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ETH at $2720, are you chasing it? First, look at the surface: up 10% in the past week, 3% in 24 hours, peaked at 2749, OKX perpetual at 2720. Daily volume breakout through 2550-2600, pullback confirmation, structure indeed turned bullish. But RSI is close to 70, 1-hour upper shadows increasing, visible selling pressure at 2745-2750. Trend turned bullish, but chasing highs short-term is just giving away your position. First thing: Rate hike landed, ETH didn’t crash, why panic? On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25bp, the first time in 2023, with Chair Warsh hawkish, dot plot may signal another hike. In the past, ETH would have crashed hard. But this time? ETH’s volatility is less than BTC, SOL, XRP; after the hike, it rebounded with ETF inflows and short squeeze. Negative news landed, market didn’t buy it. The ones who should panic are shorts, not longs. Second thing: 35% of circulating ETH staked, whales and ETFs buying, but you’re waiting for a crash. 43.2 million ETH staked, accounting for 35.4% of supply. 1.75 million entered the queue, only 131k exited, activation wait over 30 days. Less ETH in the market, and it’s locked up. Meanwhile, BitMine increased holdings by 27.6k last week, total 5.98 million, 4.9% of circulating, mostly staked. On September 18, ETF net inflow was 143.8 million, BlackRock contributed 114 million, ending three consecutive days of outflows. Third thing: Glamsterdam upgrade is in testing, but don’t mistake testing for mainnet. Glamsterdam upgrade entered critical testing, Sepolia testnet on October 6, mainnet in Q4. Core is ePBS, gas limit moving from 60 million toward 200 million, reducing fees, improving parallel processing. Plus SEC’s five-year innovation exemption allowing public chains to tokenize US stocks, ETH benefits directly as RWA settlement layer. But note: this is a mid-term narrative, not a reason for a pump tomorrow. Bull vs Bear, you decide On one side: Rate hike landed, ETH didn’t crash, very resilient 35% of circulating supply staked, supply tightening Whales and ETFs buying, exchange net outflows Glamsterdam upgrade + SEC RWA exemption, strong mid-term narrative Funding rates positive but not extreme, short liquidations pushing price up On the other side: RSI overbought, clear selling pressure at 2745-2760 Short-term profit-taking piled up, acceleration phase partly done Upgrade not on mainnet yet, ETF inflows not continuous Macro still tight, rate hike expectations not fully gone Resistance above: 2745-2760 → 2800 → 2950-3000 Support below: 2680-2700 → 2640-2655 → 2550-2560 Trading strategy Short-term players: First buy point 2680-2700 on pullback and stabilization (1H no new lows, volume contraction then expansion), second buy point 2640-2655. Stop loss 2615-2630. Target 2760→2800. If volume supports above 2760, chase second leg, move stop loss above 2700. Swing players: Wait for pullback to 2640-2680 to build position in batches, target 2950-3000. If daily close breaks below 2550, mid-term structure weakens, exit first. How to short: Only two scenarios for light short positions—multiple failures to break 2745-2760 with 1H engulfing/long upper shadows, target 2680/2640; or break below 2640 with failed rebound. Otherwise, don’t fight the trend by topping out. The main trend is still an upward rebound. ETH isn’t not rising, you just bought at the first upper shadow after breakout. 2720 is not an entry price, it’s an observation price. You mistook a short squeeze rebound for a bull market start? Don’t cut losses during consolidation, don’t chase highs during acceleration. At 2720, do you dare chase or wait for a pullback? $BTC $ETH $ZEC