Prices have risen, but money is relocating
Looking again at the money. $ETH holdings saw a net outflow of 669 million USD over 7 days; on 10/09, the day of the sell-off, 397 million USD exited in a single day, and on 10/13 another 271 million USD left. The strange thing is that on 10/13 the price rose by 4%, yet money flowed out: the rise was not driven by new long positions entering, but by shorts buying back to close positions and exiting themselves. The rebound from covering shorts is quick but lacks strength; whether it can upgrade to a true rally depends on whether new money takes over after breaking through the 2,586 level. The daily average funding rate is 0.0006%, approximately zero; longs are not crowded out, this position is not congested, and the upward space is made available by shorts.
Earnings reports opening, CPI on the way
A quick note on external movements. On Monday, the Dow Jones rose 0.38%, the S&P and Nasdaq slightly fell, appearing calm; A-shares declined on low volume, with the Shanghai Composite at 3,797 down 0.43%, and the ChiNext index pressed down 2.61%; Hong Kong stock futures also remained flat overnight. The world is waiting for two events: earnings reports from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on 10/13, and the CPI release on 10/14. Cleveland Fed's Harnack is still calling for rates to continue rising, the hawkish tone remains. The crypto market itself is not doing well either; spot ETFs saw outflows last week, after absorbing 1.7 billion USD in late September, activity has basically stalled, and sentiment is stuck in the fear zone. Don’t pretend to be a hero in front of the data wall; keep positions low and hold half overnight before the CPI release.
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