Many people thought September 15 was the "final vote" on the CLARITY bill.
Wrong.
Completely wrong.
September 15 is just the cloture vote—the end of the debate vote.
Simply put: it is a gateway that determines whether a bill can enter the discussion and amendment.
Even if this hurdle is crossed, there are still full house debates, amendment battles, and coordination with the House version—every step could go wrong.
On September 15, the focus was not on whether the bill passed, but on whether Trump and the Democrats could compromise on moral terms.
Take a step back, and the sea is wide and the sky is vast; If you can't retreat, there will be no more opportunities in 2026.
First, let's clarify what exactly to invest on September 15
At 2:15 PM Eastern Time on September 15, the Senate resumed.
Majority leader John Thune has filed a motion to terminate the debate.
60 votes are needed to pass.
The Republican Party holds only 53 seats in the Senate.
This means—at least seven Democrats need to defect before the bill can enter the discussion stage.
This is not the final vote. This is just the ticket.
But if you can't even get a ticket, the bill will die right at the starting line.
The real fatal point: the moral clause
Why has the bill been stuck for so long?
The vote should have been held before the August recess, but it has been delayed until now.
The core reason lies in one — moral clause.
The Democrats are calling for stricter ethical clauses to limit Trump and his family's interests in the crypto space.
Specifically: requiring the President and other federal officials to divest ownership shares in digital asset companies—if the value exceeds $1 million and they account for more than 10% of the company.
They even require holdings worth over $15,000 to be placed in blind trusts or directly divested.
Tillis and Gallego submitted the wording of the new moral clause to the White House at the end of July.
But the White House has yet to make a public statement.
South Dakota Republican Senator Rounds said the outlook is "not optimistic."
Maryland Democratic Senator Alsobrooks made it clear: she will not support stricter ethical clauses.
Tillis himself said, "I would vote to enter the debate on the CLARITY Act, but without a bipartisan ethical agreement, I would not support its final passage." ”
On one hand, they must strictly adhere to ethics, but on the other, they refuse to accept it—this is a deadlock.
The time window is terrifyingly narrow
Even if the termination debate passes on September 15, the Senate will have only about 14 working days left until September 30.
The House of Representatives was even more ruthless—canceling eight voting days in the last two weeks of September.
Chainlink's Chief Legal Officer called the delay "devastating."
Cynthia Lummis's warning is even more alarming: if the bill fails to pass this Congress, the next real legislative opportunity may not come until 2030.
Not 2027, not 2028—it's 2030.
In the fourth year.
The entire industry waits another four years without a federal regulatory framework.
The industry is fighting hard, but no one is giving in
On August 19, Trump convened senior executives at the White House to exert pressure.
On August 20, the leaders of the four major giants—Coinbase's Armstrong, Ripple's Garlinghouse, a16z's Dixon, and Kraken's Sethi—met with Commerce Secretary Lutnick.
Armstrong publicly expressed confidence that the bill would receive "over 60 votes."
Trump himself called the CLARITY Act "a very powerful structural piece of legislation that will put us ahead of China."
Paradigm's Grieve said, "This thing isn't dead yet, absolutely not." ”
But the problem is—no matter how loudly you shout, if you don't have enough votes, it's still not enough.
Market data forecasting shows that the probability of the bill passing within 2026 has dropped from over 50% in July to below 20% currently, with some figures even dropping to 15%.
The pass odds on Polymarket are also only around 16%.
The market speaks with money: not optimistic.
What should you watch on September 15?
Don't focus on whether it "passes" or not.
Look at three things:
First, the vote count. If they can't even gather 60 votes—the bill will be dead. Concerns have already begun to emerge within the Republican Party.
Second, the White House's attitude. Will the Trump team accept the moral clause? Tillis said bluntly: "If the White House has no interest in bridging the ethical clause, it will fail." ”
Third, the Democrats' bottom line. How much are they willing to compromise on ethical terms? Or is it that with the midterm elections approaching, they simply don't want Trump to win this legislative victory?
The last sentence
On September 15, the focus was not on whether the bill passed or not.
The question is whether Trump and the Democrats can each compromise on moral terms.
Take a step back, and the world is vast.
Can't back out—
No more chances in 2026.
The entire crypto industry may not wait until 2030.
In the fourth year.
$BTC$ETH$ZEC #CLARITY法案9月15日闯关, 60 votes became the key
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