诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
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Saudi Arabia was hit by Houthi drones, Brent crude reached a new high of $113 this year, so inflation expectations have returned, and the probability of a rate hike before the end of the year has risen to 87%.
The crypto market got hit along with the Nasdaq, and the liquidation direction has also reversed. Last night, out of $465 million in liquidations, $427 million were long positions, with 103,000 people liquidated.
The ETF situation is even more ironic: the $BTC spot ETF saw inflows of $1.07 billion over three days, with $528 million on Wednesday alone, yet the price dropped from 85,000 to 81,000.
Money is coming in but can't push the price up, indicating that sell orders are more urgent than buy orders. Two key levels for BTC to watch: the mid-term holders' cost is 86,700, a major resistance level; below that, 80,000 is the cost zone for ETFs and treasury companies, and if this zone is lost, it will likely head straight to 75,000.
The $ETH ETF finally saw some return money, with a net inflow of $14.9 million yesterday. Technically, RSI is 35.4, MA20 at 2495 is pressing from above, and the 200-day moving average at 2302 is the last line of defense. Today's low of 2360 has already touched the doorstep.
For $ZEC, out of the $13 million liquidations last night, shorts accounted for 76%, but in the last hour, it reversed with longs making up 95%. Even more intense, a giant whale short took a $35 million loss to close out.
RSI is 44.9, MA20 at 1222 is right underfoot, and MA30 at 1302 is the ceiling.
+25.09%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 18:39
1.00 has become the ceiling that $SUI bulls can't break through; technically, it's a typical integer-level compression with no clear direction. It is currently stuck just below the 1.00 integer threshold, RSI at 47.6 neutral, but all three moving averages (MA7 0.995, MA20 1.06, MA30 1.09) are pressing down from above.
$FIL's technical breakdown triggered a volume sell-off, forming a weak breakdown structure: a 15% plunge over 7 days, breaking below the 0.992 78.6% Fibonacci key level (with 33% volume surge at that time). Although RSI at 46.3 is not yet oversold, MA20 at 1.07 is pressing down from above.
$WLD surged strongly due to concentrated speculation by Korean retail investors (WLD tops the Korean crypto attention index, with local trading volume 20 times the global average).
Technically, it is the only one among the three standing above all three moving averages (MA7/MA20/MA30 all below 0.52-0.53), RSI at 55.4 is relatively strong, and the 30-day range position is 62.9% — the rebound structure of +5.6% over 7 days and +9.1% over 14 days remains intact. Today's 2% drop is just a normal pullback after a big surge.
However, everyone should note that tomorrow (10/24) about $59 million worth of tokens will be unlocked, so be cautious.
Today's meme market has improved quite a bit:
$DOGE has stopped falling, but the structure hasn't been repaired. RSI is 38.8 at a low level, price is close to MA7 (0.0799) with a slight 1% increase, but MA20 (0.0843) is still 5% above, and the 30-day range position is 17.6%.
$DOOD today saw the first large bearish candle pullback after a surge, down 16.6% (plunging straight down from 0.00293 intraday, with a daily amplitude of 26%), still up +36.5% over 7 days, RSI 52 neutral, price remains above MA7 (0.001875) but the 30-day range position is only 15.4%.
Another reason for the decline is that there is selling pressure of 690 million tokens on-chain waiting to be sold on exchanges, accounting for 6.9% of total supply.
$IRYS, as a small cap with a circulating market cap of only $12.5 million, had about $680 million turnover in 24h today, forcibly pushing it up.
It rose 88% today, +187% over 7 days, RSI 90.8 severely overbought, today's high is a 30-day new high, all moving averages far below — a vertical parabolic curve, not forming any conventional technical structure.
-49.90%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 18:44
$XRP is showing a weak rebound today, not a reversal. RSI is 40.9, the price is just sitting on MA7 (1.3161), but MA20 (1.3717) is still pressing down from above by 3.8%, with a 30-day range position at 17.5%.
The reason is that XRP has no new story to attract funds: the SEC has paused further progress on XRP ETFs, and XRPL on-chain payment volume is 30% below the 30-day average.
$BCH is very strong today, recovering MA7/MA20 and a series of short-term moving averages in one day, with both 7-day and 14-day turning positive. But RSI is 43.8, and around 291 above is the 200-day line, so it’s unlikely to break the resistance in the short term.
