夏木KRIS
夏木KRIS
全市场分析，不受局限 提供真正有价值的投资建议
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I have always been committed to sharing trading knowledge to help everyone avoid high-risk trades and investment scams. All guidance is completely free, with no charges. I do not belong to any company, organization, or platform, have no partners, no groups, and will never ask anyone to transfer money to me.
I always advise everyone to keep their money in their own accounts, learn independently, and make their own judgments. When the market declines, you can focus on coins with real projects and long-term value, buy rationally, and sell at the right time after reaching profit targets.
Sharing knowledge is done out of goodwill, with no expectation of return. Protecting your own funds is more important than anything else.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
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What supplements do super individuals need?
(Deep research version)
My combination is:
Anti-aging + High energy + Improve sleep quality + Build lean muscle strength
Basic foundation:
High-dose multivitamins
Fish oil Omega-3
D3 + K2
Nervous system & sleep:
Magnesium glycine
Anti-aging and antioxidant:
GlyNAC (NAC + Glycine) + Ergothioneine
Mitochondria & energy:
Coenzyme Q10 + PQQ
Brain & physical performance:
Creatine 5g
Core logic: supplement the foundation → antioxidant → repair mitochondria → enhance long-term energy and performance.
Also suitable for crypto community
$BTC $ZEC $QNT
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In the era of information transparency, is it really harder for financial crises to occur?
The reason past financial crises were easily brewed was largely due to slow information dissemination. Underdeveloped communication and low market transparency meant that information was held by only a few for a long time. Many risks could accumulate within the system for years, while most market participants remained unaware. By the time the problems truly surfaced, the market often had no time to react, panic spread rapidly, and it eventually evolved into a systemic crisis. Today's environment is completely different. Smartphones, the internet, and real-time information allow information to spread almost instantly worldwide. Macro data, policy changes, and market price fluctuations can all be captured by the market within seconds. Many localized risks are reacted to by the market before they have a chance to expand. From this perspective, the traditional type of financial crisis that relies on delayed information accumulation has indeed become harder to form. But things are not that simple. More information does not equal more understanding. When information spreads extremely fast, the market is also more easily surrounded by noise. True and false news mix, emotions spread faster, and market reactions are often amplified. Short-term panic, concentrated sell-offs, and instant liquidity contractions occur more frequently in modern markets. The early stage of the 2020 pandemic is a typical example. The U.S. stock market triggered four circuit breakers within just one month. It was not that the economic fundamentals suddenly collapsed within weeks, but that the market quickly formed a consensus panic under intensive information shocks. When everyone reacts in the same way simultaneously, market volatility is extremely amplified. A deeper problem actually comes from the increasing complexity of the financial system itself. The 2008 financial cri
U.S. tech stocks have indeed taken quite a hit this time.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 5.5% in a single week, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight consecutive trading days, accumulating a decline of 15.7%.
Among them, $MU Micron fell 14.6% in one week, $AMD dropped 13%, and even $NVDA Nvidia fell 6.6%.
Earlier, the market was frantically chasing AI, but now it’s starting to worry about how much the tech giants can actually earn back from such huge investments in the future.
Meanwhile, U.S. inflation has exceeded expectations, and oil prices remain high.
I’m not in a hurry to bottom-fish tech stocks for now, especially AI and semiconductor companies that have seen significant gains earlier. If chip stocks can’t stop falling next week, the Nasdaq may continue to decline.
#纳指100周跌5.5%，芯片股八连跌
This time, I'm planning to bottom-fish together with everyone.
I intend to buy in two rounds: the first is now, and I'll keep the remaining funds to cope with possible further declines.
Priority will be given to the two coins that were quite popular recently:
$UNI, $ZEC
If you want to bottom-fish some smaller market cap, more volatile altcoins, you can check out:
$PARTI, $ROBO, $KAT
This time, I don't plan to use all the funds at once; I'll build half the position first, and if the market continues to fall, I'll consider buying the second time.
Brent crude surged to $110
This time inflation is likely even harder to reduce!
Brent crude touched $110 intraday yesterday and closed at $109.86, while WTI crude also climbed back above $100. There are several direct reasons for this rise.
Saudi Arabia's energy transport route to the Red Sea's Yanbu port is threatened by missile attacks, and attacks near the Strait of Hormuz are increasing. Meanwhile, Russian refineries have been hit by drone attacks again, further intensifying supply concerns.
More notably, the International Energy Agency has agreed to release an additional over 20 million barrels of fuel, and the U.S. is also preparing to arrange up to 17 million barrels of crude oil swaps from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Earlier, U.S. CPI and PPI were already hot, and now oil prices have risen to this level, which is obviously bad news for inflation. If high oil prices persist, the Federal Reserve will find it even harder to ease rates comfortably, while companies will have to bear higher transportation and production costs.
