PPI and CPI remain firm, with expectations for a rate hike in September rising.
BTC had already lost momentum near 80K, and every rally felt like a test—volume couldn't keep up, and the rally was snatched up by the bears.
ETH is weaker, the exchange rate is sluggish, and the ecosystem narrative is temporarily unable to drive the price.
But there's a subtle signal—
BTC ETFs saw outflows for four consecutive days, with only 13.29 million outflows on Friday, a sharp 95% drop from the previous day's 283 million. Outflows have clearly slowed. ETH is even more dramatic, with a net inflow of 216 million on the same day, marking four consecutive weeks of weekly net inflows. Funds are rotating from BTC to ETH.
Market view:
$BTC 77,200, support at 76,000, resistance between 78,000 and 80,000.
$ETH 2520, support at 2500, resistance between 2600-2700.
After ZEC's sharp rise, the risk of profit-taking is increasing, so I remain bearish
Next, focus on three things:
Whether CPI and PPI have confirmed cooling; Has the ETF ended its bleeding? Can BTC hold above the key moving average with volume? Of all three, one is missing, so I can only handle with light positions.
The probability of a rate hike is 90%, and the FOMC has two days left, but even a 90% hike won't move the market. If 76,000 can be held, it means the bottom support is strong.
My approach: Buy on dips at 76,000/2,500 in batches, sell as much as possible after FOMC hits, short sell, and try to push prices higher, with light positions and stop-losses.
#PPI. After the CPI was released, many institutions raised their expectations for a rate hike in September
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4 50 million USD
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