Moreover, BCH futures OI increased by +5.97% in one day, funding rate is neutral, and long positions account for 61.7%, indicating new positions are pushing it up, not short covering.
$OKB rose a bit after the morning complaints, but there’s no fundamental change. 24h trading volume shrank to 8.2 million USD, 30-day range position is 7.1%, still stuck at the 110 floor, not breaking out of the downtrend channel.
The reason is that the SEC naming OKXICE, X Layer Q3 data doubling, and other positive news all materialized within two weeks, so there’s no new story in the short term.
$PEPE is still strong! After a one-day pullback yesterday, the rise continued. As expected, yesterday's judgment was correct, even driving $DOGE up a bit. However, it still can't match the vertical surge of the meme coin $IRYS:
PEPE rose 11% today, up 23.7% this week. Today's high is a 30-day high, with the price above all three moving averages (MA7/MA20/MA30 all below), RSI at 63.6, slightly hot but not overbought yet. This is a classic momentum breakout structure.
DOGE rose 1.37% today but remains weak overall: RSI at 38.3 low level, price sticking just above MA7 (0.0799), still 5% away from MA20 (0.0843), 30-day range position at 16.9%, and both 7-day and 14-day are negative. Today's red candle can only be considered a weak rebound following market sentiment.
IRYS is truly impressive, with the price nearly doubling in three days, surging 66.6% today, all moving averages far below (MA7 only 0.018). RSI at 90, today's high of 0.03656 is the 30-day highest point, intraday amplitude 99.7%. This is a textbook vertical parabolic move, not a trend but a one-time event-driven pulse. But everyone should also note, the pullback is estimated to start at around 30%.
-49.42%
Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 17:43
A leading perpetual contract DEX $HYPE, a leading spot DEX $UNI, both are leaders, so why do I only dare to hold HYPE?
Because HYPE can enjoy the project's dividends, but UNI may not:
In this downturn, HYPE is the only one with continuous buying pressure, basically ranking first on Tokenomist's buyback list for a long time, with the strongest fundamentals. Unfortunately, the FDV ceiling suppresses buying pressure, so buyers hesitate to enter.
Now the price has dropped below MA7 (79.03) for the first time, and the 30-day range position has recovered from 10.4% to 13.4%. But the RSI at 36.9 is the lowest among all, and it has still fallen 7.7% over 14 days, indicating weakness. It can only consolidate at the bottom before reclaiming 83.5.
But UNI doesn't even have empowerment. Not to mention that the fee switch for the v4 project itself is still pending, even if the project makes money, without a clear mandatory buyback and burn mechanism, UNI token holders may not benefit.
However, UNI's performance today is not bad, up 2.56%, with the price just crossing above MA7 (7.233). RSI at 39.9 is still low, and the 30-day range position is 14.8%. After rising from 6.89 today and holding, it shows there is buying support; the next resistance is MA20 at 7.60.
$ASTER is purely a dull knife cutting losses from unlocking. If it weren't for BN's investment, I dare say few people would touch it. The price has been stuck between MA7 (0.7061) and MA20 (0.7069) for two days, with a 24-hour amplitude of only 2.2% and trading volume shrunk to 600,000 USD. RSI at 49.5 is decent, probably because no one is paying attention, so there is no panic selling.
+17.39%
Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 16:56
Every round of decline is actually a buying opportunity for the big players. Since yesterday, 40 big wallets have collectively bought 9,458 $BTC — truly wealthy.
The last major drop was the same; Tesla and SpaceX were buying BTC, and their earnings report yesterday showed BTC made a $288 million profit in Q3.
Fortunately, BTC stabilized today, with the price still pressured by three moving averages (MA7 82160, MA20 82860, MA30 83300), but the intraday volatility narrowed to 2.1%, a typical sideways consolidation. Breaking below 80925 would open the downside, while rising above the MA20 at 82860 would signal a recovery of the uptrend.
$ETH’s RSI is 38.4, the lowest among the three. It has rebounded twice but was pushed back by the MA20 (2497). Luckily, the 200-day moving average at 2300 is providing support. It’s currently weak but not broken, showing a range-bound pattern. The 200-day moving average is now the last technical defense line for ETH.
