Brent crude briefly touched $99.22 during trading. BTC had just fallen from a high of 82,320 and is now fluctuating around $78,000.
This is not ordinary market volatility—it is a supply-side war pricing all risk assets.
On Tuesday, the U.S. military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, and Iran responded by firing 20 ballistic missiles at U.S. military targets inside Jordan. Then the Iranian Revolutionary Guard issued warnings to all tankers docked at Kuwait and Bahrain ports: all these ships were targets.
Explosions were heard on Khalq Island—Iran's largest oil export hub.
This is not a drill.
And your position may not be ready yet.
Current market situation:
BTC was trading between 77,000 and 79,000. Last week, it briefly touched 82,320, then was pulled down by oil prices and expectations of interest rate hikes.
Brent crude settled at $97.92, approaching 100 during the session. WTI closed near $94.
Goldman Sachs has raised its target price for Brent crude to $120. Note, this is not a "possibility"; it is a baseline scenario for "if shipping attacks continue to escalate."
High volatility is the only certainty.
Here are three scenarios, and you can compare them to your own position—
Scenario 1: Conflict continues to escalate (probability: not low)
Oil prices broke through $100. It's not about touching it, it's about standing still.
And then? Inflation expectations soared. Market bets on a rate hike in September have already risen from 58%. For every $10 increase in oil prices, U.S. CPI contributes 0.3-0.4 percentage points more.
How will BTC move? Test 75,000, even 72,000.
The 75,000–76,000 support range is the most important technical support range. If it breaks below on high volume—don't fantasize about a V-shaped rebound; first think about where your stop loss is.
A sharp question: Can your position withstand another 5% drop in BTC?
Scenario 2: Conflict Reaches a Stalemate (Probability: Max)
Oil prices fluctuated between 95 and 100 dollars. No fighting, no negotiations, just dragging things out.
The market will gradually digest this "new normal." Inflation expectations are not falling, but they are not exploding. BTC has repeatedly bottomed out between 75,000 and 80,000.
This scenario is the most exhausting. It won't cause you to liquidate your position, but it will wear you down repeatedly through "bottom-fishing, getting trapped, and cutting losses."
There will be a temporary rebound—for example, when oil prices fall from 99 to 95, BTC might rebound above 80,000. But don't expect a trendy rally.
In such a market, frequent trading is the biggest way to commit suicide.
Scenario 3: Unexpected ceasefire or relegation (probability: lowest, but highest odds)
If both sides suddenly return to the negotiating table, or if Iran's export capabilities are not substantially destroyed—
Brent crude quickly fell below $90. Expectations for rate hikes cooled. BTC rebounded violently to $82,000–85,000.
Note another set of Goldman Sachs data: if Middle East exports return to normal, Brent crude's target price is $80. From $97 to $80.17, the downside is $80.
But don't get too excited too soon. Goldman Sachs clearly stated this is a "downside scenario." And the "upside scenario" is $120.
Upside potential is $23, downside is $17. The risk-reward ratio is asymmetric—and the kind of asymmetry that is unfavorable.
Position Suggestions (Don't Treat It as Nonsense):
First, don't heavily bet on the direction before the conflict becomes clear.
This is not a technical problem that can be solved. The traffic conditions in the Strait of Hormuz do not depend on your MACD golden cross.
Second, targeting $75,000.
This is currently the strongest support level. If it breaks below with high volume—decisively reduce your position. Don't hesitate, don't fantasize about "waiting a little longer." What you might get is 72,000.
Third, when oil prices signal a peak, you can try a light position and go long.
What counts as a top signal? Brent crude oil quickly retreated from above $100, closed declining for two consecutive days, or there may be clear signs of diplomatic easing.
Light position. Try going long. If you're wrong, cut it. Don't hold on.
Risk Warning (this is the most important):
Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent crude price target to $120.
It's not about panicking. It's about sobering you up.
Under the dual pressures of oil prices and interest rate hikes, surviving is more important than betting correctly.
Your position is your oxygen in the market.
Don't burn it all out.
$BTC$XAU$BZ #美伊冲突升级, the price of 100 yuan per yuan coexists with signals of negotiation
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