#US10YearYieldBreaks5%

The Fed just ended three years of stillness. First hike since July 2023. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25bps, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Chair Warsh said inflation is "too high and has been for too long." The market had largely priced it in, with hike odds near 93% by decision day after hot August inflation data helped flip expectations. But the hike itself is not the story. The dot plot is. The new median dot implies one more 25bps hike before year-end, putting December firmly in play. The updated projections: · PCE inflation is now seen at 3.7% for end-2026, up from 3.6% in June · Core PCE rose to 3.4%, and the Fed does not expect inflation back at 2% until 2029 · Unemployment was revised down to 4.1%, while 2026 GDP growth moved up to 2.3% · The longer-run fed funds rate projection rose to 3.2%, keeping higher-for-longer in the frame Behind the inflation problem is an energy shock tied to the Iran conflict, with oil back above $100 and diesel prices elevated. The White House wants lower rates. The Fed delivered the opposite. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% before the decision, then pulled back toward 4.96%. In H1 2026, US spot BTC ETFs saw about $5.4B in net outflows as BTC fell from the mid-$90K area in January to the low-$60K area in May. The CLARITY Act also failed its Senate cloture vote 49-50 one day before the Fed, pulling a key regulatory catalyst off the table. Bitcoin briefly popped after the announcement, then gave the move back. Nobody heard a Fed that thinks the job is finished. Warsh also avoided committing to a fixed path, keeping the next move data-dependent. The Q4 setup: rates higher, oil elevated, yields near 5%, ETF demand fragile and regulatory progress stalled. That is not an easy soft-landing setup. Which matters more for BTC into Q4: the dot plot, ETF flows, or regulatory uncertainty? #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23

$BTC is facing a very different test this week. The Fed is expected to make its policy decision while oil prices have surged above $100 and Treasury yields have moved higher. That's not exactly the perfect environment for risk assets. And yet Bitcoin is still holding around the upper-$70K area. That's what I'm watching. Not whether someone predicts $80K or $70K. I want to see how BTC behaves when the macro environment becomes uncomfortable. If Bitcoin can absorb stronger yields, a stronger dollar and geopolitical pressure without completely losing its structure, that's meaningful. The reaction matters more than the headline. #US10YearYieldBreaks5% #RobinhoodTokenNewRights #US10YearYieldBreaks5%

#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 The Fed finally moved again, raising rates by 25bps to 3.75%–4.00% after five straight holds 🏛️ What caught my attention wasn’t the hike itself, but the dot plot: 16 of 18 officials now expect at least one more increase before the end of 2026. That makes this feel less like a one-off adjustment and more like the possible start of another tightening phase. The market reaction was telling. The Dow dropped over 600 points, while the Nasdaq stayed nearly flat. With the 10-year yield above 5%, expensive assets still have a difficult backdrop 📉 There’s also a clear gap between the Fed and the White House, which continues to push for lower rates. To me, the next inflation reports matter more than the political noise. Will they reinforce the Fed’s stance—or make this hike look overly cautious?

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced at 2:00 AM tonight. Will it be a waterfall drop? Or is it fully priced in? My view is as follows ↓ Currently, the probability of a rate hike is over 90% + US Treasury yields breaking 5%. The rate hike itself is no longer the focus; the key is the dot plot — Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank both expect a hawkish bias, and the dot plot may show two more hikes this year. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49

🚨BREAKING🚨 Global bond yields are exploding. Markets are feeling it. • US 10Y: 5% (highest since 2007) • UK 10Y: 5.4% (highest since 2007) • Japan 10Y: 3% (highest since 1996) • US 30Y: 5.4% (highest since 2004) • France 10Y: 4.5% (highest since 2008) • Germany 10Y: 3.5% (highest since 2009) Meanwhile: 👇 - Bitcoin falls below $77,000 - Ethereum loses $2,500 $90B wiped from crypto in just 12 hours

#10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5% The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has surpassed 5.02%, reaching the highest level since 2007. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged again, standing above 5.02%, setting a new high since 2007, as the global bond market faces continuous sell-offs.

STOCKS RISE AS YIELDS RETREAT AHEAD OF FED Global stocks moved higher ahead of today’s Fed rate decision, with markets pricing more than a 90% chance of a 25bp hike. The S&P 500 gained 0.26% and Nasdaq 0.60%, while the 10-year Treasury yield retreated to 4.963%. Oil also cooled, with Brent falling 2.4% to $106. Market angle: attention now shifts entirely to Kevin Warsh’s guidance on future hikes. $CL

#US10YearYieldBreaks5% The market just got a 5% alternative to taking risk 👀 The US 10-year briefly crossed 5% as $100+ oil, Fed hike bets, Treasury supply and AI financing all pushed yields higher. At these levels, stocks and crypto must compete harder for every dollar. What caught my attention is BTC holding up anyway. If Bitcoin can stay resilient while risk-free yields hover near 5%, that may tell us more about underlying demand than another rally in easy liquidity.

🚨 THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN MODERN U.S. HISTORY. In 2026, five separate economic thresholds were all hit within the same calendar year, for the first time in the data going back decades. The US 10-year Treasury yield traded above 5%. Gold hit a record $5,595.47 an ounce, back in January. Headline CPI inflation hit 3.4% through August, well above the Fed's 2% target. The 30-year mortgage rate crossed 7%, reaching 7.17%. WTI oil traded above $100. Every prior candidate year fails at least two of these five conditions. In 2008, oil, inflation, and gold all hit their marks, but the 10-year yield only reached 4.27%, and mortgage rates stayed under 7%. In 2011, oil, inflation, and gold hit, but rates and mortgages stayed low. In 2022, oil, inflation, and mortgage rates hit 7%, but the 10-year yield stayed under 5%, and gold set no new record that year. 2026 is the first year on record where all five conditions were met. These five events did not all happen at the same exact moment. Gold's record came in January. The rate and mortgage thresholds came in September. But all five happened within the same calendar year, and no prior year in the data matches that. Rising oil pushed inflation higher. The Dallas Fed's own research shows mortgage rates respond far more to the 10-year Treasury yield than to the Fed's own rate, an 85% response versus under 20%. So the same oil shock that pushed inflation up also pushed Treasury yields up, and that alone dragged mortgage rates over 7% at the same time gold investors were paying record prices for protection against exactly this kind of uncertainty.

In the past decade, Bitcoin told its story through the "halving cycle."\n\nIn the next decade, Bitcoin will tell its story through the "fiat credit collapse."\n\nAnd today,\n\nThe US 10-year Treasury yield has broken 5%, the last time was in 2007.\n\nThe Japanese 10-year government bond yield has broken 3%, the last time was in 1996.\n\nThe US and Japanese bond markets are handing the script directly to $BTC.\n\nThe question is: can you endure the darkest moment before dawn?