$SOL’s RSI is 41.2, with the price closely rubbing against the MA7 (104.8) in a narrow range, just 4% above the 30-day low of 100.42. Today’s movement was slightly stronger, a normal oversold rebound. Only if it rises above 110 will there be a chance for an independent rally.
+23.66%
Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 14:51
Why is AI being devalued?
Oil prices rise → inflation expectations increase → global risk assets get devalued. AI is the sector with the largest gains and the most severe valuation bubble this year, so it’s dropping sharply. This post discusses 3 AI tokens: $TAO, $FET, $RENDER
TAO actually produces output. Bittensor breaks AI work into subnetworks, miners provide models, and only good work gets tokens. It has the most solid fundamentals among the three.
TAO current price is 260.5, already at a new low, with all three moving averages above the price (MA7 266, MA20 278, MA30 288). Fortunately, RSI is 43.4, indicating the decline hasn’t accelerated yet; only if it breaks 252.6 will the drop be considered accelerated.
FET is the most speculative, merged into the ASI alliance to build AI agent infrastructure, with a market cap of 500 million, but its real-world adoption lags far behind the narrative, and the agent is not yet established.
FET current price is 0.1875, just 5% above the 30-day low of 0.1783. RSI is 39.8, and the MA20 at 0.2124 is only 13% above the current price.
RENDER offers decentralized GPU rendering, with increasing AI inference tasks running there, making its demand more solid than TAO and FET.
RENDER current price is 1.787, positioned at 18% within the 30-day range, RSI 45.5 is also the best among the three tokens. Although RENDER has a daily volatility of 6.9%, the structure is not broken.
This time I got a bit tricked by $OKB, bought quite a lot, but it kept dropping, and the rebound wasn't as good as $BNB:
OKB's success is due to regulation; X Layer's scenario expanded from crypto to US stocks, aiming to be the US stock settlement layer, betting on stricter regulation.
But its failure is also due to regulation; the SEC might classify OKB as an unregistered security, which is why OKX deliberately limits OKB's empowerment.
OKB's three moving averages (MA7 113.9, MA20 120.7, MA30 120.7) are all above the price, and the 30-day low of 110 is near today's low of 110.1, basically walking along the bottom of the range. RSI is only 40.9, indicating weakness.
Hyperliquid also wants to comply; last week it submitted five suggestions to the SEC to exclude airdrops and programmed buyback burns from the securities definition.
But unfortunately, the trend is not on $HYPE; RSI 35.2 is the lowest among the three coins, and the price is also near the 30-day low of 76.15. Although it hasn't dropped much this week, the daily average volatility narrowed to 3.3%, indicating no one is paying attention, and it will likely continue a low-volume decline.
BNB is still consistently building its ecosystem and public chain. The current price is 738.5, the only one among the three coins above MA7 (729.5), RSI 46.1 is near the midpoint, and the 30-day range position is 31.4%; structurally, it is in a recovery consolidation but has yet to break through MA20 (744.4).
+50.16%
Snapshot at Oct 22, 2026, 18:44
Institutions are also retail investors; in the first three days when $BTC was rising sharply, they bought aggressively, totaling 1.07 billion, but when the market dropped yesterday, they cut losses and ran off with 380 million.
80,000 is the last defensive line for BTC bulls. The three moving averages (MA7 82168, MA20 82866, MA30 83303) are all above the price and arranged in a bearish sequence. Under this structure, if 83,000 cannot be reclaimed, it will just be a rhythm of oscillating downward.
ETH's ETF is too weak. This week BTC has recovered 700 million, but it is still in a net outflow state of 140 million. Basically, it can be abandoned this month.
$ETH's rebound this time can't even reclaim MA7 (2421), which is 3.4% lower than MA20 (2497); RSI 38.4 is the lowest among the three coins; the 30-day price range position is 21%, also the weakest among the three coins.
$ZEC's trend is actually good; the structure is not broken yet, currently in the bottoming phase. Looking back today, it has already risen 100 times from last year until now, which is amazing!
ZEC surged and then pulled back yesterday, but the price still stands firm above MA7 (1193) and MA20 (1222), the only one among the three coins that hasn't broken the mid-term moving averages. Its 30-day range is from 1048 to 1697, with a width of about 62%; with the same stop-loss distance, its volatility is several times that of BTC.
+23.59%
Snapshot at Oct 23, 2026, 11:11
