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September 14 - September 20 Global Macro Guidance: The End of Rate Hikes! Consecutive Decisions by the US and Japan Central Banks, Global Liquidity Faces a Real Stress Test This Week's Macro Logic Chain: High oil prices → Sticky inflation → Fed rate hike → BOJ rate hike → Narrowing US-Japan interest rate spread → Accelerated unwinding of carry trades → Global liquidity tightening → Liquidity diversion → Deleveraging and repricing of risk assets After last week's CPI, the probability of a September rate hike rose to around 88.5%, and the media and market have begun to define this week as the Fed's first rate hike in 2026. Meanwhile, the probability of a BOJ rate hike is also very high, and the market expects the BOJ to continue with consecutive rate hikes! 1. Whether the Fed will hike rates is no longer the core issue; how to interpret the post-hike situation is the key! #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ 1. August CPI data rose 0.3% month-over-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%. After strong employment, there is insufficient evidence that inflation is cooling, which is the core reason for the surge in September rate hike probability. 2. Currently, CME shows an 88.5% probability of a rate cut; as long as the probability is between 80%-90%, it means the market has basically locked in and started preliminary pricing. Therefore, besides whether there will be a rate hike, the focus this week is on whether the September dot plot shows the possibility of a second rate hike this year and how Waller describes energy inflation and future policy direction. 3. I categorize possible scenarios into three types: dovish hike, hawkish hike, and unexpected no hike. a. Dovish hike, confirming a 25 basis point rate increase