陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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Taking advantage of the weekend's lack of volatility, I want to record a few thoughts before I forget.
1. This wave of decline is still led by the AI sector's storage segment, dragging the overall US stock market down. The reason for the pullback is that the previous rise was too much. The pullback is following an ABC pattern, currently in wave C, and basically all the stocks I follow are moving this way (using the US market as an example); QQQ shows the same pattern.
PS: Micron, SanDisk, Old Man (a nickname), and Intel's wave B are considered relatively strong B waves, especially Old Man. Theoretically, wave C might not break below wave A's low point.
2. There are many voices in the market saying AI has entered a bear market, but I don't agree. I hope idle people can screenshot this post and also screenshot those bearish analysts for future verification. Taking Old Man as an example, I believe after wave C's correction, it will break new highs.
3. A point to consider: the main index (referred to as "big cake") is very strong, but the hardware sector is pulling the US stock index down. In Q3, it has dropped 7% from the top, and the Nasdaq is down 6%. Honestly, if the Nasdaq falls to -10%, I don't think the big cake can hold above 80,000; that would be disrespectful to the Nasdaq. Since 57 (probably referring to a date or level), the overall Fibonacci retracement 0.382 is at 76,060. As long as it stays above this, the big cake can be considered very strong.
4. Many altcoins in the crypto space have shown signs of support, such as Circle, Dogecoin, Bobo, ZEC, ZAMA, etc. The most noticeable are Circle and ZAMA (pulling up to create space for a rebound), while Dogecoin, Bobo, and ZEC have fallen to structural support and are defending the bottom strongly (low volatility, when the main coin stops falling, it immediately rebounds). But the premise is that the main coin cannot crash hard; I think a small dip is okay.
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1. Due to volatility factors, it is foreseeable that after bottoming, the US stock AI sector stocks will rebound or reverse with a large gain (explosive power) outperforming the main index (the big cake). Although some strong altcoins might not be weaker than them, I think now is not the time to guess the bottom on the left side. Since the space has already dropped, it's safer to trade on the right side.
2. Chart 2 is a schematic of a major bear market.
3. I reviewed my positions: spot is full, contracts untouched.
I thought for a long time but couldn't find any room for optimization.
Switch positions? From crypto to US stock AI, very conflicted;
Take some profits and keep some cash? Don't want to do that;
Leverage up? Not yet, feels like the timing isn't right;
So I can only hold steady.
The only thing I did was close some leveraged positions I tried these days, small profits and losses, nothing worth mentioning (gold, oil, altcoins, AI).
4. There is no market that always rises or always falls. Next week, the US stock market will most likely have a decent rebound, but this is only an internal rebound of wave C, not the end of wave C. After the rebound, it will most likely break new lows again.
Then we can observe more carefully to see if any opportunities to go long appear.
1. Someone asked, Guilin, you keep pumping BTC every day, why isn't BTC rising? Brother, I beg you, don't act like an idiot. The Nasdaq has been down -2%+ all day, BTC holding at around -0.5% with such fluctuations is actually a strong performance. Shouldn't you look at the market comprehensively?
2. I like to call the recent market "people hiding from the bear market in crypto" (familiar, right?). My spot holdings are only three: $BTC, $ETH, and $CRCL. Except for $CRCL which is more volatile and hovering around my cost price, BTC and ETH are steady as old dogs. Looking at the outside market, it's already a bloodbath. Honestly, I'm quite satisfied with their recent performance.
3. I'm also very anxious, anxious because I have no money left; Intel, Qualcomm/SanDisk, Micron, Mywell/Old Mantou, COHR/SOXX, SOXL/if that doesn't work, look at MAG7. In my opinion, US tech stocks have fallen to such a state that they are really attractive now;
And those with bigger fluctuations, like SanDisk and Old Mantou, once they rebound, will definitely run stronger than BTC, but I really have no money to bottom-fish, very anxious. Whenever the market drops, everything looks like a buy, everything looks cheap.
4. A while ago, I set a standard for myself: BTC and ETH are my core holdings, unshakable; $CRCL has a cost basis of 80, with a target of 120, a 50% increase. If it can run over 50%, that's awesome; if it can't, no need to watch. But honestly, it seems many stocks can run over 50% in the future, unless $CRCL performs beyond my expectations.
5. I dare not use leverage now. With the Nasdaq like this, semiconductors like this, leading the whole market like this, and oil prices like this again, my spot positions are already full. If I use leverage on the left side, I’m afraid I won’t know how I’ll die.
6. Finally, I want to say, brother, I’m really anxious. There’s gold everywhere, but no cash.
7. Last but not least, some good news: WTI oil is just one dollar away from 100.
Today is a day when Americans can fly.
Tesla $TSLA has its earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday, October 21; I have shared my views on the #OKX planet, teachers are welcome to follow.
#巴克莱推演SpaceX收购特斯拉方案
Tesla TSLA's earnings report is after the market closes on October 21, and today Elon Musk released the flying little car, which went viral across the internet. It must be said, when it comes to social media, Elon Musk is the true originator.
