星期天-77
星期天-77
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$UNI from last night to today played out a classic "scary but hard to hate" scenario.
Starting Sunday night around 9 or 10 PM, it slid down from 7.3 all the way to 6.8, touching 6.806 at 4 AM. Before I went to sleep, I glanced at it and thought, "It's over, it's going to break 7 again, no sleep tonight."
But what happened?
Before dawn, it climbed back up on its own. It kept rising until the afternoon, reaching a high of 7.486, nearly a 10% increase from the low. When I woke up this morning, I thought, wow, nothing happened, the price is even higher than before I went to bed.
Now it's at 7.35, pulling back a bit.
I realized I have a very annoying pattern: the more I want to buy in, the more it drops; by the time I hesitate and decide, it bounces back. Same this time — when it was at 6.8, I almost put my hand in, then pulled back. Now looking at 7.35, I want to chase but feel reluctant; if I don't, I'm afraid it will rise again.
What's interesting is the contract positions: they dropped steadily when the price fell, then slowly climbed back as the price rose. It feels like washing out one group and letting another group in. I'm not sure, just a feeling.
Last week I was complaining that UNI couldn't rally, and today I got proven wrong. But honestly, compared to the previous grinding, I still don't dare to take this rise seriously.
I'm not making any moves now, just watching.
Did any of you make a move around 6.8 last night? Tell me, I want to know if anyone caught it. #Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？
$ZEC has been making my heart race again these past couple of days.
On Monday early morning, it dropped all the way down to 1048. I was staring at the screen wondering if it would fall below 1000. But within a few hours, it was pulled back up to 1167, rebounding eleven percent. This coin’s temperament is just like that—daily swings of ten percent up or down are normal.
Now everyone is asking: can it break out? How high can it go?
Honestly, I don’t dare to call a target price. Look, it surged to 1650 in September, and now it’s nearly 30% lower than that. Some say this round of decline is due to excessive leverage, others worry about AI cracking encryption. But the positives for privacy coins and Grayscale’s ZEC spot ETF haven’t disappeared.
My own rough watch zones are: below 1100 to 1125, if it breaks that, then look at 1000. Above, 1200 to 1300 is a resistance zone, with 1285 being the recent high from a few days ago. Only if it can hold above 1300 can it be considered a true breakout. If it can’t hold, it will keep grinding within the range.
If you ask whether I’m bullish or bearish, I can only say: both sides have their reasons, and I don’t dare to take heavy positions on either side.
This kind of coin can turn someone from "I’m a genius" to "I’m a newbie" in just one day.
Right now, I’m just watching, neither chasing nor cutting.
Do you think $ZEC can hold above 1300 this time? Share your reasons—I want to hear different perspectives.
I was a bit stunned when I opened the daily chart on Monday morning.
$BTC at 82,489, $ETH at 2,426, both slightly up, looking pretty calm. But when I zoomed out on the chart, I realized we've been on a full roller coaster ride for over a month.
BTC surged from 62,685 all the way to 87,374, up nearly 40%. ETH was even more aggressive, jumping from 1,869 to 2,807, up 50%. At that time, if anyone said "the bull is back," I would have believed it.
Then it started to slowly give back gains.
Now BTC has retreated about 5.6% from its high, ETH nearly 14%. See, the bigger the rise, the bigger the fall; ETH has always had this temperament. When the big guy catches a cold, it gets a fever.
The most frustrating part is this kind of decline—it’s not a crash, it’s a grind. One small red candle today, one small green candle tomorrow, a lower wick pokes down then pulls back. You want to sell, but it hasn’t dropped much. You want to buy more, but you don’t know where the bottom is.
Last week I got scared twice by CPI and PPI data, now I get a bit reactive to any data day.
Tonight the US stock market is opening again. Last Friday, semiconductors fell for eight consecutive days; if Monday continues that trend, the crypto market will probably shake too.
I haven’t moved my holdings, just watching.
Honestly, my biggest feeling now is: the market hasn’t crashed, but people are tired.
Do you think this is a consolidation after the rise, or a shakeout before another surge?
$ZEC's rebound this time didn't even reach the upper Bollinger band at 1183 before turning down, with each high lower than the last.
From 1348.89 downward, each rebound's high was around 1285, 1250, and 1183, progressively lower. This rebound starting near 1130 lost momentum after rising above the Bollinger middle band at 1157.95, currently priced at 1148, falling back below the middle band. Most of this gain has already been given back.
RSI(6) dropped to 30.12, approaching short-term oversold. Open interest remains steady around 455.71K without significant increase, indicating this decline is not driven by new money entering but more like profit-taking from the rebound funds.
My judgment: weak consolidation, bearish bias. The first support is the lower Bollinger band at 1132.95 and the low near 1130 on 10/17; if these don't hold, the previous low at 1070.32 is likely to be retested. On the upside, as long as it doesn't reclaim 1157.95, all rebounds are just technical corrections, not a sign of strength. With RSI near oversold, a short-term rebound is possible but limited to the range of 1158 to 1183.
U.S. stock markets are closed over the weekend, but my mind hasn't rested at all this weekend.
First, let's look at last night's close: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell another 3.8%, marking its eighth consecutive trading day of decline. Since October 6, it has dropped a total of 15.7%, the longest losing streak since 2008. The Nasdaq fell 2.15% yesterday, down 4.5% for the week.