In the short term, I remain cautious about the U.S. stock and crypto markets. If oil prices continue approaching $120, the market may need to readjust its expectations for interest rates.
$CL $BTC $XAU
#布伦特触及110美元，油轮遇袭加剧供应担忧
The $WLD mentioned earlier has finally shown a good performance today.
Currently, the price has returned to around $0.536, with a 24-hour increase of over 14%. The AI sector's performance is quite evident this time, with tokens like NEAR and INJ also experiencing significant gains, indicating that capital is refocusing on AI-related projects.
What makes WLD special is that it not only involves AI but also the World ID digital identity verification service.
As AI-generated content and AI Agents become more widespread, distinguishing between real humans and bots may become an important demand in the future.
However, in the short term, it still depends on whether capital can continue to flow in. The opportunity around $0.43 was mentioned before, and now the price has clearly rebounded. If it can break through $0.55 again, I still expect the next challenge to be $0.6.
$NEAR's performance today is quite outstanding.
The price has reached around $5.29, with a 24-hour increase of over 15%, and a rise of more than 100% in the past 30 days.
This round of NEAR's surge is somewhat different from the past, which was purely about speculating on public chain performance. Now the project is developing around NEAR Intents, chain abstraction, and AI Agent.
NEAR Intents allow users to complete cross-chain operations by expressing transaction intentions, without having to manage the transaction processes of different networks step by step themselves.
If this mechanism can attract more real users, its significance to the NEAR ecosystem will be much greater than simply increasing TPS.
However, NEAR had previously approached $6, then experienced a significant pullback. It has now returned to around $5.3, with a short-term focus on whether it can break through $5.5.
If it stabilizes again, there is still a chance to retest $6.
Today $APT rebounded to around $0.87, rising about 13% in 24 hours.
Besides the market capital inflow, there is a technical development worth noting. On October 15, Aptos announced that Block-STM v2 has been enabled by default on the mainnet.
This is an important upgrade to Aptos' parallel transaction execution technology, mainly improving the network's execution efficiency when processing a large number of transactions.
Aptos has always had a strong technical background, along with the advantages of the Move language and a high-performance public chain. But the biggest question the market had about APT in the past was whether these technical advantages could translate into enough real users and on-chain transactions.
So for this rise, I hope to see ecological data improve accordingly. The current price is already close to $0.9, and if it can break through, there is a chance for further short-term rebound
$ARB surged over 16% today
Finally, someone bought into the L2 sector!
$ARB rebounded to around $0.20 today, rising more than 16% in 24 hours, showing a very strong performance.
Recently, there have been several noteworthy developments in Arbitrum.
First, the USDG stablecoin has been natively deployed on Arbitrum, and DeFi protocols like Fluid, Morpho, and GMX have started supporting it.
Second, Arbitrum is attracting more capital and applications into its ecosystem through a stablecoin incentive program.
This could help increase usage on the Arbitrum network.
But one thing to distinguish: the development of the Arbitrum ecosystem does not necessarily mean the ARB token will benefit simultaneously.
ARB currently mainly serves governance functions, and the value transmission between network revenue and token holders remains a market consideration.
In the short term, $0.20 has been reclaimed.
If it can maintain above this level going forward, I will continue to watch the performance around $0.22
TSMC $TSM's Q3 financial report is indeed a bit astonishing
Revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, with net profit at NT$763.1 billion, up 68.7% year-on-year, setting a new historical record again.
Even more impressive is the gross margin of 66.4% and net margin of 51.1%. This means that for every 100 NT dollars of revenue TSMC earns, over 51 NT dollars become net profit.
Among this, the 3nm process contributed 33% of wafer revenue, and the 2nm process has already contributed 8%. Advanced processes are becoming TSMC's most important source of profit.
The Q4 revenue guidance is further raised to $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion, higher than Q3.
One of the most certain profitable segments in the AI industry now is probably manufacturing advanced chips for global tech giants.
$TSM #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
$META is expected to invest $130 billion to $145 billion in capital expenditure this year, mainly for AI infrastructure.
This scale is already quite astonishing.
But the difference between Meta and other AI companies is that it originally owns massive user entry points like Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads.
As long as AI can improve ad click-through rates and recommendation efficiency, there is a chance to directly increase revenue. The recently launched AI Agent product Muse has also started to see user growth. According to the latest reports, Muse's daily active users have exceeded 2 million, with a total of 3 million downloads.
However, Muse is still free at the moment, so user growth cannot yet be directly counted as revenue. I am relatively optimistic about $META's AI layout, but the current issue is no longer whether it can produce AI products, but whether profit growth can keep up after investing hundreds of billions of dollars annually.
#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期