1. I need memory, but memory is too expensive? Easy, send out two tweets on X to drive the price down.
2. TSLA's earnings report is coming soon, what to do? Easy, show the backflip little car after the press conference.
Actually, Tesla has always been a rather special presence within MAG7. Look at its PE ratio—how is it a car manufacturing company? Wall Street has always valued Tesla with the most imaginative valuation.
From a technical perspective:
Since Tesla peaked in 2021, it has been moving within a large range of oscillation, somewhat similar to ETH in the crypto world. The reason is that early expectations were set too high, hitting the ceiling directly. So from 2021 until now, it has been undergoing a digestion phase;
Why hasn't it collapsed despite this? The core reason is one person: Elon Musk. Although he often brags, you have to know that up to now, most of the things he bragged about have basically come true; the timing may not be exact, but the results are guaranteed, and he keeps his word.
Next, I think the biggest highlight of the earnings report is not the data itself, but whether or not the merger with SPCX is mentioned. If viewed from the merger narrative, then the optimal solution is SPCX's stock price rising and TSLA's stock price falling.
Well said, ask yourself, have you mentally prepared for this? Do you have the ability to hold positions? Yes, the ability to hold positions is a rare trading skill.
If you don't, don't take it; go play contracts, do swing trading, look for stocks or coins with relatively low volatility and more regular patterns, find tickets that can give you positive feedback in the short term; for something like the circle, looking closer, most of the time the negative feedback you get will definitely outweigh the positive feedback.
This kind of circle movement is not suitable for most people. (The green line below)
wufantouzi
Don't think that crcl will be below 80 for the last time today
And don't think it will take off tomorrow
These are all unreliable predictions
Although sometimes I have these fantasies myself
I've posted charts before
Look for the candlesticks of tsla, btc, and Nvidia during their consolidation periods
Who knows which time was tsla's last $20 billion market cap
Who knows which time was btc's last $1000 unit price
Who knows which time was Nvidia's last $100 billion market cap
There have been so many times the price was broken through
Maybe as many as 100 times
Which means you will be provoked 100 times
But as long as you bought at this price
And held until today
You've made enough profit
So don't think you bought at the bottom price
Don't expect it to take off 5 minutes after you buy
There will always be that one time
When it passes the $100 unit price, the $200 unit price
And never looks back
But which time it is
Only hindsight knows
I don't know if Chinese people can fly, but Elon Musk @elonmusk can really fly;
Watching this video, I can only say the future will come faster than we imagine.
$TSLA $SPCX
The only advice is: if the experience with these two stocks isn't good, you don't have to play, but don't short them, especially don't short Elon Musk; after all, this guy is already beyond the dimension of Earthlings;
Most people might smile slightly when they hear him talk about Mars colonization, assuming he's bragging, but is it possible that he's actually just expressing his true inner thoughts?
Chen Guilin's Trading Notes:
October 16, 2026
Case: Why stop loss even when you know it's the floor price? $LITE:
1. Trading process: For this trade, Old Mantou's single calculation was: the first wave entered at 925, exited at 1100 (spot stock); then the contract was taken over at 980, stopped loss at 830; overall loss about 1000U, roughly a free play;
2. Technical analysis: The red and green lines in the chart represent Old Mantou's two different mid-term movement judgments and hypotheses.
The red line indicates a large-scale correction, the green line indicates a new upward trend;
The reason for taking over at 980 (a bit rushed indeed): ① based on Old Mantou's past behavior, after a continuous drop of over 10%, a rebound probability is high; ② continuing the previous trade (already earned nearly 20% T), continuing the upward push, continuing green wave 3.
Red line is ABC, green line is 12345, so I fully caught the internal wave 3 of the green line after black wave 1, then took over during black wave 2's pullback, aiming for black waves 3,4,5, even expanding to green waves 3,4,5. This trade has a hard stop loss point at the start of the black line, which is 830. (If it's wave 2, it cannot break below the start of wave 1).
So, why did I take over at 980 (because above 830 is covered by my profit), and why stop loss? Because the trend has turned bad, the green line was falsified.
Now that the green line is falsified and the red line is in play, red wave C actually has infinite possibilities:
1. Most likely red wave B is strong, so red wave C is weak;
2. But it's also possible that red wave B breaks a 5-wave top, and red wave C breaks a 4-wave bottom in a tricky way;
3. In short, it can be vertical or a sideways grind, we cannot predict, but we can predict that it is indeed wave C, a correction of the same level as wave A from May to late July.
Since it is the same level, a correction, and the initial expectation of this trade (to push upward) is different, stop loss is only a matter of timing but definitely necessary. After all, if you don't exit, holding a position means risk, which controls your mind and leads to illusions: winning is luck, losing more is the norm.
Besides, exiting doesn't mean I won't open again (that would be a new trade), nor that I won't open others.
15,000U, not a lot of money, loss is acceptable, but mindset (worth a fortune) must not be disturbed.