Memory stocks continue to lead the decline: SK Hynix ADR dropped 6.6%, Sandisk fell 6.9%, and Micron declined 5.6%. Nvidia held up relatively well; Jensen Huang said AI chip demand is strong, but since October 6, it has also retraced about 10%.
The most outrageous is over in South Korea: SK Hynix's Korean stock price fell 31.5% over seven trading days from October 6 to 15.
Wow, with such a drop, it's really other people's accounts bleeding while mine is just watching.
Yesterday Goldman Sachs came out saying the market has overestimated the threat from Changxin, and that SK Hynix and Samsung now have a decent risk-reward profile. But the stock prices ignored that. When I read it, I thought: I wish they had said that a week earlier.
With U.S. markets closed, I actually feel more at ease. At least for these two days, I don't have to decide whether to bottom-fish or not.
Next week there's the end-of-month FOMC and a bunch of earnings reports—probably another tough battle.
I don't dare to guess; I've already learned my lesson about bottom-fishing.
Are you waiting for Monday's open, or have you already made up your mind?
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
$SNDK $MU $SKHY
$ETH bounced back from 2318 to 2458, the candlestick looks like a reversal, but ETF funds are running out.
In the past two trading days, nearly $190 million net outflow from the US spot ETH ETF, with BlackRock's ETHA alone withdrawing 44.4 million.
What is happening on-chain at the same time?
A giant whale has sold 1601 BTC over 5 consecutive days, converting it into 132 million USDC, and then bought 53,095 ETH.
On one side, ETF holders are reducing exposure, while on-chain large funds are rotating positions.
The rebound elasticity of ETH/BTC has always been stronger—bouncing 5.5% from the low compared to BTC's 2.9%—but this time the rebound is driven by position rotation and short covering, not incremental institutional entry.
The candlestick is repairing, but the capital structure has not yet shifted. In sectors, AI, DePIN, and Layer2 have pulses, but incremental confirmation is needed.
Bitcoin fell below 80,000, and this time it's not just a matter for the crypto circle.
AI stocks evaporated over one trillion dollars in four trading days,
The Nasdaq once dropped 1.8%.
Bitcoin was dragged down.
24-hour liquidation was 937 million, with long positions accounting for 787 million.
Then it pulled back to 82,000 on its own.
#BTC财库优先股融资升温 $BTC
$SOL is currently at $101. But next Wednesday, the confirmation time on this chain will be reduced from 12.8 seconds to 0.15 seconds.
Last night, the CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, exceeding expectations; tonight, the PPI year-over-year is 6.3%, a full percentage point higher than expected. The crypto market saw $982 million liquidated in 24 hours, with 185,000 people liquidated, over 90% of whom were long positions. SOL dropped more than 4%, with futures contract liquidations around $31 million, 93% of which were longs.
Meanwhile, the US spot SOL ETF has had net outflows for 8 consecutive days, with $24.81 million outflow last week. Money on-chain is moving, macro money is moving. But there is something overlooked in the screenshot you took: the 1-hour RSI is pressed near 29, which is an extreme oversold condition—short-term bearish momentum has been excessively released.
Meanwhile, fundamental money is doing something else. Circle minted about 750 million USDC on Solana in the past 24 hours. The Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled to activate on October 21, reducing the final confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, an improvement of about 85 times.
ETF outflows reflect macro pricing, the upgrade reflects micro fundamentals. They are not on the same time dimension, but the price only reflects the former. The $100 level is not a technical level, it is a psychological level. What happens if it breaks? The market is already asking this question.
$UNI has dropped like this, isn't it going to rebound?
First, let's be clear: it hasn't been a one-way drop in the past three days; it's been oscillating between 7.23 and 7.90, with the current price at 7.43, in the lower third of that range.
RSI(6) has been pushed down to 18, the lowest in these three days, but RSI(24) is still at 41, indicating short-term oversold but not medium-term.
To see a rebound, we need to wait for a candlestick to close back above the lower boundary at 7.45; a single lower shadow doesn't count.
$SOL's movement today, I can only say: two times it surged high, two times it failed to hold.
All Sunday it hovered between 109 and 110, so flat that I was too lazy to even open it. Then that bullish candle at midnight suddenly pulled from just over 109 to 112, I was asleep and completely missed it.
Woke up in the morning and, wow, it had already finished rising.
At noon, another big bullish candle pushed it straight up to 113.4. I had already clicked into the order page, thinking maybe this time it would break through. But within two hours, bearish candles came one after another, and now it's back to 111.3, basically back to where it was at midnight.
All for nothing.
The most frustrating part is, I checked more than twenty times today, didn’t dare chase when it was rising, wanted to buy the dip when it was falling, and ended up doing nothing. If I had just honestly closed the app and slept, the result would have been the same, and I might have saved some hair.
Last week SOL dropped hard, so I really don’t trust this small rebound today. Every time I think "it's stable," it hits me like this—I’m almost developing a conditioned reflex.
Right now I’m just watching the 111 line; if it holds, I’ll consider it still consolidating, if it doesn’t, then today’s rise was for nothing.
Anyway, I’m not making a move.
Did you guys get in today? Or like me, just watching without acting?
