakout is a false breakout, and there will be one last drop in Q4. BTC's low point will appear around December 10, near 60,000, just before or after the Federal Reserve's rate decision; gold will bottom and rebound before BTC, while silver is the weakest. Below is the full script, timeline, and key levels. 01｜Why is the false breakout confirmed? 83,000 is the May high. One weekly candle closing below this can be considered a pullback; two consecutive ones confirm falsification. The current price is about 80,000, and the daily chart has also broken below the 50-day moving average (around 81,700). Historically, several false breakouts cleared quickly. In 2015 and 2020, it took only two to three weeks from the second weekly candle break to the bottom. So the upcoming move will not be a slow decline but a concentrated, rapid drop. Another signal: Nasdaq, S&P, Dow Jones, ETH, and altcoin total market cap have all retested the bull market support zone; BTC is the last one not yet tested. I don't think it will be an exception. 02｜Macro is pushing in the same direction The Federal Reserve will hold steady this week, with the market pricing in about 94%, so the real focus is the wording about December in the statement. If the September PCE is hotter than expected, the market will confirm: there will be another rate hike in December. The 10-year US Treasury yield is now about 4.99%; I believe it will return to 5.3% then; Brent crude oil original

Saturday, October 17, 2026 · Q4 · Issue 109 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective Long time no update. After these days of analysis and review, I believe: According to the four-year cycle pattern, BTC has indeed entered the bear market bottom time window, which will last until late November. However, the price this round does not match historical patterns, so this window may not bring new lows. In the next week or two, just watch the weekly close at $83,000. Before it gives an answer, I won't bet on direction, only prepare trading strategies for two possible outcomes in advance. 01｜The time window has already opened There are two commonly used measures to estimate the bear market bottom time. The first is counting from the bull market peak. The previous three cycles took 406 days, 363 days, and 376 days respectively from peak to bottom. This cycle's peak was on October 6, 2025, so the window is from October 4 to November 16, 2026. Today is the 376th day after the peak. The second is counting backward from the next halving. The previous three bottoms appeared 542 days, 513 days, and 516 days before the halving. The next halving is around April 2028, so counting backward, the window is from October 16 to November 24. The two measures overlap from mid-October to mid-November. Counting from the November 2022 bottom, the previous two cycles bottomed on the 1432nd and 1436th days respectively, which corresponds to October 23 to 27 this cycle, also within this period. These patterns are not

Saturday, September 26, 2026 | Q3 · Issue 108 Aspirin · Cycle Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective Here's the conclusion first: I was wrong about this market cycle. I previously thought BTC would struggle to break the May high and that a new low was likely in Q4. Now, the first judgment has been invalidated by price, and the second needs to be reassessed. To those who followed my calls, referenced my analysis, or have trusted me, I apologize. Where was I wrong? I want to clarify. I treated macro pressure as a definite downward path and underestimated the possibility of an upward breakout. Even after price signaled otherwise, I did not promptly reduce my confidence in the original judgment. Legislative setbacks, hawkish statements, US and Japan rate hikes, shipping disruptions pushing energy prices higher—these bearish factors did occur. But I won't excuse myself by saying "the macro view was right, the market just hasn't reacted yet." Whether the macro judgment is correct must ultimately be tested by price, credit, and capital behavior. Spotting a few news items correctly doesn't mean understanding how they impact assets. Even if a decline happens later, it won't prove I was wrong at the time, because the breakout has already occurred, and those who followed my judgment have already borne the cost of this market phase. On September 23, I wrote "No longer presuming a new low in Q4." This article takes it a step further: explaining what happened during this period, how I understood it then, and what needs to be revised. My current stance is to respect the breakout that has occurred and no longer presume a top. Whether the May high can hold this week will determine if this stance needs further adjustment. 1. Benefits

Aspirin · Cycle Lab｜2026.09.13 I currently still interpret this market cycle as a correction within a bear market, rather than a confirmed new bull market. However, signs of a bottom do exist, and one should not ignore evidence on the other side just because of a bearish bias. 1. Why we cannot easily dismiss the bulls The weekly RSI previously dropped to about 26, then showed a higher low. This kind of change indicates that the downward momentum is weakening, but whether the price has bottomed still requires separate judgment. The monthly RSI is close to the low range seen in past bear markets, and the proportion of long-term holders has risen and stabilized, which also supports the possibility that the market is entering a bottoming phase. The daily golden cross means the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, and recent price performance has improved. However, moving averages reflect past prices over a period, and a golden cross is not a guarantee of future gains. I acknowledge these changes. They are enough to make me cautious about further declines, but not enough to conclude that the correction is over. 2. Why I remain cautious On-chain valuation has not yet fully reproduced the extreme states seen in previous bear markets. The MVRV Z-Score low in this cycle is about 0.18, not yet below 0; the Puell Multiple has not fallen below the historical low reference line of 0.4. This only indicates that the market has not reached some historically extreme undervaluation levels, and does not prove that prices must continue to fall. Bottoms in different cycles are not obligated to fall at the same indicator levels. By contrast, I place more importance on whether price and capital can mutually confirm each other. 50-week moving average