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At 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow night, the September CPI will be released. But there is one thing more worth your caution than the data itself: Wall Street has already decided "how to interpret this data" in advance. The overall CPI month-on-month surged from 0.4% to 0.6%, the largest increase in five months. Oil prices hit $110, and Brent has not calmed down since the day the Houthi forces attacked Riyadh airport. Sounds scary? Don't rush. Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, and Mitsubishi UFJ are highly consistent: "The rise in oil prices has not caused broad inflation, just look at the core CPI." Deutsche Bank has already lowered the core CPI month-on-month expectation to 0.16%, the lowest on Wall Street. Morgan Stanley's highest forecast is only 0.21%. The median of institutional forecasts is 0.21%. Overall 0.58%, core 0.21%. A tale of two extremes. The narrative has been written in advance: energy is noise, core is the signal. The Fed has room to remain patient. This logic is sound. But it is also the biggest trap tomorrow night. Three deviations, three scenarios The direction of the core CPI month-on-month deviation from 0.2% will determine the fate of all risk assets in the next two weeks. 0.2% realized — The Fed is "not in a hurry," not "stopping." The probability of a rate hike in October is now only about 20%, but still above 70% in December. Inflation has been below target for 65 months; the five-year account is not settled, and the market will not turn the page just because one month's data looks good. 0.3% — Re-discussion. Core hasn't come down; inflation is more resilient than expected. The probability of an October rate hike jumps from 20%, and BTC's support near 80000 will be tested again. 0.4% — Direct re-pricing. The market currently prices only a 20% chance of an October hike; if core explodes to 0.4%, how high will that number jump? Refer to the level before last week's nonfarm payrolls — over 65%. BTC will break down from 83000 through 80000, with the next defense line at 75000. But the real risk is not in the data itself, but in positions. The market has already priced in the "moderate core CPI" expectation. The October hike probability fell from 70% to 20%, during which BTC rebounded from 75000 to 83000. If core CPI really meets expectations, do you think the market will rise or fall? The answer might be: no rise, even a slight drop. Because the good news is already priced in. What not to do tomorrow night First, don't trade based on the overall CPI 0.6%. This number is lagging information; oil prices already rose in September. Brent has fallen from $110 to around $103, and the marginal push of energy on inflation is waning. The market knows this before you. Second, don't heavily bet on direction before the data comes out. The difference between core CPI 0.2% and 0.3% is only 0.1 percentage points, but for BTC it could mean the difference between 80000 and 75000. A 0.1% deviation, 5% price fluctuation. This bet is not worth it. Third, watch the 10-year US Treasury yield. Last week yields fell to 5.19%, and the 30-year to 5.55%. If yields fall rather than rise after the CPI data, it means the market is telling you: inflation is not a problem. If yields rise again, no matter how good the data looks, risk assets will be under pressure. The long-term logic hasn't changed. BTC's 365-day moving average has already been broken through, which historically signals the end of a weak market cycle. But that doesn't mean it won't drop first tomorrow night. The data hasn't come out yet, but the narrative has. When everyone is focused on the core CPI 0.2%, the real risk is precisely — expectations are too optimistic, and the market has no extra bullets to fulfill this optimism. See you at 20:30 tomorrow night. $BTC $XAU $BZ #9月CPI公布在即，哈玛克称仍需进一步加息