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$BTC Scenario Simulation (Next 4–8 Weeks) Strong Scenario (Probability 30–35%): Spot ETF funds continue to flow in, BTC daily closes consecutively above $80,000 and breaks through $82,931, invalidating the head and shoulders bearish structure. Market sentiment turns fully bullish, targeting $90,000–$100,000, with a challenge to the ATH within the year not impossible. Trigger factors: substantial progress on the CLARITY Act, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, ETF weekly net inflows remain high. Base Scenario (Probability 45–50%): Price oscillates between $70,000–$80,000 to digest the recent gains, testing the effectiveness of $71,500 (200-day moving average) and the $68,749–$69,061 support zone. If it holds above $66,885, the medium term remains bullish; if it breaks below, caution is needed for a return to the $61,500–$64,000 range. Weak Scenario (Probability 15–20%): Rebound is blocked at $80,000–$83,000, with bulls taking profits combined with macro headwinds, price quickly falls below $66,885 and tests $61,500–$62,500 or even $58,000. If $58,000 fails to hold, the head and shoulders structure restarts, with an extreme target of $41,266. Trigger factors: regulatory bill stagnation, Federal Reserve hawkish surprise, long-term yields surge again.