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$BTC The bull market has not yet been confirmed Four days ago, I talked about the chart for short-term holders, and the momentum has already turned positive. Today's chart uses the same algorithm, switching to long-term holders The blue line is LTH-MVRV, the floating profit multiple for long-term holders. The orange line is its own 365-day moving average. The blue line fills green above and red below Look at the right, it's still red The blue line is indeed turning upward, but it's still stuck under the orange line and hasn't gone up. And the orange line is still moving downward Looking back at history, from 2016 to 2017, 2019, 2020 to 2021, and 2023 to 2024, every real bull market was a patch of green. But in 2014, 2018, 2022, and now, all are in the red So the current situation is this: short-term momentum turns green, long-term momentum remains red New money is starting to make money, but the trend of old money hasn't yet reversed This is not contradictory; it is the normal sequence of each turn. Short-term action first, long-term action later. But "first-act" and "confirmation" are two different things I said in August the bear market ended, but I don't change that judgment. Prices reclaiming the 200-day moving average, spot demand turning positive, miners stopping selling—all of these hold true But from the end of the bear market to the confirmation of the bull market, there is a red mark in between When it turns green, I'll call it a bull market again Until then, I still say: trust the direction, don't rush the pace #加密财库分化: Buy coins or buyback? #CLARITY法案9月15日闯关, 60 votes is key